저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 피터 쉬프는 지속되는 인플레이션이 저소득 근로자와 고정소득층에 가장 큰 피해를 주며, 정부·연준의 과잉 통화공급이 원인이라고 주장하고 달러 폭락을 예상한다. 인플레이션 현황: 목재 가격은 8개월간 약 800% 상승, 주가지수 급등, 포켓몬 카드·NFT 등에서 이상 가격 급등이 나타나 고전적 인플레이션 신호라고 주장. CPI 수치는 아직 미미하나 몇 달 내 드러날 것이라고 봄. 피해 계층: 인플레이션은 저소득 근로계층과 고정소득자에게 사실상 세금처럼 작용하며 불균형적으로 타격을 준다고 주장. 정책 원인: 정부가 세금 대신 연준의 화폐 발행으로 재정지출을 충당하고 있어 인플레이션이 불가피하며, 1970년대 스태그플레이션보다 더 나쁠 수 있다고 주장. 현재 CPI 기준으로 재계산하면 1970년대보다 빠르게 상승 중이라고 함. 출구 전망: 폴 볼커 같은 인기 없는 결단을 내릴 사람이 필요하나 정치적으로 어렵다고 평가. 1971년 금태환 중단 등 과거 정책 실패를 언급. 금리·채권: 미국 10년물 금리가 1.4% 수준으로 인플레이션(약 5%)에 비해 현실을 반영하지 않는 '환상'이라고 주장. 모든 자산이 왜곡된 가격에 거래되고 있다고 봄. 신흥국 전망: 달러가 붕괴하면 신흥국 통화 강세와 함께 신흥국에 유리해질 것으로 예상, 미국 물가 하락 효과도 언급. 출연자 전망(모스크바 소피아 등 패널 발언 포함): 신흥국 통화가 미국 달러보다 강할 수 있다고 봄. 신용 버블과 2008년 상반기 유사 상황에서의 급락 가능성 경고. 주식·기타: 전반적 자산 버블 우려, 밈주식·암호화폐 과열 언급. 특정 종목 직접 추천은 없음.
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you know you know pete one one of the arguments out there is that if if this inflationary trend is sustained then it will dramatically cut back on consumption these things will be just too expensive here i mean how does that play into what is what is called what is called uh the recovery from the pandemic because you know we could go through a a a a w a v k all the all the alphabet letters here but how is that going to affect the recovery and who's going to be hurt most we've already mentioned working people go ahead pete so the problems uh of inflation fall most heavily upon people who have either low income uh the working poor and and also people on a fixed income because the reduction of the value of dollars while receiving the same amount of dollars basically winds up being a sort of a tax um you know i pointed out before that the cpi numbers are a little bit uh misleading but we have seen classic inflationary effects in both financial markets and in commodities which is perfectly in line with both economic theory and history lumber prices rose something like 800 percent over an eight-month period stock indices have skyrocketed there's weird price spikes in places like pokemon cards and non-fungible tokens so while the cpi number uh you know is kind of nothing nothing burgers so far we'll know in a few months um we're receiving a lot of big signals but commodities whether it's lumber or whether it's food commodities all that sort of thing affect everyone so it won't be long before these price increases do start to affect everybody but disproportionately we're going to see an effect on the poor and people on a fixed income okay sophia in moscow here i mean just 30 seconds before we go to the break here i mean is there any kind of coordinated global approach to dealing with this problem because it it's it's growing in magnitude and it's coming fast go ahead well i would say that the the now the monetary policy response is discoordinated again just because emerging market already started the normalization cycle of the monetary policy so we're moving closer to neutral rates some somehow offsetting the effect of the increase of the rate and i think that importantly what we see now is that very unusual uh dynamics between uh the emerging market and developed market like for example the u.s inflation is now uh higher than it it is in most emerging markets that i look at all right let's go back to peter in weston uh peter you know we've we've talked about how economists look at this we have three economists on the panel here um and all of you make a lot of perfect sense to me but it's really a political problem at the end of the day because a lot of promises have been made promises are going to be made here it's it's about how we get out of this crisis here and the powers that be decided you spend your way out okay and all three of you have enumerated so far in this program the immense dangers of it and they're not they they don't have the downside like the rest of us okay working people they're the ones are going to suffer the most and they will be a backlash we at least three of us here remember the 1970s in stagflation go ahead peter well of course it is political i mean the biden administration every member of congress wants to give the voters something for nothing right the government wants to make sure that all the people who don't have jobs many of them of course are just choosing not to have jobs but the government wants to make sure that they have plenty of money to spend even though they didn't earn that money even though they didn't help produce any goods or provide any services the government wants to give the money to buy goods and services well where's the money coming from they're not raising taxes they're just spending the money and so the money is being created it's being conjured into existence by the federal reserve but that is inflation you see every single dollar that the federal government spends the american public has to cover the cost and so if they're not going to take our money through taxation they're going to take our purchasing power through inflation and so they print all this money the government spends the money but the federal reserve prints the money and it goes into the economy and now as non-productive unemployed people go to buy stuff they didn't help produce all that happens is the price goes up and it's amazing that people don't understand or they expect that we can have all this list all this government for free there is no such thing as a free lunch we're in spending is going to keep getting worse and of course as government spends more it weakens the economy which means even more spending inflation is going to go through the roof and we keep talking about the 1970s what we're going to experience is going to be far worse and in fact it probably already is worse than the 1970s if we were using the cpi that existed back then to measure prices right now we would see that the cpi is already rising at a faster rate than it ever did in the 1970s and we're just going up from here okay well let me go to pete in great barrington i mean but then how does all of this end here because it seems like um it's we're chasing our tail here because uh you know you can pump in all of this money here but if people uh can't afford goods um then you're gonna start seeing sectors of the economy collapsing here i mean how how do you get out of this trap that this trap of just keep pumping money because the more you pump the less it's worth go ahead pete in great barriers someone yeah someone's going to have to be the adult in the room and eventually you have to take the action that will end this in the late 70s it was paul volcker we don't know the name of the person at least i don't think we do we'll do it this time but uh you know the government tends to tends to prolong these things and generate more and more unintended consequences as inflation started to rise in the 70s nixon put on price controls and then a host of other uh things happened about 50 years ago actually almost to the date a few months away we had the final severing of the dollar from gold i was i think august 15 1971 and so eventually somebody is gonna have to be a really unpopular person and either try to choke off the flow of new money into the money supply uh or or or or maybe you know you would hope that that they would look at the the the the um incentives that the fed faces which are highly asymmetrical you know everybody loves lower interest rates and more money but people don't usually like rising interest rates and a a decrease in the uh in the money supply so someone eventually is going to have to rise up and do the unpopular things and although they won't be liked for it they will be doing the right thing and they will be doing something really sort of heroic portions at that point okay sophia here in moscow here i mean how is this going to affect affect emerging markets i mean first of all a lot of these economies are still feeling the the very strong impact of the covid crisis i mean western news agencies tend to focus on western countries here but when you look at countries you know go through asia we have india has a major crisis still dealing with it uh south america also here i mean how is this going if we have a surge of inflation here and we still have these supply chains that are you know been uh cut or very very weak here how does it how does the global economy recover from this because governments are always looking at single countries here but if we look at it and broadly here i mean it seems to me they're going to be on very much on the short end of the stick here i mean you start recovering and then all of a sudden you get this huge wave of inflation coming at you well yeah peter is exactly the point so kobe is still here and the worries are still here so all eyes not only on like a developed market but also on emerging markets itself the problem is still here and uncertainty is still here but uh again i would note two points here and the first that i i was already talked about is that inflation is high in the emerging market but it is sometimes it's even lower than is in developed market or in u.s now so that's actually makes like the position in in financial markets it actually means that emerging market currencies could potentially gain from from from this new reality let's say so they potentially could feel stronger than u.s dollar uh going forward that's the first and the second point is that probably yeah could we could be in a case of uh 17th but it could also be in in the first half of uh 2008 just because uh i i i remember that it was a hot topic a globalization as it is now in the first half of 2008 and it ends up uh with a huge correction in financial markets and uh credit defaults so i think that though i'm not that concerned about like sustainable inflation i'm pretty much concerned about credit bubbles and potential creditories and the potential correction that could follow so we only could wait for a let's say another uh black swan to come to just trigger the correction that could be a very broad-based that's exactly where i wanted to go peter in western here i mean what we see here with all of this uh cash injections here is this huge i mean we talked about like the housing bubble but i think almost every sector is turned into a bubble right now it's really quite terrifying watching it here the amount of money that is being pumped in is over the last uh 14 months it's hard to comprehend and it's out there and it's just not housing it's just not one sector it seems to me this is like a perfect storm to collide go ahead peter oh sure because of the federal reserve and these reckless monetary policies just about every single financial asset is dramatically mispriced and that has you know tremendous distortions in the economy and massive negative implications just look at the bond market look at the yield on a 10-year u.s treasury which is below one and a half percent it's like 1.4 inflation is five times that and look at the yield there's no way that that yield reflects reality it reflects it reflects fantasy and everything is priced to fantasy you know you have the extreme examples in meme stops stocks or cryptocurrencies but the fed has done tremendous damage and there is no savior on the horizon that's going to do the right thing like paul volcker because the consequences are doing of doing the right thing are so horrific at this point that they're never going to be tried but of course the consequences of continuing to do the work the wrong thing are even more horrific but that's what's going to happen because politicians don't give a damn about that all they want to do is kick the can down the road as long as they can they don't care if they make the problem worse just so long as it blows up later rather than sooner and that is what is going to happen but i think on the emerging markets they're going to finally be the big beneficiaries because we're going to print the dollar into oblivion the dollar is going to crash and then what's going to happen is a lot of the goods that are being sent to the united states are no longer going to come to the united states because nobody here will be able to afford to buy them and so all those goods that are produced abroad will stay abroad and so prices will come down for people in emerging markets as their currencies go way up and things become cheaper for them as americans get priced out of all these markets because our currency is going to lose so much value that we can no longer you
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