저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Ives는 AI 인프라 투자 사이클(capex 슈퍼사이클)이 아직 초중반이며 향후 2년간 기술 강세장이 이어진다고 주장한다. 엔비디아 칩 수요/공급 비율 10:1, 수요 6월 대비 30% 증가를 근거로 제시한다. 메타·오라클 등 하락은 매수 기회로 보며 연말 기술주 랠리를 전망한다. 테슬라는 자율주행·로보틱스 기대로 목표가 600(기본)/800(강세)을 제시한다. 다만 수익성 없는 소형 원전·양자 기업은 선별 필요를 인정한다.
다듬은 글
Wedbush Securities, head of technology research, Dan Ives joins us now. Dan, I don't think it's surprising for people to hear you pound the table on on the tech trade. You've been super bullish. Do you not have concerns now about monetary policy, you know, as as the market rethinks the cut for December and and the overall frothing that's evaluations around AI?
Yeah, look, Sarah, I mean, I get some of the nervousness, but I mean, I was just in Asia for 3 weeks. And demand and supply for immediate chips are 10 to 1. Demand's increased call by 30% since June from what we see. You look at hyperscaler, this is a capex supercycle. So, it's my view if you're in the second, third inning to be sort of bearish or nervous here, I just view it as short-sided because I think there's a tech bull market that goes on for another 2 years.
And I think these are golden buying opportunities for the names that I view where street's underestimating numbers 20, 30% over the next 12 to 18 months. But do you think there will be a point where the where the capex should get more scrutinized? Um, you know, until the profitability materializes to match the level of spending?
Yeah, and look, and I get the scrutiny. I view it obviously Meta and Oracle and and you see some of the worries there, the circular financing in terms of open AI, but to me it's all about you're building out a new economy on the consumer, on the enterprise front. For every dollar they put on capex, they're going to ultimately make 8 to 10 dollars on that over the coming years.
So, I just think that is the best move for these companies in the arms race. And that's why for Meta, I know I got to talk about that's a table pounder on that stock in the sell-off. Oracle, same thing. And you know, so many times we've talked about in your show like these are the opportunities where there's deep seek or other moments.
And then investors are like, I missed it. But these will be the opportunities. I think you're going to have a massive tech rally into year-end. Dan, Oracle's a great example. Uh, what explains that early September gap getting filled as we are back to the 200-day here for the first time since June? Yeah, Carl, I think it's just worries about debt taken on financing, capex, the depreciation, the open AI pop, like did did they get over their skis?
And actually, I disagree. I think Oracle, this is this is a massive renaissance that they're going to see. I mean, you talk about they're 2% penetration within their installed base when it comes to AI. Everything they're doing are the right moves. And I think this sell-off here, we're going to look back 3, 6, 9 months from now, and this was just I think a golden buying opportunity on Oracle.
And I think right now, the nervousness is coming out, but it just comes back to 3% of US enterprises have gone down the AI path. And I think that goes to 20% over the next 18, 24 months. That's what you're playing for, especially in the second, third, fourth derivatives. We see it cybersecurity. I see a human proof authentication.
I see it on, you know, infrastructure, NetApp, Cisco, CoreWeave, and others. Does that view extend to Tesla, which as we said earlier this morning is now red for the year and worst-performing Mag 7? I think actually Tesla is probably of all of these names, that's probably the one to me that sticks out the most because in my opinion, the future about autonomous and robotics, Musk obviously right now wartime CEO, you look at the coming years, I think Tesla's a two trillion and ultimately three trillion dollar market cap because autonomous 80% autonomous, I think Tesla's going to own.
So, I get the stock selling off here because you can't see it in the numbers, but I mean, this is something where I look out, 600 base case, 800 bull case. And Carl, that's my view. I mean, I think this is only like I talked about, this is just the early days of a , the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.
Yeah, I mean, that that that's the bull case, Dan. So, do aren't there going to be winners and losers? Sounds like you like all of the big players. Yeah, and Sarah, there's going to be losers. I mean, if you Adobe, are they a loser? If you look at like, you know, some of the other sort of large cap names, like they're trying to sort of I mean, I think Salesforce, you know, could is going to be a winner, but they're obviously under a lot of pressure from a software perspective.
You know, you look at some of the infrastructure plays like a Cisco, they're turning it around. I think it's really more about the second, third, fourth derivatives in software. I look at names like Nebius. I look at names like CoreWeave in the sell-off because it's all to me about for every dollar and this is the most important stat, for every dollar spent on Nvidia chip, there's an 8 to 10 dollar multiplier across the rest of tech.
Three trillion that's going to be spent next 2 years. Right, so who so but but you in your view, it's all the hyperscalers that are the winners, the Amazons, the Googles, the Microsofts. Meta you said as a table pounder. So, everybody that's spending big now. Well, I view it as if they're not spending, I actually view it as a negative.
Like if if Meta ultimately pulled back and they raised numbers for next year and they cut capex, I would view that as a huge negative because Zuckerberg right now wartime CEO building out what could be monetization in incremental 40, 50% on advertising, on the consumer side, and even as they build out on the glasses and on the hardware side.
That's the smart move for Meta. I also look at names like when you think about we've talked about it in the power side, nuclear names like Oklo and others. I mean, this all is about the second, third, fourth derivatives. People think that this is sort of a white-knuckle, clock strikes midnight moment.
I've talked about it, this is nowhere near a bubble. It's a 1996 moment, not a 1999, 2000 bubble moment. Is there any demarcation line between names you would like and not like? Oklo's a great example where you're either talking about no profits or in some cases in quantum, for example, minimal revenue.
Sure. Yeah, and Carl, I think that's where you have to be selective in terms of like the winners and who ultimately is going to be that. I think there's going to be other nuclear plays, right? There's going to be other power plays out there. If I see the demand is showing cracks and I see customers cutting back, the ROI is not there, use cases aren't exploding, then we get negative.
But to some extent, it's the opposite if you look at where we are right now. And I just think like globally, given where US tech is, this continues to be what you want to own. And I think for the winners, you and and look, if you focus just on valuation one year out, two year out, you missed every transformational tech stock the last 20 years.
And that's why I focus on what we talk about in our Ives AI 30, who are the winners in the different sectors. All right, Dan, make a full-throated case. Thank you very much for joining us. We appreciate it. Dan Ives from Wedbush.
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