저자: Ben · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 투자 철학과 IBA(멕시코 최대 가금류 생산업체) 투자 사례를 분석하며, 대부분의 금융 미디어는 소음이라 개인투자자에게 도움이 적다는 주장. 영상 후원사 The Daily Upside를 홍보하며, 정보 가치가 높은 뉴스레터라고 소개. 버리는 인터넷 포럼에서 투자 경력을 시작했고, 2000년대 Value Investors Club 게시물에서 IBA를 분석해 대회에서 5,000달러를 받음. 근거: 순이익 상승 추세, 장부가치의 절반 수준에 거래, 동종 업체 대비 낮은 밸류에이션(국가 할인 반영 후에도). 버리의 핵심 강점은 재무비율 계산이 아니라 남들이 보지 않는 곳에서 독창적 투자 아이디어를 찾는 능력. IBA는 정보 접근성 부족, 스페인어 웹사이트, 유동성 부족(지분 80%가 창업 가문 보유) 등 진입장벽이 있어 기회가 되었음. IBA는 MXX와 S&P500을 상회한 수익을 냄. 버리는 주택시장 거품을 예견해 CDS 성격의 보험을 통해 공매도한 사례도 언급. 개인투자자는 투자 자금에 제약이 없다는 장점이 있지만, 능력 없이 능동적으로 투자하는 것은 나쁜 생각이라고 강조. 진행자 본인은 멕시코 주식 실사에 자신이 없어 바이오 임상시험 공매도를 한다고 밝힘. 장기 견해 위주이며 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 2022년 9월 영상으로, 당시 시점의 분석 맥락임.
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this video is made in partnership with the daily upside visit the link in the description to learn more mike bury is a guy who do the stock market professionally a guy whose parents probably named him after the character in big short movie 2015 i think i unearthed some ancient ancient analysis archived in the vast databases of the early 2000s internet michael bury's award-winning due diligence after reading it i can tell you there's no better way to understand the genius of michael bury and his investment philosophy especially being that he's successfully predicted 20 of the last two recessions for those of you who may not know burry started his investing career posting on internet forums yet another one of the obvious similarities between he and i these days anyone can get access to a plethora of financial health ratios as well as hundreds of different articles analyzing a company what's interesting is that the vast databases of financial information and seemingly endless investment ideas available to the average person aren't contributing to any kind of increase in the success of retail investors i theorize that this is the case for two reasons one retail investors are just generally not good at this i base that on my personal experience and two most financial media is just noise there's no signal no meaningful piece of information hiding within that's actually going to be useful in informing your investment decisions this is made even worse by the fact that finance media producers are incentivized to make you think everything is the most important thing that's ever happened in the stock market everything is a breaking point every day there are major changes happening couple this with the fact that finance media makes its money by keeping you engaged so you can consume the ads we sell which only worsens this issue media businesses are incentivized to pack videos and articles full of as much useless information as possible to keep you engaged longer which is only increasing the amount of noise you have to sift through to find something useful but what does engagement really mean let's read this 300 page dissertation to try to find out what you're left with is useless information packaged in a way that's meant to seem incredibly useful compare that to michael bury's analysis which in a few brief paragraphs describes an investment idea that outperformed the s p as well as other more comparable indexes but there's another place you can find useful business finance and economics information the daily upside very funny ben's getting paid to say this i like reading the daily upside because it's good and because they pay me is that evil personally i feel like 95 of all the content within the finance space is just one idea repackaged recycled and filtered through every branch of the media ecosystem that's why i like the daily upside i truly think it's one of the only places to get new information about what's happening in the global economy information that might spark a business or investment idea worthy of further inquiry the daily upside is a newsletter written by industry professionals so you can always trust the information you're getting i'd highly recommend checking it out you can do so by visiting the link in the description it's 100 free and you can always unsubscribe if you don't enjoy it today i want to get to the core of what makes michael bury michael berry where is the genius hidden within here because i can tell you on a surface level this analysis isn't incredibly complicated it's a few short paragraphs anyone with a high school knowledge of business can read this and make enough sense of it i know because i have a high school knowledge of business the website this is posted on the value investors club is an investing form founded by joel greenblatt unlike other investing forums the average person can't post on it thank god in order to be able to post you have to submit your analysis for review and the community is notorious for having a very small acceptance rate fortunately however if you're not in the community you can still read the analysis it's just not available to you until 45 days after it's been posted there used to be a bi-weekly contest on the site where members could be awarded with five thousand dollars for posting really good due diligence linked in the description are a bunch of other posts from bury some of which also won the bi-weekly contest i just picked this one because i think it's the best representation of how michael bury thinks about investing iba is the largest poultry producer in mexico where chicken is the number one meat it's actually an american depository receipt listed on the new york stock exchange adrs allow investors to buy shares of foreign companies with us dollars on a u.s exchange furry's investment thesis here is actually very simple the company is a leader in the mexico market it's in a very healthy financial position and has a statistical anomaly of evaluation that's basically it i mean if you look at this it's barely a few paragraphs of analysis iba's net income is on an upward trend line's going up that's critical in financial stock market investing it's trading at half of its tangible book value and lower relative valuations than other poultry producers even when factoring in a country discount but while these things paint a picture of a seemingly undervalued company and good financial health with a path to grow i want to get to the root of why this is genius after all michael berry isn't a brilliant investor because of his ability to calculate a few financial health and valuation ratios so why was this post able to win the 5 000 bi-weekly contest i think it can be summarized in one sentence michael berry's genius is in his ability to seek out obscure and creative investment ideas from places where no one else is willing to look that's difficult to do because thinking of good ideas requires a deep knowledge of business and financial markets iba has multiple barriers to entry as stated by burying a reply to one of the comments on this post clearly one reason the stock trades so low is lack of information flow to u.s investors yahoo and other free services do not carry up-to-date information on the stock generally at the time reaching out to investor relations was the only way to get information the website is entirely in spanish which would turn away 99 of english-speaking u.s investors immediately it's a illiquid 80 of the shares are owned by the founding family and information about the company wasn't even publicly available for free in the united states if you look on sec.gov iba's financials only go back to 2003.
all of these things are massive barriers to entry that prevent efficiency and breed opportunity for those creative enough to look where no one else is michael burry shows us that this creativity can be simple it can be as simple as maybe we should look at companies outside of the us or maybe the housing market is in a giant bubble because of over-extended credit due to misaligned incentives within the financial space and maybe we can short it by getting our banking friends to tailor us a specific insurance policy that pays out when these bundles of subprime debt decrease in value when considering its total return iba outperformed the mxx as well as the s p this creativity is a trait that's consistent across all of my favorite investors creatively analyzing companies in the trough of their performance to see if they'll survive or creatively finding ways to fraudulently borrow more money not talking about anyone in particular there one of the big advantages of being a retail trader is the fact that you have no restrictions on where you can put your money which means you can look for value wherever you want this is of course assuming you want to actively invest your own money which is universally a terrible idea in the first place the flip side of this freedom is that while you can put your money anywhere you want without the business competence of someone like michael bury you can't assess these obscure investment opportunities in a meaningful way however that doesn't mean you can't learn by trying i don't trust myself to do good enough due diligence on a mexican stock i'm getting there slowly but until then i'll just stick to shorting biotech clinical trials it's a way less risky and easier thing to do you
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