저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 AI 붐에 반대하는 대규모 베어리시 포지션을 잡았다는 내용. 오라클은 약 950억 달러 부채로 OpenAI 3000억 달러 계약 실행 리스크가 크고 주가가 고점 대비 약 40% 하락했다고 설명. 엔비디아는 시장 심리가 과열되어 풋옵션이 저렴하다는 이유로 베팅 대상. 메타·알파벳·마이크로소프트는 핵심 사업이 견고해 숏 대상에서 제외됐다고 설명. 버리는 오픈AI가 5000억 달러 가치라면 숏하겠다는 입장을 밝힌 것으로 전해짐.
다듬은 글
Welcome to deep diving. As always , our mission is to eliminate the noise . We scrutinize all sources, financial statements, and investor materials to ensure we deliver the essential knowledge you need . And today, we'll delve into the thinking of Michael Barry, a true contrarian investor . That's the guy from "The Big Short." Yes, that person.
If there is anyone who can see the cracks in the foundation when everyone is intoxicated , it would be him. According to our sources, he appears to be systematically going against the AI boom . Moreover, this is not a small gamble . They have taken a large bearish position against the very company that is building the AI infrastructure, specifically Oracle .
Yes, Oracle is a major target . It's quite interesting that they're shorting companies that are actively transitioning to AI . Don't you think that's contradictory ? While a massive technological revolution in AI is underway, Michael Barry is taking the opposite stance and going against it . And his main target, Oracle, has just signed a massive deal with OpenAI, the darling of the AI industry, which is expected to be a game-changer .
Ironically , it's the perfect deal. And if you want to understand his thinking, this timing is everything. He clarified these positions . We're talking about put options and direct shorts over the past six months . This is a recent development that I'm quite confident about. That's right. And this is n't a one-time thing.
This comes shortly after I placed similar bets on Nvidia and Palantir . He's not just looking at one company , but the entire system . Okay, let's delve into that . The best way to understand it is probably through his own words about Oracle . That's quite harsh. Oh, that's right. He said: "I don't like their positioning or their investment strategy .
They didn't need to do what they're doing now , and I don't understand why they're doing it. It's probably ego." It's probably ego. In other words, that short phrase says it all. That's very insightful. As you know, he is not criticizing the strategy or the financial thinking behind it . What he's really targeting is the fundamental problem with Oracle's sudden, ultra-aggressive move into cloud computing .
This is to compete with giant corporations like Amazon and Microsoft . that's right . And to handle all of the AI's work , yes. We need to build a massive amount of data center capacity . And it needs to be done quickly . It's definitely not cheap. So, let's move from ego to specific numbers. How do they pay for all of this?
This is the very core of Barry's argument . The driving force behind this entire expansion is just one thing: debt. Oops. that's right . Oracle has approximately $95 billion in debt. 95 billion dollars. Please wait a moment . Let's pause for a moment and think about this number . Could you explain this number to everyone listening, in context?
Why are these numbers so worrying for someone like Barry? Now, please listen to this. This figure makes Oracle the largest issuer of corporate debt outside of the financial sector as a whole . Excluding banks. that's right. For technology companies , this represents incredible leverage, according to the Bloomberg High Grade Index .
So, what does it actually mean ? Why does Barry dislike this so much? That means two things that are warning signs for him . First, you lose all flexibility . Even if competitors gain a price advantage or new technologies emerge, the company is still burdened with repaying massive debts. You cannot change direction .
You will be unable to move . You will be completely unable to move . And when interest rates are high (which they actually are), debt becomes even heavier. It will crush future profits . In other words, Barry sees this as companies using leverage to take maximum risk in order to raise funds for speculative shifts in direction .
In other words, on one hand, there is a huge amount of debt , and on the other hand, there is a reason why they incurred that debt . A big prize. A deal with Sam Altman. Transactions with OpenAI. Let's talk about the central figure that has excited investors so much . In other words, this is headline-worthy news.
In September 2025, Oracle announced a $300 billion, five-year cloud agreement with OpenAI . $300 billion ? that's right . ChatGPT is an idea that will run on Oracle's cloud and purchase computing power from Oracle starting in 2027 . This quickly brought Oracle into the spotlight as a true contender in the AI cloud competition .
From an analyst's perspective , doesn't a $300 billion deal make $95 billion in debt seem like a pretty shrewd investment? That's how it looks on paper. It looks perfect. However, this is precisely where Barry's thesis regarding execution risks becomes important . It's all a matter of timing . Mismatch in timing.
This expression is absolutely perfect. Oracle now has to spend billions of dollars to buy chips , build data centers , and hire people for the next two to three years . Before the major revenue from that massive contract even begins to come in, all that cash will be gone. Moreover, the revenue won't start until 2027.
that's right. In other words, they are currently building something in an extremely costly environment, at enormous expense, for profits that will last for many years to come . And what potential problems might arise between now and that time ? So, what exactly are the specific obstacles? Oh, there are so many.
First of all, building a data center on that scale and at that speed is incredibly complex in itself. Supply chain problems arise for everything, including power, cooling, and network equipment . It's a nightmare. That's right . Next, they will be competing with Amazon and Microsoft, who have already built up this much capacity .
They are already operating it on a large scale . Yeah. If Oracle experiences any delays, or if the AI landscape changes before 2027 , the $95 billion debt will start to look more like debt than an investment . Moreover, it's a massive debt. Barry is betting that this enormous financial and operational pressure will eventually break down .
And you saw how the market panicked in response to this very tension, didn't you ? That's absolutely right . The rapid changes were unbelievable. Immediately after trading began, Oracle released a rosy outlook, and its stock price surged. What was it again ? 36% in one day? It was an incredible surge.
ca n't believe it. However, reality was brought to the forefront. Once investors started looking at the cost of capital and debt levels , profits quickly vanished . Stock prices fell by approximately 40% from their September peak by the end of 2025 . I can't believe it dropped by 40%. In other words, this decline essentially means that the market has priced in the very risk that Barry is betting on.
That's all. This shows how much investors fear that burden . So, if Oracle is a fragile gamble on the future, backed by debt and ego , why does n't Barry short it all ? Why only Oracle and NVIDIA? Why are they avoiding giant corporations like Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft ? This is a very important part of his way of thinking .
It all boils down to his pure short-selling of what he perceives as an AI boom. Pure short selling. What does that mean? That means he believes Oracle and Nvidia are particularly vulnerable . A large portion of the current stock price is directly linked to the success of this AI development . However, the Big Three are protected.
It is protected by a huge and dominant existing business. Let's take a closer look at that . What is the difference between shorting Meta and shorting Oracle ? Please think about it . Shorting Meta means you're not just betting on their AI project . This means you're also betting on Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp .
Their giant advertising machine. A gigantic digital advertising machine that prints money from billions of users. The business provides a kind of protective bottom for the stock price . Even if their AI business runs at a loss for 10 years , their core business will generate cash flow. The same logic applies to Alphabet and Microsoft.
That's exactly right . Short selling Alphabet is equivalent to short selling Google Search. This will result in short selling Android . Basically, you're shorting the entire digital information economy . I hope that bet pays off . Yes, that's exactly right. Shorting Microsoft means betting on Windows and Office .
You're essentially betting on the software that every company on Earth uses . In other words, in his view, the Big Three might be wasting enormous amounts of money on AI . We might overinvest . There's even a possibility of incurring losses . However, because those core businesses are so robust , the companies themselves are not really exposed to any real danger .
That is my firm conviction. He said it directly. " These three companies will never disappear." For them, investing in AI infrastructure is just one part of a much larger, much more stable company. By targeting them , you won't get a clean and pure chance at the AI theme . That makes perfect sense .
Now, let's go back to the other half of his pure short position, Nvidia . He calls it the best way to bet on the AI boom . Why? This is more related to market sentiment than to the balance sheet . got it. Nvidia is the ultimate bargain in this AI gold rush, isn't it ? We're making chips that everyone needs .
According to sources , Barry considers Nvidia to be the most popular and least suspected stock on the market . Yes, it sounds like the worst possible stock to short . Wouldn't betting against the consensus usually come at a very high price ? That seems counterintuitive . That's true, but that's what's so great about this deal .
From a financial perspective , it all boils down to the cost of insurance . This is the cost of a put option . That's right. If a stock is so popular that everyone is convinced it will go up in value , nobody thinks it will go down. Therefore, very few people buy put options, which offer protection against a decline .
Therefore, the demand for that insurance is low. Because the risk is extremely low, the price of that insurance is cheap. By purchasing Nvidia put options , Barry can gain the right to later sell shares at a higher price for a fraction of the cost of shorting a company that everyone already dislikes .
In other words, he's taking out fire insurance on buildings that everyone believes to be fireproof . This is a perfect analogy. They are betting on a decline in sentiment using a low- cost, high-leverage method . If he is correct and the AI cycle stalls, these inexpensive options could be incredibly valuable .
I see, that makes the entire strategy much clearer . This is not just one thing . On the one hand, there's Oracle's debt and execution risk; on the other hand, there's Nvidia's overheated sentiment . It all boils down to a fundamental doubt about the pace of everything. that's right . He's not saying that AI is fake .
The market is now pricing in the complete completion of the project, which is years from now . And to truly understand just how skeptical he is, the source makes an interesting point . He said he would short OpenAI itself . To all the core companies? that's right . He said he would short OpenAI if it were valued at $500 billion .
It's $500 billion. He's basically assigning numbers to bubbles . He's saying he believes in the technology, but he doesn't believe in its pricing . That's exactly right. He senses instability. When future dreams are financed with today's debt and priced at an impossibly high multiple , that's where he's trying to find the limit .
This concludes the detailed analysis . Let's summarize the important points . Michael Barry's big move here is n't actually to dislike AI. The task is to scrutinize the unstable financial infrastructure being built to support AI . that's right. He's probably driven by what he calls ego, accumulating massive debt and betting on companies that are pursuing markets that may not be as profitable or stable as everyone assumes .
The core conflict here is the tension between promises for the future, massive open AI contracts, and current financial realities. That's all there is to it. The promise refers to a $300 billion contract . In reality, there is a massive debt of $95 billion and the enormous risk that it may not be repaid in time .
And we must not forget that this investor had spotted a similar imbalance in the housing market before 2008 . That background explains everything. Yeah. Finally, here's a thought-provoking one. If an investor with Barry's track record doesn't bet on these massive deals, but instead bets that corporate arrogance will lead to ruin , what does that tell us about the current overall risk tolerance of the market ?
That 's a great question. Is the AI boom becoming so powerful that it's blinding everyone to the classic financial risks that have brought down every speculative boom in history: debt, over-construction, and execution failure ? Where is the turning point when debt becomes heavier than dreams ? It's worth considering .
surely. It all depends on the underlying structure of the story . See you next time on a deep dive!
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