저자: 미상 · 외국인
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TQQQ의 엘리엇 파동 카운트를 분석한 영상. 결론: 현재 가격은 5파동 상승 구조가 완성되었거나 5파의 1파만 나온 상태이며, 단기 조정(ABC 하락, B파 이후 C파) 가능성이 높아 지금은 추격 매수보다 대기가 낫다고 봄. 주요 근거: 3시간봉·2시간봉에서 1-2-3-4-5 구조와 확장 플랫(expanded flat) 패턴이 관찰되며, 오실레이터 다이버전스가 있어 완성 가능성을 제시. 두 가지 시나리오 중 5파가 완성되었다는 쪽에 더 무게를 둠. 매매 전략: 조정이 나와 50% 되돌림 부근(약 1.6~1.8 구간 근처, 원문 기준 대략 50% 및 618 수준)에서 3파 상승 구조가 유지되면 매수 기회로 봄. 알고리즘 목표가(스윙 고저 기준) 도달 여부를 체크하고, 해당 가격에 알림을 설정해 두라고 권함. 장기 맥락: 2009년 저점 이후 장기 강세장 구조가 5파의 5파로 이어진다고 보며, 최종 단계에서 종목 변동성 확대와 엔딩 다이어고널 가능성을 언급. 지정학 리스크, 무역전쟁, 탄핵 논의 등 변동성 요인을 거론함. 리스크: 대칭성 판단에 따라 카운트가 무효화될 수 있으며, 상단 돌파 시 기존 카운트 재검토 필요. 파동 해석은 사후 확인 전까지 확정 불가라고 명시.
다듬은 글
alright hey there devils 23rd we're kind of middle of the day here now Thursdays we do traditional assets on Thursdays so we pulled the members we let let members pick often we'll let members pick what we're gonna look at and per that polling I've got two two assets we're gonna look at today we're gonna start with the tea QQQ this is the proShares ultra pro QQQ trades on the Nasdaq I've got a three hour here now we've looked at this before so there's a little bit of review here for any of you that haven't haven't been through this count and it's getting a little tricky here we'll see we'll see where we're gonna end up here so just just to do a quick review here let me go back I've got to go all the way back to the three day so let's look here now so I've got what will make this yeah I think easier to get the count on this is to go into log scale what we were we get the compression up above here so it just allows us to see the wave count a little more easily here so I do have this as a 1 2 3 4 is in and when the process excuse me of putting in the fifth you know all the subdivision is there and again like we as I said we'd been we've been through this before so coming off of here 2010 lows working our way up but it's pretty clear a so it's pretty clear that we've got a 1 2 here's the big 3 we've got an ABC a little bit of a double top here liquid ABC truncated see we don't get the new low here but now we're pushing up or and we're in this 5th wave so go let's see if we can catch it in the 3 hour so let me let me reset this now I'm gonna take it out of log scale so as we get up here we don't need that separation as much so here was the 3 high that I was just showing you so it looks to me like we come a down ABC into the B we get an expanded flat here so we get a B down for the C that puts in our 4 and then from here now we've started this structure coming up here now mmm you know are we are we approaching a top well so you know better not to guess so we just work we work through the count and we can eliminate possibilities here so that's that's very much what we're doing here's just a process of elimination here so there's there's there's only a couple of possibilities here if if indeed this is our four hmm well we can certainly make a case for a clean impulsive structure up into this hi so first question is well is that the top yeah mr.
I'm not ready to go there yet certainly relative to the length of the third force excuse me so I might look at it this way from the length of the one relative to the four there's certainly the possibility here that all we've done is put in the one wave of the fifth now other possibilities that we have put in them we have put in the fifth I think that's less likely hang on one second hmm okay I'm back so I think that's less likely so if we think about what what's happened here so one possibility here is even if we go to the oscillator yeah we've got some divergence here so we've got a solid candidate here for a completed five wave structure so you defuse right so there's only two possibilities here either the fifth of the here in white either the fifth is in so we beefed so I've got them so much higher we came to see him either the fifth is in or we've just completed the one wave of the fifth which I'm more inclined to think here because of this good structure here and the symmetry that we would lose given the the shortness of the fifth wave so if we allow for that so let's let's break into this and see may get a little better look on the two hour okay so coming off to this low I can get a one two all right then I go one two three four up into a five here okay so the extension is in the fifth but you see the nice one two three four five just perfect subdivision up into the three so I go in green one two three now I wick off the one wave here we come down four let's see if I can open this up and you see a little better sorry a again a in expanded flat right so interesting that we see that and that's often something that you will see if you see it once it's kind of giving a personality tell so we see it here then we see it yet again here question could we possibly see it again could that could that trend continue I I think it's fairly solid here given how clean that is into this third that we've gone a into an expanded B wave here and we come down 1 2 3 4 5 so it gives us a good candidate here for our fourth so I recall this was technical so from the from the two low here up to well three to two ways to look at it right so with our Elliott hats on well we're coming here so remember algo does not care does not care about an expanded B wave it's just working from swing low to swing high well we come here now we're a little shy of the 50 possibly a front run hard to say but look what we do right so from this pivot we're algo target to the tick so again that look at the reaction that that tells you that that's Al Gore participation there's no no question about what happened there so we can comfortably come to the conclusion here that we've completed a five-way structure and so what is it is that the fifth of the fifth of the fifth or we just putting in the fifth of the one well we have to wait and see here because right now we do have a fairly solid candidate to come down into an a into an ABC into a B all right so it's not uncommon for a B to go that high that's a bit on the extreme side that looks to me like we're past the eight eight seven oh let me just pop that on there so yeah it looks like yeah we're just a hair past the eight eight seven remember B way play so here we've seen it right as I've just shown you these these pushes so the B wave always a push to try and get to a new high you do see these Trump pardon me these expansions in the B wave here where it's essentially it's a bull trap so we get the little push up how do you know this is what's hard to tell but until after the fact but the fact that we don't have the good subdivision here is a bit of a tell here so coming down here this looks like a a B C into a steep B now we don't know for sure that we're done there and we don't know for sure yet that that this is what's playing a possibility here that you could be going one two I think less likely but we won't know until we see a little bit more data here I think it's more likely that what's happening here is we've completed given that perfect I'll go tap here that all we've done is completed at one wave so we've got a 5 wave structure that's complete so we just pull from low to high and you can see here where we're looking for our second wave so our 50 would be down here you can see here we're very close to the point of control so from our 4 looks to me like we've gone into this one wave here in yellow and we're in the process of putting in the ABC to come down here now again it's you can't be definitive about that just yet until because we need this to roll over so if we're gonna push up beyond this and then you really have to second-guess so what's problematic about that well that would mean that if this if this we're gonna play this way if we were gonna go into some sort of an a/b see down here for us yeah four come here for a second I just I don't think the symmetries is good here because we have this very short second wave relative the length of the one I don't think that's as likely even though you couldn't you could get a count to fit here and potentially we'd be going one two I think that is much less likely I think all of this more likely to come in over here so this this I would stay with this count until proven otherwise until it's it's invalidated at a point to where I can't I can't even go up to another expanded B way which is still you know still a possibility here you could look at this way we could have a B C going up here so we could get that kind of an expansion again let's put that go into blue here so we could have that again let's look at it so what was a now go go go doesn't care does not care about the elite count so all they've done is just to put a 50 and look here like so not not sorry not out of the realm of possibility that we're just setting up to do this yet again expanded B and then we go down for the C so we get that we get that bull trap here now I'm not saying that's what I necessarily think is happening I'm just recognizing that this has been a characteristic of this market so did it once here did it again here certainly would not be unreasonable that we'd do it again so we wait and see right so again what is I will always tell you we tried to fit the the Eliot count in around what the algo did last so where'd the algo do swing low swing high right well here's so we've got multiple targets up here that are unfulfilled right so we had this one and we showed we looked at well we went right here so you know question mark you did they use the 38 we got that first target well then now we've got another target up here but again you know I don't like it as much here I'm gonna like that a whole lot better down here that's the next by as far as I'm concerned should we get an offer down there so this is going to need to pivot down here we want to keep see it maintain this three wave structure so that would give us the potential here so we could hit this algo target I'll go fulfills we see the reaction the reaction drives us down that could set us up for the two and we don't we don't know that it's at the 50 but this is our sweet spot for a second between the fifty and the six one eight all right so that's where we're looking for it so that would give the couch so we'd have more time here in this in what would potentially be our second wave so the whole thing would just look better in terms of the symmetry relative to this playing as a one two all right so again can't can't ignore five wave structure so it's completing something is it the fifth or is it is it just the one wave here so my my analysis would suggest that we're just kind of in a hurry up and wait so you're too late to take this trade even as a swing trade you're too far gone from it so if we get the set up here that is definitely worth buying because you'd be looking for the third wave so you'd be trying to get into the third of the fifth alright here's our four of the larger degree so we'd be in one - there's your money-making wave can we get into that third and get up to some of these upper targets up here well that's gonna go into a true third excuse me we'd be looking for it up here I can pull this over here so every time it gets me alright so here would be our third here relative right so we know if we're gonna come down here that negative 100 we'll be very close to the one six one eight so if we can go one two that's a definite by looking for a move up to finish the third then if you start to put pull that whole thing back out let's go back out to a Daly and see how that would fit with that symmetry so let's see if we can go if I could do it in Daly so can you see all of that alright so here would be potentially our target for our let's see might come over here so if we got the third here before maybe we go up to six one eight so that would be fifth because I got to go higher degree there so that would be fifth of the fifth let's take that up one more all right there we go okay so that would be one two three four up for this very long this extended fifth right so we have one of the longest bull markets in history so coming off of the the odo nine lows it tees up pretty nicely one two three four extension in the fifth there we go fifth of the fifth of the fifth so setting up no reason to think that this won't continue it's been absolutely textbook impulsive structure all the way up now we could get a we could get an ending diagonal up here so that's as is often the case that's why you find ending diagonals at trends that are completing as you get more volatility here so that would certainly make sense given the or some of the political backdrops some of the geopolitical tensions trade Wars impeachment talk you know there's all there's all sorts of issues here so to anticipate more volatility up here seems like something that would be reasonable for us to anticipate so that's what I'm looking at that's what I see here I definitely would be a buyer here alright so that so all I believe so here's what I'll do I'll just alert the 50 so if it comes down there it's gonna get offered there I don't have to keep my eye on this chart all the time send me a text let me know all right that's what I see guys I think there's a good opportunity here but right now it's just hurry up and wait let this thing show its hand and get a little more data let the market reveal what it's up to here sure looks like there's another leg up alright guys that's it for now be back with one more
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