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let's bring in our headliner today let's just get right to them tom lee funstrat managing partner i might as well call you mr all in um not jim because you've been all in for what seems like forever are you still looking at 4 700 on the s p 500 by the end of this year tom lee uh yeah i i know september was an ugly month uh really tough down five percent but in the scheme of a market that could end the year at 4700 i i'd agree with josh and all the other panels that that's just a squiggle uh you know as we zoom out it's going to look like nothing in 12 months and i i know investors are nervous and there's a lot of headwinds here but as you know when when when the wall of warrior is big that's also a good opportunity for investors i know but why did we have such a bad month of september i mean it's seasonal i get it but it's more than that and now we're entering what is also a typical tough month and that and that's october i feel like we're just brushing off what just happened in september as if it doesn't even exist uh yeah it would definitely there was definitely a message coming out of markets in september uh because it really puts us at that knife edge of if you're half full or half empty you know are these reef inflationary pressures we're seeing signs of good demand or is it stagnation you know is washington turmoil something that's resolved or does it get worse into 2022 you know in 2024 um are we at peak everything you know is rising rates bad or good i think there's a lot of questions but to me i i think and jim mentioned this and stephanie the fact that cyclicals outperformed in september to me is a a really major signal it says that economic resilience is strong we're definitely seeing a mixed shift in the stock market and i think people are quite exhausted with coben i think the fact that merck does have a pill really does alleviate those concerns about vaccination penetration and you know it's it would be a very convenient and as dr gottlieb says i mean a game-changing solution so it's a positive catalyst i get you but i mean rising rates are in their own way a game-changing situation for stocks and multiples and valuations and if they do start to go up multiples are going to be depressed i mean we we can't ignore all of the things that you just said are an undeniable positive but they come perhaps with even higher rates than what we have now anticipating an even stronger economy in the months if not years ahead once we can say okay kovid's endemic but it's not paralyzing to us anymore yeah that's right uh i know the market cares about rate of change so the fact that rates have gone from one one to one five uh is concerning because it is a big you know basis point change but two years ago if we asked investors you know is the s p gonna have multiple compression because interest rates are two percent nobody would really have considered that level to even threaten the bull market you know two years ago we would have said four or six percent would be the risk the issue so i think as people look at one and a half percent today or even one eight or one nine or two it's not really a level that burdens companies it doesn't really burden homeowners it doesn't really burden people with debt and i don't think it should burden equity holders now you've been sticking with your call as well of stay overweight fang and those stocks have been tricky lately at best right they feel like they're in the midst of a last september a year ago weakness right now yeah the market was okay because all of the other stocks did well you get my point right there was a lot of slack pick up the weight and i'm just wondering if that's going to happen again if those stocks weaken for a more prolonged period what that's going to mean to the overall story yeah that's a great question scott uh you know last september the overcrowding and fang was uh significant because they were your stay-at-home play it did save people's bacons to own fang for not only 10 years but throughout the pandemic last year but in 2021 thanks not as credited trade so the the fundamental question is going to be are fang margins at risk because rates rise um our quant adam gold did a great analysis shows that fang operating margins actually could rise if rates are rising and fang's relative performance during inflationary periods is actually quite good so i think we're fearing something in fang but because it's not as crowded i think they have the capability to rally pretty strong
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