저자: ChamathPalihapitiya/StacyRasgon · 외국인
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엔비디아는 향후 5년 내 시총 50~60조 달러에 도달할 수 있다는 주장. MS·메타의 AI 투자 확대 발언으로 엔비디아가 12% 급등했으나 시간외 매도로 상승분 반납. 인터뷰에서 Rasgon은 AI 지출(캐펙스) 가이던스 상향이 업황을 떠받친다고 보며, 밸류에이션은 1년 전보다 싸졌다고 평가하고 장기 리스크도 언급. 영상 후반 단기 변동성을 활용한 트레이딩 기회도 언급.
다듬은 글
Nvidia stock should easily attain a market valuation of between $50 trillion and $60 trillion over the next five years in my opinion Microsoft and meta both stated that there is a greater need for AI and that they will continue to expand their capacity which caus Nvidia to Surge 12% I know you've discussed this a lot before sheth so perhaps you could share your thoughts on the remarks made this week although you have previously stated that much of this buildout is still in the planning stages and that there isn't a tangible return on investment it is evident that some of the purchasers of this Capital Equipment are saying Hey There is rli we're going to continue to build aggressively therefore perhaps you could briefly discuss whether anything has changed or if we are merely witnessing people rationalize their choices unfortunately it's just another instance of sell the news after hours these things rallied Phantom and if you look at them they have all simply returned returned all of their gains I believe that people are aware that Nvidia was the original developer of Tesla's Innovative technology until the business eventually created its own internal systems these gpus powered Tesla vehicles these original Nvidia cards are now highly sought-after Collectibles that sell for Hefty prices on the illicit market for instance some rare editions have sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars and one specific model is presently going for $119,000 you may get yours right now by clicking the link below but don't delay stock is very limited we are at the very end of the AI hype cycle people seize the chance to Simply sell in large quantities once these things Spike I mean today Nvidia shares total 38 million it's crazy indeed it is trading like a penny stock and it is literally the first moment of the day like a lead balloon it's falling straight down indeed meta made a comeback but they have essentially forfeited all of their advantages today it's kind of gone downhill however that is not the issue these businesses are not going to go to zero the idea is that people are optimizing at the moment since nobody can predict when all of this Phantom money will materialize I believe it is reasonable that they are selling whenever they can in order to sort of book the profits therefore this has nothing to do with what we would refer to as the economy the recessionary debate or the recent rate discussion look I mean I'm currently dealing with 8090 in this situation being able to launch a business at the onset of what I believe to be the most significant wave in my professional life since social networking has been one of the highlights of my career I kind of tried to ride the best wave I could there after jumping into the center of that one my honest conclusion after 7 months of rigorous work in this field and I want to continue for as long as it takes to establish a profitable business is that artificial intelligence is incredibly deflationary the outcomes are very significant in terms of the amount of efficiency that can be captured and the costs that can be avoided and it doesn't cost a lot of money and because it enables us to price differently than incumbent Solutions the appropriate business people that is entrepreneurs who are starting from scratch like my co-founders and I at 8090 will'll pass it on to our clients therefore i' don't Envision a way where a large portion of the money that has been spent suddenly appears I failed to see it I do see a way for businesses to find great consider it this way what is the most profitable operational company that existed in the80s is what you would ask if you were looking at the 1980s although I'm not familiar with that business I have a suspicion that their ebitda margins were in the neighborhood of 30 to 40% and they were very likely amazing 40 years from today the most efficient Corporation will most likely have ebit a margins of between 50 and 60% in actuality the top AI enabled business will most likely have 70 to 80% margins within the next 15 to 20 years that's an amazing thing now that's a bold forecast but it will reinforce the fundamental principle of capitalism that everyone tends to overlook you compete away excess return therefore there will be hundreds and thousands of businesses with operating margins of 60% or more but they will be in much small smaller markets therefore I believe that although the market as a whole expands the number of businesses increases by an even greater order of magnitude in all of that the truth is that these huge people will find it quite difficult to sort of see this value capture that justifies any of this expenditure in light of the capital expenditures that have occurred here I believe that you will need to do some kind of however even with the recent upswing Nvidia stock is still about 133 % behind its peak now we'd like to introduce Stacy raisin to discuss the future of Nvidia and some of its Rivals he is a senior analyst and managing director at Bernstein it's wonderful to speak with you once more Stacy it appears that a large portion of that enthusiasm has now returned I would like to know if you believe that the sentiment has changed as a result of amd's results yesterday therefore I don't believe amd's results with a real issue I believe it has to do with the capital expenditure guidelines that many hyperscalers like Google Microsoft and meta are releasing those capital expenditure outlooks all appear to be pretty encouraging those figures are beginning to rise and I believe that's what's been fueling the AI trade actually I don't believe AMD was the cause amd's outcomes weren't always negative they somewhat followed their own AI guidelines but I don't believe they did so any more than many had anticipated it wasn't higher than people believe Le in my opinion what does it tell us about the possible opportunity and upside for these chipmakers Stacy considering the capital expenditure guide that we are receiving from some of these hyperscalers you see when you look ahead to where expectations are some of the numbers are really high for organizations like this the hyperscalers who are large clients are responsible for a large portion of that expenditure therefore you do want to see an increase in those numbers if you go back say a quarter or two ago this was a problem at the time there was a significant discrepancy between several of these AI names and the expenditure Outlook and we have since seen the capex guides increase significantly even meta I believe reported yesterday night and in addition to raising their capital expenditure guide for the year they stated that they will likely see significant increases the next year that in my opinion is what matters most people's main concern is simply whether an air pocket will form soon spending has increased significantly and the numbers have grown rapidly people are concerned about sustainability and from what we've heard from some of our consumers it appears that the expenditure is sustainable at least for the time being that I believe has been the main factor therefore Stacy when we consider expanding into some of these valuations what will these businesses need to demonstrate in order to reach the high figures we've been talking about I mean so exercise caution for example high valuations and high numbers are not the same thing these businesses aren't all that costly are they as much as the price has increased the profit forecasts have increased even more so if you look at a business like Nvidia it's actually much cheaper now than it was before the Run began say a year or a year and a half ago the question then arises are the profits indeed attainable they must without a doubt the numbers must increase in my opinion the buy side figures will be much higher than the sells side numbers considering the Investor's position therefore is beneficial to monitor any growth in client spending as well as any clarification on business strategies and what the companies are really doing with this money additionally I believe that the feedback we are receiving from the supply chain and customers is positive at least for the foreseeable future because of the inherent volatility of the computer sector even Market leaders like Nvidia May encounter serious difficulties economic uncertainty and Market swings might affect stock performance long-term investors may be exposed to significant risks due to the high value of Nvidia stock if the firm does not live up to the high standards set by the market investors must carefully assess potential risks because nvidia's long-term performance may also be impacted by changes in technological Trends pressure from competitors or unanticipated industry disruptions pros of short-term investing the stock price of Nvidia has fluctuated a lot which has given short-term Traders the chance to profit from Price swings stock prices can rise quickly in response to Good News such as impressive earnings reports business alliances or technological advancements on the other hand unfavorable events or Market corrections may cause prices to decline providing short-term Traders with chances for Rapid profits or adjustments for those skilled at observing market trends and timing transactions the price volatility of Vidia may present profitable possibilities consider this AI is the way of the future every industry will be affected including manufacturing Health Care Banking and transportation at the core of this AI Revolution or nvidia's chips which operate as the brains behind the whole thing let's speak about
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