저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
개인 투자자가 기관에 비해 불리하다는 인식은 미디어가 만든 잘못된 믿음이며, 개인도 충분히 시장에서 좋은 성과를 낼 수 있다는 것이 핵심 결론이다. 기관이 주식 시장을 지배하는 현실은 오히려 개인에게 유리하다는 주장이다. 기관이 주가를 과도하게 밀어올리거나 내리는 경우가 있어, 개인은 이를 관찰하며 독자적 판단을 할 수 있다고 본다. 가장 중요한 원칙은 자신이 보유한 주식을 어떤 이유로 샀는지 2분 안에 10살짜리에게 설명할 수 있어야 한다는 것이다. 많은 사람이 단지 '주가가 오르니까' 보유하고 있다고 지적한다. 이해할 수 없는 복잡한 기술 기업에 투자하지 말고, 자신이 이해하는 단순한 사업 모델의 기업에 투자해야 한다고 강조한다. 예로 든 것은 던킨도너츠로, 경기침체 때도 사람들이 계속 찾는 것을 보고 주식으로 10~15배 수익을 얻었다고 설명한다. 대부분의 개인 투자자는 냉장고나 자동차는 꼼꼼히 조사하면서 주식은 남의 팁만 듣고 전 재산을 넣는다고 비판한다. 손실이 나면 기관이나 프로그램 매매 탓을 하지만, 실제로는 재무제표 등 기본적인 조사를 하지 않은 것이 원인이라고 말한다. 투자에는 방법이 있다는 것이 그의 주장이다. 코카콜라는 32년 전 대비 주당순이익이 약 30배 늘었고 주가도 약 30배 올랐다. 반면 베들레헴 스틸은 30년 전보다 이익이 줄었고 주가도 30년 전의 절반 수준이라고 비교한다. 주식은 복권이 아니며, 모든 주식 뒤에는 기업이 있고 기업이 잘되면 주가도 따라간다는 것이 결론이다. 이 영상에서 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
I frankly think it's a tragedy in America that the small investor has been convinced by the media the print media the the radio television media that they don't have a chance if they don't the big institutions with all their computers and all their degrees and all their money have all the edges and it just isn't true at all and when they're convinced when this happens when this occurs people act accordingly they when they believe it they buy stocks for a week and they buy options and they buy the chili fun this week and next we could see our Janina funded and they get results proportionally to that kind of investing and that's very bothersome I think the public can do extremely well in the stock market on their own I think the fact that institutions dominate the market today is a positive for small investors these institutions to push stocks unusual lows they push them unusual highs for someone they can sit back and have their own opinion and know something about the industry this is a positive it's not a negative so that's what I want to talk about and the single single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own I'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they own actually you really press them down they'd say the reason I own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain upstairs you can't explain to a 10 year old in two minutes or less why you own a stock you should known it and that's true I think about 80% of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning is a relatively simple company and they make a very narrow easy to understand product they make a 1 megabit SRAM CMOS bipolar risk floating point data IO IO array processor with an optimizing compiler a 16 dual port memory a double diffused metal-oxide-semiconductor monolithic logic chip with a plasma matrix vacuum fluorescent display it has a 16-bit dual memory it has a UNIX operating system for whetstone mega flop ollie silicon a minute ur a high bandwidth that's very important 6 gigahertz double metallization communication protocol an asynchronous backward compatibility peripheral bus architecture for wave interleave memory a token ring and change backplane and it doesn't 15 nanoseconds in capability now if you want a piece a crap like that you will never make money never zombie will come along with more wet stones or less wet stones or big a mega flop or a small Omega flop you won't have the foggiest idea what's happened and people buy this junk all the time I made money and Dunkin Donuts I can understand it I when there was recessions I didn't have to worry about what was happening I could go there and people still there I didn't have to worry about low price Korean imports I'm gonna just end out you know I can understand it and you laugh I made 10 or 15 times my money in Dunkin Donuts those are the kind of stocks I can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people are very careful the money the public when they buy a refrigerator they get a Consumer Reports they buy a microwave oven they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range or they go what kind of car to buy they do research on the apartments when they go to when they go on a trip to Wyoming they get a mobile Travel Guide or California when they go to Europe they get the Michelin Travel Guide people will hear a tip on a bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in it before sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions and program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they've gotta lose a job they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's what we were being driven to and it's self fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way there is that's the way they're acting I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up coca-cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy remember coca-cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earning less they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets is a company behind every stock the company does well the stock as well it's not that complicated people get too carried away
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