저자: JimRogers·AnthonyScaramucci · 외국인
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결론: 두 사람은 비트코인을 통화로는 회의적으로 보지만, 투자 자산으로서는 Scaramucci가 긍정적으로 보며 소액 편입을 권함. 금·은 및 정부 정책: Rogers는 은과 금을 보유 중이며 추가 매수 의향이 있다고 말함. 정부가 대규모 지출을 하는 분야에서 투자 기회가 생긴다는 견해. 비트코인 통화 가능성: Rogers는 디지털 결제는 확산되지만 정부가 독점권을 쥐려 해 비트코인이 법정 통화가 되기는 어렵다고 주장. 거래 수단으로는 유효하다고 봄. Scaramucci의 비트코인 견해: 가치 저장 수단으로 본다고 밝힘. 고객 포트폴리오에 1~3% 비중으로 편입, 일부 고객은 비중을 줄였다고 언급. 메트칼프 법칙에 따른 채택 확대(2025년까지 10억 명 가능성)를 근거로 제시. 비트코인 가격 전망: 채택이 진행되면 코인당 수십만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 언급(장기 견해, 구체적 목표 기간 없음). 2021년 3월 기준 과거 매수가(1만5~1만6천 달러)를 언급했으나 현재가 방향에 대한 단기 예측은 없음. 블록체인 투자: Rogers는 블록체인 관련 순수 투자처를 찾기 어렵다고 함. Scaramucci는 비트코인이 블록체인 투자의 최선이라고 주장. 아마존 사례: 1997년 IPO 시점 투자 1만 달러가 2,100만 달러가 됐다는 예시로 장기 성장 주식의 변동성 감내를 강조. 리스크: 비트코인은 과거 여러 차례 50% 이상 하락을 겪었으며, 정부 규제 및 중앙은행 대응이 주요 불확실성으로 언급됨. 전통 자산 언급: 삼성전자 등은 블록체인 사업을 하지만 순수 투자처로는 부적절하다는 취지의 발언.
다듬은 글
anyway we'll let jacob ask questions i'm sorry jacob i just yeah and i can connect you guys over email after but um uh so on the note of governments i wanted to talk about bitcoin and precious metals because both uh both of you have kind of speculated that the us dollar is not the best asset to hold for the near future or have said something along the lines of that i know that um jim the last time i watched you speak about it someone mentioned that you think that eventually it'll get big enough and then the government will outlaw it um do you think that's still true and anthony could you uh give a pitch for bitcoin well let's if you don't mind let's hear jim's views on it and then i can respond i mean so jim you think he's going to be outlawed well first uh what what he said he said before was yes if you watch what the government does you will probably become a successful investor because if they start spending a lot of money on something even if they're wrong somebody's going to make a lot of money because the government throws staggering amounts of money into what they think should be done uh now as far as when you say they're going to work i mean i own silver i got some silver right here i got some gold right here and i'm not buying at the moment but i will buy more i have never owned any cryptocurrencies many of them have already disappeared as you know and gone to zero now i wish i i wish i bought the right one or the right five uh but there have been hundreds hundreds which have already disappeared um my listen it's a great trading vehicle for those who are for good traders which i am not i'm the worst trader in the world but my view about what many of the bulls say is it's going to replace money well money is definitely going to be on the computer it already is in china you can't take a taxi in china with money you cannot buy ice cream in china with money you only can use computer money already so it's happening it's going even i mean everybody the u.s government is investigating how to put all the money on the computer and it's going to be there but when the money is on the computer i cannot imagine the us government is going to say okay guys this is money but if you want to use bitcoin go ahead go ahead and compete with us i mean come on that's not the way these guys think they're very power hungry they want to control everything and they want a monopoly they do not want to let other people compete with money that doesn't mean it cannot be a trading vehicle till the end of time but it's not going to be money in my view you know jim i mean i got to respond to that i think jim could be right about that i i my thesis on bitcoin has always been related to value storage once it is completely adapted and so as right now it is a qua a reasonably good quality liquid volatile trading facility but if i am right about medcast law and again i might not be so i've got my clients appropriately sized they own anywhere from one to three percent exposure to bitcoin depending on who they are and what the risk tolerance is so this is not i'm not a bitcoin evangelist jim i am a bitcoin investor i think there's a very big distinction there uh i see the positives in bitcoin and i see the volatility and i see the uncertainty but i just want to make one point about what i have gotten wrong in my career uh because i am a disciple of people like jim rogers and warren buffett i have bought value i have uh you know bought some emerging markets like into china and places like singapore and i've held the assets and i'm making that very patient compounding game however what i've missed in my career is the adoption cycles associated with medcast law so let me give one vivid quick example metcalf's law uh scaling a retail network known as amazon if you bought amazon in 1997 may 15th on its ipo you put ten thousand dollars into amazon it is now worth 21 million dollars now jim will appreciate this i used to attend the allen and company conference the media conference in sun valley and i watched jeff bezos make one presentation after the next about how he was scaling this business and he was going to be not focused on earnings warren buffett said shortly after him sat up there he said well that doesn't work for me i need hardcore earnings i need cash earnings i need retained earnings otherwise i can't value the thing appropriately um and i think we're in a different world now i could be wrong uh when people say this time is different it usually is not different but we have to accept the fact that we've had technological changes in the world that have caused massive scaling of networks this phone this apple phone is network we have ibooks on it we have itunes on it and i everything on it amazon has got 46 of the market share of the retail space facebook is a social network um what they created with bitcoin like it or not is a decentralized monetary end or transfer network and what's unique about it and jim is correct they do believe that some of these governments will outlaw it but what is unique about it is that 106 million people have already adopted it we believe a billion people will adopt it by 2025.
if i'm right about that and medcap is right about the valuation metrics associated with fundamentally announcing something that's scaling pursuant to medcap's law i think it's a cheap asset and so therefore it has features jim if you study it and i can recommend a book to you if you have an interest it has features of fungibility it has features of impregnability because of the blockchain and if you go back through history and study money these are the things that human beings over the course of 5 000 years of recorded history have used to transfer value between each other one last point the thing that we transfer between each other is always worth less than the goods and services that we're transferring whether it's wampum a seashell a pearl uh a piece of paper with benjamin franklin's uh insignia or portrait on it it's always worth less than what we trade but it's the trust in that network and so to me uh you got 106 million people that believe in the blockchain and the blockchain has not been cracked for bitcoin in 12 years a result of which we put some money in it jim i think you'd appreciate this as a long-term investor we started buying those coins at 15 16 000 and uh you know i i i think they have a long way to go how far do you see it going so if if we're right pursuant to medcavs law we have 100 million people in it now it can get to a billion i think these coins could be worth several hundred thousand dollars a piece and and by the way they could still never be money they could still cohabitate in your sim card with a digital yuan a digital dollar and in a weird way if i'm right about where the fed is moving and i listen i did albeit it was unsuccessful for me i did work in the government for a period of time i'm very close to steve mnuchin and i understand where the treasury wants to be as it relates to a digital dollar and weirdly bitcoin could be a potential early adoption mechanism for them and i think when you see companies like netflix and apple computers start to put bitcoin on its balance sheet you'll recognize that the government may treat bitcoin like they do an asset like gold at some point and remember here's the last point okay jim and i there's a there's an expression called fud fear uncertainty and doubt we're gonna be very very careful that jim and i don't become fuddy duddies okay we don't want to be old dinosaurs where we fail to recognize that there's new technologies out there that we have to embrace i'm i'm closing in on 60 and i've made a reasonable amount of money with a related to jim rogers warren buffett and george soros you know he used to be able to celebrate and talk about george soros gym but now he's become a political pariah so we have to be careful using his name in certain venues but but those are the people that are my intellectual mentors in investing uh having said that uh uh right now probably the best capital allocator ever in the world is a gentleman by the name of jeff bezos you can like him or dislike him but you have to look at what he did with his business the long-term philosophy the way he allocated that capital you have this huge opportunity right now to be in bitcoin which is scaling the way google facebook and microsoft did and the way amazon did pursuant to medcast law and it's doing it in a decentralized way so there's no c-suite politics there's no intrigue at the personal level of who's divorcing or having affairs with each other it's decentralizing and there's a hundred plus thousand nodes of which skybridge is operating a full node and i would recommend to jim to meet my friend cz at binance which is the largest uh currency um cryptocurrency trading facility it's located in singapore um or bitfinance those two guys are close personal friends of mine they're both based in singapore uh and it would be worth it i think to have lunch with them just to stay nearly plastic keep the mind open about the potentiality that this could exist not as a currency but as it scales as something that's a fairly stable and again i'm going to say fairly stable store value remember amazon to go from the 10 000 to the 21 million you had to subject yourself to seven episodic events where the stock dropped more than 50 percent on in that in that travail and and i think that's happening with bitcoin right now and by the way if i'm wrong i have it sized appropriately in my portfolio so that it's one to three percent of my assets depending on people's risk profile so no one's going to miss a meal if i've got this thing completely wrong and somebody like peter schiff and nouriel robini are correct well i would have to say i don't see how it's one to three percent it's gone up so much it must be three to five percent yeah right now that don't know that's correct i'm talking about a cost i'm talking about cost when i when i initiated these in in the portfolio and some of my clients i've trimmed it pursuant to their request and some of my clients are comfortable with letting it run and i think i remember reading in one of your books that if you're on to something and you feel very strongly about it you have high conviction and you have a good good fundamentals and it is running you don't cut it just for the sake of cutting it you you want to reevaluate it as the price is moving exactly right but now what one of the most interesting things you said is about bitcoin sorry blockchain i blockchain is going to change it is going to change it is changing now everything we know about the world it's going to put a lot of people out of business but electricity put a lot of people out of business so blockchain is fabulous exciting how do i play blockchain that technology i would love to find a way and i have not found a way part partly because i'm lazy and partly because you know i mean yes samsung is in blockchain but so what i mean i need to find a company where it's small enough that will make a difference so so i'm going to push back on jim politely and i'm going to try to appeal to his intellectual bandwidth because he's got one of the largest intellectual bandwidths in investing you play the blockchain by owning the bitcoin we don't have to over complicate it and what sometimes we do because we see something that's run up a lot we say okay wait i better be careful with that and one of the things we don't want to do is embarrass ourselves because if something looks like it's too good to be true in our industry we say okay then it must not be true however let me give you a couple of things that are too good to be true landing people on the moon too good to be true this phone more computing power in it than all the computers that we use to land people on the moon this phone is a miniaturization device a pac-man every one of these books in this room have been eaten by this phone and can be stored in this phone that is too good to be true amazon is too good to be true a store that you can buy everything and it delivers it right to your house in a few hours so we do have things in our societies that are typically true i find that too good to be true atheism to work is in the investment community when we're dealing with investment professionals that are lying about their performance but let's take a look at some of these great companies their performance amazon going from 10 000 to 21 million yes that's too good to be true but it is true and so therefore we have to look at these things intellectually and we have to potentially embrace them and again i'm i'm just telling people you're going to be short bitcoin by not being long it and let me just explain that uh eventually it'll be part of the index eventually right now jim and i are looking at an index it's got stocks and bonds in it it's got gold commodities gyms come out of the index it's got all of these features and at some point a small slice of that pizza is going towards bitcoin i would like to get my clients in there now before that etf is registered and approved in the united states we have one approved already too actually in canada and i think these regulators have made a decision we might as well regulate this sob this beast as opposed to fight it now will it be a currency jim is likely correct about that that they will because of their monopoly powers their central banking coordination it'll probably avoid being a currency but can it sit on your phone alongside of your currencies and can you toggle in and out of it uh i believe that will happen and if i'm wrong you know trust me jim i've got a whole phone book of uh wrongs and mistakes i've had in my career so i i'll i'll add this one to the top of the list but i don't think so and i think i think that sizing it appropriately and being cautious uh will will serve you well in in a vehicle like this well jacob i have certainly made many mistakes in my life i assure you we do weeks of shows about about my mistakes but back to the my other quest is there a blockchain company not that i'm aware of not not that i'm aware but the the blockchain is basically to me i think the best way to play the blockchain is through is through bitcoin and i and i and i understand jim's point of vol eventually everything will be digitized you could theoretically have a digitized shares of walmart on your phone a digitized shares of a swiss franc a digitized shares of amazon on your phone and and and all of those things will be digitized through the blockchain but i don't know any company that i'm aware of that you can play the quote-unquote blockchain uh another reason why i like bitcoin okay well i'm looking for a blockchain if you ever come across jacob if you ever know a blockchain you buy all you can but didn't send me an email okay yeah i'll definitely let you guys know i know um anthony you have to head out now so i'll uh just say uh goodbye guys and hopefully you come back on the show sometime soon yeah that was gonna be a great pleasure
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