A.I. has real earnings and bubble forecasts still too early, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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Siegel 교수는 연준이 6월에 금리를 동결(pause)할 가능성이 높다고 보며, 이는 시장 랠리의 주요 원인이라고 평가한다. 연준은 데이터 의존적이며, 인플레이션이 재점화되거나 고용시장이 더 타이트해지면 다시 긴축할 수 있다고 본다. 다만 파월 의장이 이미 방향을 정한 것으로 보인다고 판단한다. 고용 측면에서는 금리가 여전히 높아 고용을 지탱하기 어렵다고 우려한다. 시점은 이번 달이나 다음 날은 아니지만 언젠가 비농업 고용 증가가 마이너스로 전환될 수 있다고 본다. 올해 증시는 여전히 상승할 것으로 예상하지만 강한 급등(surge)은 기대하지 않는다. AI 테마는 크립토·닷컴 때처럼 섹터가 불붙어 여름까지 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 엔비디아는 실제 기업이며 닷컴 기업과 다르다고 평가한다. 버블 여부에 대해서는 AI 주식이 아직 버블이 아니라고 판단한다. 버블은 펀더멘털 대비 4~5배 수준일 때를 의미하며 현재는 그 근처도 아니라고 본다. 실적이 뒷받침되고 있다는 근거를 든다. 과거 닷컴, SPAC, 일부 크립토 영역은 버블이었지만 AI는 아직 그 단계가 아니라는 입장이다.

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01. you trust and depend on this rally as we begin a new month let's ask the aforementioned Professor Siegel he is with us today as always from Philadelphia Professor welcome back happy to be here Scott new month are we going to have the same story do you believe in this market right now well I think the market loves the uh actually I even I was surprised this talk about a pause or a skip you can name it the way you want to uh I think that's a major source of the rally today as you know I've been warning about the FED going too far the delayed effects of monetary policy accumulating for a downturn in the second half if they can pause now um this lowers the probability that we're going to have a recession you think they're done is it just a when you say pause presumably you're suggesting okay they don't go in June but that doesn't mean that they're fully done and I think fed members who've been speaking have been kind of going out of their way to make sure the markets are quite understanding of that absolutely I mean they're they're totally data dependent I mean if if in Flynn if inflation flares up again or the labor market gets even tighter than it is I mean I I thought it was pretty surprising that you know Harker Jefferson talked about it before tomorrow's employment report I thought at least though they would want to see what tomorrow's employment report would be before saying well it looked like we we can pause I think that that was sort of encouraging I think that that means that power sort of made up his mind with the staff with the staff hey this is a time for a pause there may be just some dissance uh you know bored and you know there are hawks investor uh we may get our first descent in a year and a half at the next meeting but nonetheless what the chairman wants the chairman gets yeah well that's for sure we think um Swoon or surge this summer what's Your Gut telling you professor you know I I I still worry about you know I still think rates are too high to sustain good employment um uh and I think we're going to see a downturn not this month not tomorrow but sometime we're going to see a downturn in payroll growth to a negative number and I could give everyone a little bit of a scare um the year is still going to be up but um you know I I don't think a surge is in the works uh of course AI can go much higher you know we've seen this you know what what was the last year you added two years ago you added crypto to your your name and you you soared you know 20 years ago you had a.com do your name and you saw it now you add AI to your name and uh you know that's that's the way to get the buyers in there I mean you know markets go through all those phases I'm not going to say whether you know Nvidia is a real company it's not a it's not one these.com companies but something those sectors can catch fire and that fire can continue through the summer but what so you say you know you you mentioned the.com bubble um check right we that was a bubble crypto check that was a bubble we know that now you know from where you were in in Bitcoin for example to where it is today are you suggesting that these AI stocks are a bubble no they're not there yet and they got real word I mean they got they got real earnings behind them um I'm not saying they're not eventually going to go too high but I think you know I think we threw out a bubble way too easily I mean uh you know and to me a bubble is is a stock that's four or five times above its fundamental values and you know I don't think we're anywhere near that then I think we were in the.com Era I think we were in the SPAC era I think we were in the in some of the crypto areas but not there yet on AI