저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 은행권과 달러 체제가 금리 상승 시 붕괴할 것이라며, 금·은 등 실물자산 매수를 권고한다. 은행 부실 주장: 무디스의 17개 글로벌 은행 신용등급 하향이 예상되며, 쉬프는 등급 하향이 충분하지 않고 미국 대형은행들이 2008년보다 더 크게 실패할 것이라고 봤다. 원인은 정부 개입과 구제금융으로 인한 도덕적 해이라고 주장했다. 시점 전망: 연준이 금리 통제력을 잃고 금리가 크게 오르면 은행 실패가 생기며, 유럽 위기로 달러·국채로 피난처 수요가 몰려 현재 금리가 일시적으로 낮게 유지되고 있다고 봤다. 미국 정부도 5~7~10% 금리를 감당하지 못한다고 주장했다. 재정 관련: 미국은 연간 약 1조5천억 달러 적자를 내고 있어 유럽 구제에 나설 여력이 없고, 돈을 찍는 것 외에 방법이 없다고 말했다. 개인 대응 조언: 중앙은행이 찍어내는 통화, 특히 달러에서 벗어나 금·은을 사고, 신흥국 주식과 더 나은 통화 표시 채권을 권고했다. 후속 인터뷰 주장: 실질 금리가 0%라 저축이 없고 부채가 GDP보다 빠르게 늘고 있으며, 금리가 시장에서 결정되어야 한다고 주장했다. JP모건 손실 20억 달러 언급을 통해 금리가 정상화되면 대형은행 손실이 커질 것이라 봤다. 주식시장: 단기 하락 위험은 있으나 중앙은행이 주가 폭락을 막기 위해 돈을 더 찍을 것이라 보았고, 이는 실질 경제에는 좋지 않다고 평가했다. 그리스/유로: 그리스가 유로에 남는 것이 장기적으로 더 나쁘다고 보며, 그리스 이탈 시 실질임금 하락이 줄어든다고 주장했다. 독일의 재정 부담에 대한 우려도 언급했다. 타 출연자: 진행자 외 Rick Santelli(CNBC), Bill Speropoulos(CoreStates Capital Advisers)는 미국 경기 지표 및 그리스 상황에 대해 상대적으로 낙관하는 의견을 냈다. 기타 언급: 이번 영상의 핵심 예측은 대형은행 부실과 달러 약세·금리 상승 리스크이며, 미국 주식은 단기 하락 후 중앙은행 개입으로 명목가격이 오를 수 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
there's some major developments in the financial crisis in Europe an aid package coming to the rescue of Spain specifically Spain's troubled Banks worth as much as $125 billion stock markets in Europe initially reacted well but finished the day mixed and Wall Street today down just a little bit 33 points in the Dow alarm Bells though are also ringing for banks in this country Moody's is expected to announced this week the downgrade of 17 Global Banks including some of the biggest US Financial firms joining us live Peter shiff president of europacific capital and author of the new book America's coming bankruptcy how to save yourself and your country on that optimistic note as always Peter nice to have you back with us thanks for having me on let's talk a little bit about the banks first uh I know this has been Telegraph that potentially these downgrades could be coming what does it mean for us well first I don't think the downgrades will go far enough I think the banks are in a lot worse shape than some of these rating agencies appreciate but we have to understand why is it that banks are in so much trouble and the reason is because of all the government involvement in the banking sector it's the government involvement that subsidizes all of their risk-taking the banks are in so much debt because the government has led them down this Primrose path and then we think bailouts are a solution it's just a moral hazard it encourages more of the same bad behavior that government Poli policy created in the first place so I think we really need to get the government out of the banking sector as much as possible but I already believe that they've done so much damage that many of our major banks in this country I believe are going to fail in a more spectacular way than they did in 2008 as soon as the FED loses control of interest rates and they go a lot higher I think these big banks are going to fail and there's going to be huge losses as a result you're not alone but we we should point out to our viewers that this is your opinion on the way that you're looking at the financial sector right now is there a timeline you have is do you see these bank failures happening soon 5 10 years from now or sooner than that well I think it'll be sooner than that I mean right now we're buying some time based on the problems in Europe because people are so worried about the Euro and the Euro Zone they're taking refuge in the dollar and the treasury market and that is temporarily keeping our interest rates lower and allowing our government to keep on spending and Americans to keep on borrowing and spending but eventually we're not going to be able to do that anymore people are going to be worried about all the money we're printing all the inflation we're creating and interest rates I think are going to move up in a very spectacular way and we are so leveraged we can't handle it not only can't the banks handle it the federal government can't handle it I mean our government can no long more handle a five or a seven or 10% interest rate than can the government in Greece or or Italy or Spain Peter we just had I just want to point out viewers we're trying to get your camera back centered if we can it's always good to have our guests in the middle of the screen and sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't but Peter we we're still listening to what you have to say and and there's been calls you know people on the uh maybe sharing a different opinion uh from you say listen the United States government has to get even more involved in Europe because if we don't get more involved now and jump in uh in whatever way that means and there's a lack of specifics on that then then that's going to just crush us uh 6 12 how can we get involved when we're already broke our government is running a budget deficit of a trillion almost a trillion and a half dollars a year where're in in debt all we can do is print money I mean so we're printing all this money right now to bridge the gap between what we collect in tax and what we spend so we just going to print even more money and give it to the Europeans how is that going to help let me just ask you real quick because I have to run you know you're a financial adviser you give a lot of advice out there again it's your opinion but what advice do you give to some of your customers and the average person out there on how to protect themselves well I I outlined a chapter in my latest book The America's coming bankruptcy you get out of anything that these central banks are printing particularly dollars I think you buy gold you buy silver you look at some of the emerging economies buy stocks abroad buy bonds from in in in better currencies than the ones that are being run off the printing presses we have a huge financial crisis coming it's not in our past it's in our future and these downgrades in the in the banks this is just the beginning it's going to get a lot worse Europe is simply a precursor of what's going to happen in the United States that's the preview the show the main show is going to be playing out here in the United States on this side of the Atlantic and people had better be prepared for it Peter you give us a lot to think about today that's for sure on a Monday morning thank you again for joining us we love having you look forward to having you back thank you all right if you think the economy is improving jobs are growing and the worst is over our next guest says sadly you are dead wrong joining us now the author of The Real Crash Peter Schiff Pete thanks for joining us um what do you mean the the worst isn't over we're not turning the corner things aren't getting better hardly we've actually made all the problems worse you know when I wrote my original book Crash actually made all the problems worse you know when I wrote my original book Crash proof how to profit from the coming economic collapse in that book I forast the bursting of the housing bubble uh the ensuing financial crisis this Great Recession but what I was really concerned about was not that I thought the crash was going to come from what the government would do to try to revive the economy that was The Real Crash it's still yet to come and it is the subject of this new book so you don't think anything has changed that allowed this crash to happen in in the fall of 2008 no the problems are much worse we're much more deeply indebted now than we were then all the problems have been exacerbated and what we have now is not a legitimate recovery all we've done is borrow additional money and spent it and we're counting the spending is economic growth when it's not the debt is growing much faster than the GDP and old ultimately we're going to have to pay this money back with interest and the only thing that's keeping us afloat right now is 0% interest rates and why are they 0% well because the it's counterintuitive that you know we keep telling people you know this that that debt clock right there is going to come back and buy us in the rear sometime but it hasn't done it yet there's no inflation well sure there is and it's the inflation that's helping keep interest rates so low because the FED is monetizing debt it's printing money and buying treasuries see the biggest problem with the US economy is that interest rates are too low interest rates are probably the most important price in a free market they're involved in one side of every transaction they need to be set by the market instead we're setting interest rates the way the Soviet Union used to set the price of bread and because they're too low we borrow too much we spend too much we don't save enough we don't produce enough you think we have to go bankrupt well we are bankrupt but you you want us to declare bankruptcy well what we need to do we have to let interest rates rise but the problem is when interest rates go up the US government can't afford to pay the interest let interest rates rise well the FED is keeping them down yeah but you're saying eliminate the FED then well no the FED just has to let interest rates go up the FED has to stop buying mods they they set a they set a rate and they set the rate at zero right now so you're say right but that's too low let the market set the rate H how can the rate be zero you you said on one hand let the FED set the rate but then on the other hand let the market say either one or the other right well the F the FED can still be there and not set rates it can let the market do it or the FED has to move rates higher because rates are much too too low nobody can make any money saving nobody's saving so we don't have any legitimate capital of financi investment we have to borrow it all from abroad but when we let interest rates go up the US government can't pay its debts many of our major banks are going to fail you think that $2 billion loss at JP Morgan is Big way to see how much JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are going to lose If the Fed lets interest rates go to where they need to go the name of the book is The Real Crash Peter shiff is just getting started the book just came out uh and he predicted everything that's happened before and I hope you're wrong but you seem very confident that you're right now Peter thanks so much sure thank you Peter we have Bob Pani Rick Santelli is with us europacific capitals Peter Schiff is also with us today as is core States capital advisers Bill speropoulos Welcome All Around Bob Pani the energy level is high here at the big board today you know we can't even have a nice boring quiet close into a 3-day weekend we're standing here all of a sudden little after 2:00 word comes out uh D Jones that's Bania was getting a lot more money than people anticipated 2324 billion bottom line is uh Market drop we lost several dozen points on that so this is the problem guys we are just hostages to headlines all of the time and anytime you think we're stabilizing and it's been a pretty good week the S&P is up 1 a 12% or so uh you get little headlines and you drop you a little bit more a little stabilization and Peter Schiff this is exactly what the markets have been focusing on for a while now it's all about Europe right now isn't it Peter shiff oh I I'm sorry yeah I was say your name for you in my mind it's not all about Europe I think in some people's minds it is but you know I think Europe is is really foreshadowing a bigger problem here in the United States but you know I think there's still some short-term downside risk in the market but I think the central banks unfortunately are not going to allow a substantial collapse in in stock prices I I think they're going to come in with more money Printing and ultimately you're going to see a reversal and nominal stock prices will rise uh but but it's not going to be good Economic Policy it's not going to be good for the economy that's exactly what we don't need and Bill yeah let's talk about that though I mean Peter what is your sort of expectation in terms of how this plays out here a lot of debate on whether or not we'll have a disorderly or orderly exit of Greece from the Euro or do you expect perhaps the Greece stays in the euro you know I don't even know I mean it there several different ways it could play out long term I think the worst thing that can happen for the Euro zone is for Greece to stay there and the and you to have this moral hazard where uh everybody is basically subsidizing everybody else's propac the only way that it makes sense for Greece to stay in that Euro zone is if they can force Greece to to undergo more austerity uh but I think that if if those are the choices the Euro Zone will be better off if Greece left and I think there's more of a long-term threat for Greece remaining in the Euro than leaving I think that that that is overblown but I don't know the politics are very strong I mean there's a lot of incentives for politicians in Europe to do what's wrong in the long run in order to appease the voters in the short run that's exactly what we're doing here I mean there's a powerful Temptation for politicians uh to to avoid swallowing the bitter tasting medicine that is necessary to to correct the let me let me Bob here Bob you trying to say something there well the people keep I'm picking up on Peter's them people keep talking about the mood on the streets of Athens Peter what about the mood on the streets of Berlin how how much longer are the Germans going to be willing to write the checks because no matter what scenario I see here the Germans have got to write a big check yeah bill for you you got they're burning these these Merkel dolls in effigy in Greece that they should be doing it in in in in Berlin I mean they never should have signed on to this deal to have to pick up the tab for the irresponsible governments in Greece and other parts of Europe they can't do it no more than people in some in in some states people in Texas don't want to have to pay for the for the deficits in California but who knows that might happen wonder if next week the focus returns to the US Rick santal you've got some fed speak coming out next week you got the GDP you've got uh unemployment numbers what are you saying ahead of all that well fed speak they're going to be nervous about Europe and hold about the notion of quantitative easing but it's a political Hot Potato so I moov that right off it's about two unemployment data points ADP on Thursday instead of Wednesday BLS on Friday and our second look of first quarter GDP on Thursday if you were disappointed with 2.2 looks like we're going to end up with 1.8 or 1.9 uh you look at the Chinese stock market you can see the cross trade flows out of Europe are impacting that as well as weak loan demand I'll tell you Maria I I just can't be optimistic even if we are the cleanest dirty shirt it's still not that clean no well be that as I don't think we're the cleanest one I think we're dirtier people just haven't figured it out yet you know when people say that the problems in Europe are hurting us they're actually helping us because people are so worried about Europe they're buying dollars and they're buying Treasures yeah let's bring bill in here go ahead Bill what we you have to look forward and I think that U the gloomer and the babble and all the negative stuff has been center stage for long time we've had just about a one-third correction for off of the October lows I think the news gets better going forward there's change Coming to America there's a lot of bullish things the Mambi pambi politicians globally are going to get sent home and talk to this Greek okay eight out of 10 Greeks don't want to leave the Euro because they know the politicians get a free ride and the quality of life gets a whole lot worse well if they don't want to leave the Euro Bill why did they vote the way they did on the last election it's a great why do people vote the way they do what not everybody goes out out and vote I mean it's pretty clear that the elections in Greece right now the Greeks the elections in Greece right now are a a uh you know a proxy on whether they want to stay in the Euro or not the whether they wanted the bailout money want something for nothing that's what all voters want vo for nothing all vo 7 75 look let's 75% of the people who were pulled this week said they would like to stay in the Euro that's what the people are saying the problem man I think what you're saying is that yes they they would like to the idea of saying in the Euro sounds good but they don't necessarily want to take the cuts and the austerity that come along with it but but you know the irony of they The Zone and they get the drma they're going to have even bigger Cuts because the drma is going to collapse and real wages in Greece are going to fall a lot more if they leave the Euro than if they stay there and and swallow the austerity all right we'll leave it there thanks everybody we appreciate your time tonight and have a nice weekend we'll see you soon
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