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hey everyone in this video we're going to talk about Tesla all things Tesla very briefly touching on the fundamentals essentially just the setup of of what is leading to where we are now but most importantly what are the charts showing us as far as current price action is this a good time to buy what kind of game plan strategy should you have if you are interested in looking to buy and if you're looking to Short what you're looking for as well we're going to look at it from all aspects here so essentially Tesla and Elon Musk situation has been and again this is some opinion and speculation as well but we know Elon Musk sold a bunch of shares we could see it happening we could speculate that that was going on and if you were watching The Daily Market videos that we do the day or two before it came out the form fours that he was selling we were speculating you know it looks like Elon Musk is selling and we could say that because the relative weakness of Tesla comparative to the broader market and I'm always watching spy QQQ Tesla Amazon Apple all these names all day trading and so it becomes very apparent when you know spy and QQQ are up one and a half percent and Tesla's down six percent and that happened a couple times while Elon Musk was selling and again it's to to see that magnitude of Break In correlation between Tesla and the broader Market you know there is massive volume behind that happening and and it is you know Tesla makes up a significant portion of those ETFs it's in the top I forget what it's been moving around but I believe it's in the top five Holdings for both spy and QQQ so that even strengthens its correlation where they roughly are doing the same thing Tesla magnifies the move in terms of more volatility in both directions but again it's very unusual and even yesterday in the video yesterday I was talking about how the fact that we are this beat up on the daily time frame if you told me the S P 500 would be up one and a half percent and that Tesla would be up less than that and it ended up you know flat pretty much yesterday I would say there's a five percent chance of that happening and it happened which tells me still there is downward pressure and of course today we get another huge sell-off of down 10 so what we're seeing is the exact opposite of a short squeeze there is such a thing as a long squeeze you have traders that have leveraged positions to the long side and they get liquidated and are forced to stop out and if Elon Musk is in a dark period and is not selling in the last few days there is definitely a fund that is being forced to sell whether it's a hedge fund or what again this is speculation but to see this magnitude of volume some people say oh let's just tax loss selling you don't put up this many billions of dollars today was over three billion dollars traded you don't put up that kind of volume from retail that's that's more than retail with what's going on right now we are at historical oversold RSI levels meaning look at the weekly chart the weekly RSI is just getting oversold if you look at the history of Tesla weekly RSI hitting 30 has been the best time that you could possibly buy in the history of this stock that does not mean this is going to be the same as last time that means it may be the same as last time but you can also look back at the other times that this has happened twice in the last six years and say well the macro environment is different than it was those last two times so if you are looking to go long on Tesla there is a lot of prep that you need to do as far as establishing a game plan we're going to zoom into some details and some examples of how you can do it but you need to establish is this an investment are you going to be looking to hold Tesla for multiple years if so you want to be dollar cost averaging into this fear meaning scaling in I'm gonna buy I'm gonna break up you know I want ten thousand dollars a Tesla I'm gonna break it up into two thousand dollar positions I'm gonna buy some now I'm gonna buy some in two weeks some more in two weeks doesn't matter if it's green or red I'm just gonna average in slowly dollar cost averaging look that up if that term is new to you that is one strategy for entering a long-term investment in the face of fear what we are also seeing right now back to the fundamentals is you're seeing Elon Musk selling that adds downward pressure you're seeing a lot of Longs we know that Tesla's been a cult stock with people in love with it in love with Elon and valuations through the roof and really making a case for valuations in today's day and age are different than they were back when you know Boomers were my age and I am a believer that valuations as technology and as Society continues to evolve valuations of stocks are going to shift it's not going to be our grand Pappy's but my saying is it's not your grandpappy stock market where you know all these p e ratios and all these things they definitely still matter but I do believe that we will move in the next couple of decades towards a different model of valuation because the rate of technology and how it's changing is so significant and so different and so that's been a bull's thesis well you can't value this as an automaker the Bears right now are saying we're just going back to True Value and Bill Gates in his huge hundred billion 100 million dollar shorts would say that as well and that may be the case but you're also seeing the so the the drama of Elon Musk and Twitter and taking his attention and a lot of the fervorous fan base is now starting to question Elon Musk and that's adding to the downward pressure these people that have been investing hundreds of millions or billions of dollars with Elon Musk for many years are saying hey Elon what are you doing you're really hurting the stock you're leaving us out to dry in reality if you look at how markets trade if you look at the crypto Boom the 3D printing Boom the Cannabis boom there's many Booms that you can look at the.com boom any chart that goes up that quickly and that massively to the tune of thousands and thousands of percent in a short period of time this is the six month chart if you go up thousands and thousands of percent in a couple of years eventually you're going to pull back very hard because you're not establishing significant support on the way up so you've got this battle now where some people are jumping ship the shorts are saying finally we're getting some realistic valuations of what Tesla should be valued as an automaker those that are still the fervorous fan base say it's not just an automaker we got robots we got self-driving all of that I don't care anything about as a technical Trader I'm aware of it I'm keeping one eye on it I know that if Twitter if Elon Musk tweets something it can impact the price but it's all on the charts for me and so if I'm looking for a trade and not an investment looking to play this bounce I have to have a level to play off of and what keeps me from blowing up my account as a Trader is reminding myself on every trade I can look at this and say wow we're crushed we're down so much we're down 33 in the last nine or ten days and that may be the case but I am constantly always reminding myself these are just numbers flashing in cyberspace we have a very heightened emotional market right now Tesla is extremely heightened emotionally and we can see valuations and extremes to the downside just like we saw to the upside again this is a long squeeze so we know on short squeezes things can get out of hand and valuations can make absolutely no sense we saw that with gme and AMC it can happen in the other direction as well so if I'm looking to play this as a bounce I have to ensure that I'm telling myself this can drop 25 percent lower than I think is the lowest bottom price that it can go to and that helps me from just from making a mistake essentially trying to play a bounce being wrong about the bottom and not stopping out of my position because I try and convince myself well we're so oversold we have to bounce soon again someone three days ago made an entry at 145 did not place a stop loss and said oh we're very oversold we're due for a bounce and now they find themselves down way more than they ever thought that they would possibly be down in two days of trading do not let that be you prepare yourself for the possibility of a 1 in 100 scenario what if Tesla goes down 10 again tomorrow I think that's extremely unlikely but I know it's possible and I have to protect against that possibility by using stop losses so you can scale in if looking for a trade but you have to know your maximum loss and place a stop I can make an entry at 125 I'll make one more at 121 and then I'll put my stop under 119 and that's the maximum amount of risk I'm willing to take I can calculate the amount of shares I'm gonna grab at those two levels I can calculate how much I will lose if that stop loss is hit and before I ever enter the trade I know what the worst case scenario of that trade will be if I stop out I will lose this amount of dollars that is worst case scenario unless we were to gap down and skip my stop which is of course something that we need to be aware of as well we know what bounce is coming soon bears are waiting for a daily bounce to go short again Tesla can bounce 20 percent before we even get to daily EMA 12 resistance and we know what daily lower high is the most likely result of the next bounce we have to see the Tesla divided by QQQ chart which shows us relative strength and weakness we have to see this chart bouncing as well if this chart is going down it tells us we are continuing to remain weaker than the NASDAQ which again is the last thing the Bulls want to see in the end key levels for me on Tesla there's not many nearby we've got the low of today of course 122.26 anything under the high of today is just an hourly lower high what a bull needs to see is a big enough hourly bounce to then look for an hourly Trend change to confirm when's the last time Tesla confirmed an hourly Trend change it tried yesterday and failed at resistance it's been a long time we have not seen an hourly higher low and higher high since we topped out back on December 9th pretty much two weeks straight of hourly downtrend so that tells me that the next time we see an hourly uptrend I can say this is different this is different than we've seen in the last two weeks but right now it's an hourly Bear Flag possible I would like to see a gap down open we oftentimes see a move get exhausted to the downside with a gap down the last day that Tesla was Green in the last nine trading days was the day the only day that it gapped down in the last nine days if we gap down I'm interested in playing a bounce I will look for a support level on the morning to be established I'll look for an entry and then my style is exiting partial position into a bounce so that I can put my stop under the low and be risk-free so we know bounce is coming but we must protect against anomaly scenarios if you told me yesterday what's the percentage chance that Tesla's going to be down nine to ten percent today I would say three percent chance yet here we are feel free to ask any questions a lot of pain for the lungs opportunity potentially for those in cash but you have to establish the game plan
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