저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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좋은 투자 판단은 경영진의 과거 실적(15~20년)과 정직·성장 의지에 기반하며, 소수 종목 집중(신규 투자자는 20종목 이하)을 권장. 사기 기업은 과장된 약속과 과소공시, 지속 음의 현금흐름으로 식별 가능. 성장주와 가치주 중 어느 쪽이 유리할지는 단정하지 않으며, 본인은 현재 일부 가치주를 보유하지만 성장주 선호를 밝힘. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
So what's your favorite metric? So my favorite metric is management portfolio should not for a newcomer should not be more than 20 shares. Sir the the top five says how much percentage would it form of the total portfolio. Like I had invested in telecom companies looking at the way usage of telecom is growing.
A company came to me which is having just eight restaurants and all those restaurants are on lease only and just eight restaurants and having a turnover of 18 cr or something and asking a price of 100 cr. It depends where you don't sleep your uh where you don't lose your sleep at night. That is the quantity you should invest into into any companies.
Vijay sir, how can uh investors spot companies where the promoter is doing manipulation siphoning out out money? Basically, how to how can people spot fraud companies? So that this is what you can look back and see that what happened in the past in the companies which were ultimately CV pointed out that they are they were doing fraud which has been proven already.
So you learn from them and and the formula is very simple. I think to your newspaper only I had given 10 formulas that how to spot a fraud companies. Now simple things are very simple. Any promoter or any company is overpromising and underdisclosing always try to be in the you know limelight. They want to make even small news like a breaking news and all and negative cash flow.
Every time they are just keeping a trap they just want to raise capital from the market. So there are these are few signs where one should be careful about all these company they may turn out turn out into a fraud companies and sir how can people know if the management is doing good things. So basically how to spot good management.
So we have talked about spotting fraud. Now how do we spot good companies having a good corporate governing. So you see uh very simple thing is a good management uh don't talk big no they build big so every time every now and then they won't appear on social media and uh on TV uh channels and all and you know talking about their companies and all so they are more interested in building their companies not building the market cap and there are few things which I had written earlier also that quality of a good management is that it has to be honest hungry and smart and they should be smart enough to sail through bad times and hungry to grow in good times and honest all the time.
So this is what if you track a company their previous track record for last 15 20 years that whatever they have promised they have really achieved or not. So the few things few simple things you can uh you know through all these observing all these few things you can make out a company is a pro or promoter is good or capable or not and sir when you choose company do you look bottoms up or do you go top down?
No bottoms up only. I look at the company only. Any specific reason for that? No, because there in many sectors good companies there are hardly three or four companies only in any sector you know I keep a track of the sector. If sector is rising that I then I would like to identify the smaller company in that sector which can turn around faster which can run faster.
So that is why and if I like the company so even if uh sector is not doing well sometime company may also take market shares from the others. So I uh first look at the company and then you can say that I look at the sector or both at the same time but my approach is bottoms up and so any metric that you look at.
So some people look at ro some people look at ROC some people look at P. So what's your favorite metric? So my favorite metric is is management their previous track record as I said and uh their what what they have done in last 15 20 years their track record and of course the growth uh growth in the uh in the business.
So that is my uh main criteria and so lot of people you know differentiate between growth companies and value comp companies growth stocks and value stock. So in the next 5 years what do you think will work either growth or value? No, I think depends on the value. Then the matrix of value is also different.
As I said earlier that I have invested recently I've invested in some companies which are actually uh good in value. So and growth is also there but moderate growths are there. So in current juncture I have some investment into uh value uh based companies but maybe I I personally like uh growth companies.
So maybe I will switch over to growth. And so for a new investor where is like a good hunting ground for stocks and where should people go and you know hunt for stock ideas? So you know everything you cannot learn from watching uh TV channels and reading newspaper and all. So all good things are happening around uh in your uh within your site only.
As I said earlier also like uh when you visit in the plane air hostess tells us there's six exit uh exits in the plane two in the rear four in the middle and maybe two in the front like eight exits and all and then uh the nearest exit could be near you where you are sitting you know. So this is what opportunity is all about.
If you look around your life what is happening around your life you can find good stories. So any examples so any interesting stock you find but you know which didn't come from a newspaper or which you know came from a very unconventional. So like I had invested in uh in a airline company as I told you I realized after in 20 23 or 22 23 that suddenly airport has become so crowded and all these airlines have become like air bus you know bus and all.
So I invested in one airline company which is doing reasonably well. So this is how you you focus. This is how you observe things and this is what life teaches you. If you look around keep your own senses open like I had invested in telecom companies looking at the way usage of telecom is growing. So this is how uh you realize if you notice and so once you choose a company how do you decide how much money to put into that stock because you are a very concentrated investor but how should people decide how much to allocate when they find a good idea.
So the answer lies with you only that uh you should not have whatever quantity there is no big quantity in a small quantity there is no m as m met matrix like that it depends where you don't sleep your uh where you don't lose your sleep at night that is the quantity you should invest into it into any companies you know because even even the best of the best companies are going to have bad quarters or maybe bad years or bad time so in at that point of time you should not lose lose your sleep.
So that is the uh you know that you have to ask yourself that how much uh uh quantity you can have or how much money you can invest in that company and usually I prefer that your portfolio should not for a newcomer should not be should not be more than 20 shares so that you can keep a track on all the sectors and so that your mind is agile it it is working uh you know otherwise I think uh hardly you will get one or two shares out of your portfolio 15 and 20 which can multiply your wealth all 15 20 are not going to give you the same kind of return.
Sir the the top five says how much percentage would it form of the total port I I don't know but should be around 50%. I don't know. And so lastly, lot of companies especially the mid and smalls size company they want to list their company in the marketme or be the main mainboard IPO. Any message you want to give to the promoters who are looking to list their business?
So my message to new pro promoters who are coming to this uh company atme or whichever platform they are welcome but only thing they should not come here only to list they should come here to create some value and they should come to create some uh you know some business uh you know so that should be the idea because nowadays uh I had met uh one management or two three management in last five six days out of Mumbai.
So they were uh they were pitching me their their companies and they're talking about market cap and they're talking about that this is what my peers company has the valuation a company came to me which is having just eight restaurants and all those restaurants are on on uh lease only and just eight restaurants and having a turnover of 18 cr or something and asking a price of 100 cr so all these things are uh little tricky I don't know but ultimately promoter should come with the mindset of creating something something something big not just to create something some empire they should have that in mind not just the stock price.
Thank you so much. I think everyone would find this very helpful and thank you so much for your time sir. Thank you. Thank you.
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