Preston Pysh on The Economic Machine and Ray Dalio, on The Jay Gould Show

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결론: 영상은 특정 자산의 단기 가격 예측이 아니라 레이 달리오의 '경제 기계' 장기 부채 사이클 모델에 대한 개인적 경험담이며, 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다. 출연자는 가치투자를 배우던 중 2008~2009년 금융위기를 겪었고, 이후 Tony Robbins의 책 'Money Master the Game'을 통해 레이 달리오를 알게 되었다고 말한다. 달리오의 금 보유 권고와 채권 비중(약 55%)에 대해서는 의문을 제기하며, 0%대 금리 환경에서 물가연동채(TIPS)를 사야 한다는 식으로 비판적 견해를 밝힌다. 달리오의 '경제 기계 작동 원리' 영상을 2014~2015년 무렵 처음 보고 경제를 바라보는 관점이 바뀌었다고 설명한다. 금리가 핵심 변수이며 장기 부채 사이클이 중요하다는 점에 공감한다. 다만 2016~2017년쯤에는 달리오가 제시한 '플레이북'이 그대로 적용되지 않는다고 느꼈다고 말한다. 달리오가 위기가 올 것이라는 점은 맞지만 대비 방법은 틀렸다고 평가하며, 영상 끝의 '아름다운 디레버리징' 시나리오는 비판받을 만하다고 본다. 2008년 폭락을 겪은 이후 근본적으로 아무것도 해결되지 않았다고 믿어 왔으며, QE는 채권시장 매입을 통한 돈 찍기에 불과해 문제를 해결하지 못한다고 주장한다. 달리오의 저작을 더 찾아 읽겠다는 개인적 학습 계획을 밝히며 영상이 마무리된다. 언급 자산의 단기 방향 예측 발언은 없으며, 금·채권에 대한 평가는 달리오 전략에 대한 비판이지 향후 1~3개월 가격 전망이 아니다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. to learning about value investing and as you're learning about value investing 2008 you have the crisis 2009 and you now you're learning all these principles and you're saying like this doesn't apply anymore right like it's running away valuations are going in a place it doesn't make any sense Buffett's been wrong for 10 years plus right what was your origin story when did you first learn about it and when did you make that first purchase and I'm guessing it was like oh my God there's finally a life raft a savior to everything I Learned was great except I'm not buffing it's not 1965 and I don't have a 6 p e ratio anymore it's like 30.

02. what happened we read a book by Tony Robbins called money Master the game and in this book he just went on and on and on about Ray dalio and I was like my God this guy is just all weather risk parody and I didn't know anything about any of that and I was reading the book from Tony Robbins and he was talking about gold and people like I mean this podcast is it's I'm assuming it's still published it's probably out there um I remember we were reviewing his book on the show he talks about Ray dalio recommending gold in your portfolio and I was just like all right I've had it like what's going on here I know like Warren Buffett has told me that if you take all the gold and you put it in the infield of the baseball field and all this kind of stuff like he has all his little talking points and I was like I'm just not buying it this is nuts like if anything go out and buy a tips right an inflation protected uh Bond but that's the other thing part he had 55 allocation towards bonds when we're at zero percent practicing it's like well what if they go what if they go up again he's not telling people if you're gonna at least buy bonds you got to buy tips right like I was I thought that was a little irresponsible I think we talked about that I was like I don't I don't know why he he's recently corrected that actually so I read this book and I'm saying I'm sorry but I've got to read more on this read dalio guy because he's making such a big deal about him and so it led me to actually finding this the video that I think every everybody knows about now called uh how the economic machine works and at the time when I discovered this it might have been like late 2014 maybe early 2015 that I watched this video for the first time and after watching this 30 minute video it was almost like this moment where everything you thought you knew about the economy was just kind of I don't want to say it was flipped upside down but it was almost like I was seeing in two dimensions and I started to be able to see in three dimensions for the first time was it the rates because he everything's rates with him right like is that the eye opener for dalio with for you with Delia the eye opener for me was just the long-term site yes yeah it was that's I wasn't even knowing the rates and how everything is related to the the risk rebate I wasn't even aware of the long-term cycle it's like all I knew was gave us the inside Playbook the problem is by the time he gave it to us and we found out like maybe a couple years after that right maybe 2016-17 I'm like this Playbook doesn't apply anymore right like it's it's yeah I mean he's right about there's a crisis coming he's wrong about the approach on how to protect against it in my opinion but he provides the four talking points on like how it gets resolved and then he talks about this beautiful deleveraging at the end which everyone beats him up about and I think for good reason and then that's it but that didn't for me it didn't invalidate all the other stuff in the video that I just intuitively was looking at and saying that makes total sense and that's scary as hell because before watching this video you know I experienced I was in the market during the 2008 crash and you know I watched my my uh my stocks that I owned go down in a you know dramatic way it was just like this moment like my God like what the hell is this and what caused this and ever since 2008-2009 I was always under the opinion that nothing was fixed fundamentally but I didn't know what was broke yeah I just knew that QE was them printing a bunch of money and buying the bond market I knew that and I was just like this isn't solving nothing like central banks have to let things normalize if we if we actually want to live in a free and open market economy and they weren't letting it happen and so when I watched the the dalio video I quickly was like all right well now I realize why Tony Robbins is making a big deal about why this guy's so smart so now let me read anything and everything I can get my hands on that this guy's ever written