저자: PeterTuchman · 외국인
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12월 금리인하 확률이 85%로 급등해 시장 상승 요인이라고 봄. 차기 연준의장 발표가 완화 기조를 뒷받침할 것으로 전망. AI 버블론은 과도하다며 NVDA·PLTR 실적 후 하락을 매수 기회로 해석. 연말 다우 5만·S&P 7000 가능성 제시. 소비자신뢰 저점과 실물경제-시장 괴리는 우려 요인으로 언급. 개인투자자 교육(David Green 팁) 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Opening Belt. We're getting you ready for the trading day and a look ahead, Peter Tuckman, senior floor broker here at Trade Moss. Joining me now, he's known as the Einstein of Wall Street and he's here to give us his thoughts of the morning. Some of your quick thoughts for this morning.
Yeah, my quick thoughts for this morning are that we've got so much nice clarity around the fact that we've spiked up as per Mr. Bessant yesterday uh uh talking about uh interest rate cuts for um uh December, right? We had gone down to a probability as little as 15% earlier in the week. And that's what sort of put all that pressure on the market last week and into the beginning of this week.
Now it's clear 85% that we're going to get the cut. The market's telling us that that's really all they're concerned with, right? We saw that when it looked bad and we weren't going to get a cut, we went down a,000. And then when we got clarity on getting one, we went up a thousand. So for whatever reason, whether it's a lot of the big funds or that have very highly sensitive interest rate sensitive positions that they're into, that's where we're going and that's exciting.
You know, we also sorry, we're also um you know, what they also talked about yesterday was the fact that Mr. Trump may in fact announce a Fed new Fed chairman before Christmas. And I think that sort of sets the stage for a lot more cuts and a lot more of a a dovish uh uh approach by the Fed. And I think the market likes that.
Yeah, we saw in Poly Market the likelihood of Kevin Hass being the number one front leader by far. I think it was like 30% to the 6% of Waller and such. Um, so we see that as the most likely candidate. There's still people who think Besson could swoop in at the last minute, but um, with that JP Morgan actually said, um, and in that poly market, by the way, for next year, they don't see as many cuts.
um they're not betting while they see the cut for December, they don't necessarily have a like I think it was about 30% for more cuts in the new year. However, JP Morgan said if we get cuts, we'll be above 8,000 by the end of the year. Actually, I'm I agree. I think that we're on the road to a 50,000 Dow and a 7,000 S&P uh surely by year's end.
I think that there's no way for them to really I'm not I'm not I'm not putting my hanging my hat on poly market as my deciding factor for whether they're going to be cuts next year or not. I think it's really a lot more what who he puts in in in the spot and what basically the economic data tells us.
That's the most important thing. Records by the end of the year $50,000. That's where I'm going. I got I got the hats I got the hats already printed up. I think the runway is clear and that's where we're going. That's pretty exciting. So, what are the catalysts? what drives us? What sectors are number one and two?
So I I as I said I think it's clear that the the largest catalyst besides the fact that Palanteer and Nvidia had absolutely spectacular earnings like beyond everything else and that we obviously are seeing you know so much money being put into AI which is still you know clear look we had that insanity that when Palanteer came out with earnings and they stock sold off even though the earnings were spectacular the stock sold off 8% mainstream media decided to start talking about AI's a bubble and that this is all smok and mirrors which was ridiculous.
And then uh I mean that that was just almost disrespectful to the new retail traders and to the whole investment community. So that was what and and then we saw the interest rate story which also made no sense at all. You know Dan Ies actually jokingly went on TV the other day and said even when it looked like we weren't going to get a cut that the probability of not getting a cut was the same as me playing center for the New York Knicks in the 2526 series season.
So all that being said, I think that is going to be the biggest uh factor. You know, I think just setting the stage for for that coming into the year end. I think we're going to have good retail numbers. Look, there is some uh inflation uh fears. We still are trading a little bit and driving a little bit blindly relative to the economic data which we're not getting.
There's been a little bit of gaslighting as far as that goes or or gatekeeping is better term. Uh so we don't know a lot of that stuff but you know we do know that the bad news is good news for the market and that cutting rates is surely going to put the fuel on the fire necessary to take us higher.
AI bubble ridiculous is what you said beyond ridiculous. So I mean one of the CEOs came out and said it's not for three years at least. I think it was the Alibaba CEO who said that. Um, you know, well, yeah, but the CEO of Soft Bank said that Nvidia at at at at trading at $200 post a 10 for one split after its last June earnings is still undervalued.
Do you have to realize that Oracle, Meta, Google, and and uh uh every one of these the the the Mag 7 stocks companies are putting hundreds of billion dollars into data centers 5 years out. we know that this is a you know that that Nvidia obviously has trillions of dollars still to be put in uh into this marketplace.
So the fact that they it's not a 1995 98 2000 moment at all. I mean that just seems crazy. And to think that you know that after all the the fact that that story was spurred by the fact that Palunteer came out with great earnings and sold off 8%. Everyone needs to understand old adage on Wall Street, you've been here for a long time, buy the rumor, sell the news.
The seven days leading into the release of the earnings on November 7th, the stock went up up up until it hit a record high. When that happens, of course, with great earnings, you're going to sell off. Nvidia sold off for 3 weeks into the earnings and they had sell earnings and they went up. That's that's that's not to infer that that tells a story of some kind of a bubble.
It's crazy. And earning season was pretty good overall. I mean, when you think about the quarterly numbers for most of these companies, not just tech, but also some of the other, you know, groups were pretty good. Is there an outlandish thought that you want to just squash right now or an outlandish thought that sort of sits in your mind and you say, "Oh, I wonder." Or it keeps you up at night.
Well, I would that story alone, I mean, that had me deeply upset. You know, you have to realize too that we're in we're we are consumer confidence. Okay. Uh the number hit yesterday hit uh a low that we have not seen on since April of this year. Well, since February of this year when we were in the middle of that economic armageddon caused by the tariffs, correct?
And I find that a little bit curious. We need to understand too that there's the market and there's the economy, right? And they are not trading in concert at the moment. We know that there are people out there struggling. We know that there's a lot going on and we know that look, government workers were were not getting paid or they were struggling for a while, too.
There are inflationary fears. There are layoffs. Challenger announcing a million layoffs that we didn't even know about. So, you know, that that is a fact. I I we're gonna know a lot more over the next couple of days. Obviously, everyone needs to know that the that retail virtually gets 75% of their profits in the next 4 days, right?
I mean, that's what Black Monday, Black Friday, whatever it's called. And it's still looking pretty good. I mean for the holidays for travel um I actually saw for this week they're expecting over 19 million travelers in this Thanksgiving records you know 3 million on Sunday should go through TSA the the retail numbers are looking good between 3 and 4% growth year-over-year for the holidays and using AI um I saw a lot of that using AI to help you shop um how do you feel about the holiday segment you know Black Friday to the end of the You know what?
Look, my my my gut is that it's going to be good. You know, I mean, it's just what it feels like. There's sort of a positive sentiment around I sort of have my ear to the grindstoneone a little bit around retail traders who, you know, who are out there and there's it's been one of the most robust years.
It's been a profitable year for a lot of people, you know, at at Wall Street Global Trading Academy. We've got tens of thousands of new students coming. Santa Claus is here. um of tens of thousands of new students coming into the market. Everybody is focused on this market not just tech but trying to make some new disposable income and so there's enthusiasm around I feel
you spend a lot of time doing education. Yes. What are some of the tips if you have three tips or what are some of your trading tips that you go to? I would be happy. Now these are the tips of my partner David Green who was a former market maker here on the floor back in ' 85 when when I got here. He retired uh uh 10 years later after a big buyout here on the floor.
The best tips are this. As a day trader, when you get into the first thing in the morning is have a plan on how much money you want to make in your day. When you hit your goal, turn the machine off and stop trading. You do not want to overtrade. Number two is have a stop order on every trade that you have.
Okay? You need to identify your downside risk. I'm willing to risk 50 to make 200, but I'm not willing to risk 200 to make 50. Never turn a winning trade into a losing trade. Which means start taking profits when you can. Right? The minute the stock goes up in your favor, start taking profits and do what's called a trailing stop so that you can take advantage of the stock going up.
Okay? Know when to stop trading when you're making money. Know when to stop trading when you're losing money. If you have three max loss trades, okay, turn the machine off and go home. You're having a bad day, you'll come back from a bad day. What you won't come back from is revenge trading, right? and uh and and and and just be disciplined and consistent.
People need to understand that you you have to start taking profits immediately in trading this market. We're only one tweet away from crazy town, right? We know that, right? You can be in a trade for all the right reasons, right? And then a tweet comes out and the market goes down, you know, 70 handles.
And so, it's just discipline, consistency, and then following those rules. David Green, one of the great teachers in the space. And, you know, and we've had a lot of success with it. And people High five for those. Those were some great tips. Those were great tips. We'll have to cut that up and get that out for folks.
Check it out. Wall Street Global Trading Academy. David Green. He's the man. All right. Einstein of Wall Street, Peter Chuckman. Thank you so much. Happy holiday and happy trading. Thank you. Peter Chuckman, senior floor broker at Trade Moss.
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