저자: TradeDevils채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 TQQQ가 5파 상승의 1파 또는 1-2파 구조에 있어 조정 후 매수 기회를 보고 있으며, 50~61.8% 되돌림 구간을 매수 관심 구간으로 제시한다. 파동 구조 분석: 로그 차트에서 현재 고점을 5파 완성으로 보며, 이를 근거로 약 50% 조정을 예상한다. 다만 아직 2파 확정으로 보기 어렵다고 본다. 4시간봉 분석: 2파 저점 이후 3파가 진행 중이며, 1-2파 구조가 유효하다고 판단한다. 3파가 1파보다 길지 않아도 되며, 현재는 3파 연장 가능성을 언급한다. 1파 이후 4파 조정 시 지지 구간이 존재한다고 본다. 매수 전략: 현재 가격에서 추격 매수는 리스크 대비 보상이 불리하다고 판단한다. 되돌림(50~61.8%, 약 2,888달러 부근 가격대 언급)에서 매수를 기다리는 것이 낫다고 본다. 손절은 황금비율 구간 하단에 두는 방식을 제시한다. 목표 및 시나리오: 상방 목표는 5파 완성까지 약 5~7배 수익 가능성을 언급하지만 확정적이지 않다고 강조한다. 상승 추세 채널 내에서는 매수 관점을 유지한다. S&P500 비교: S&P500은 TQQQ와 비교해 2파 구조 확인이 더 어렵다고 보며, 나스닥 대비 낙관도가 낮다. 비트코인 연계: 암호화폐 저점(18일)과 TQQQ 저점(19일)이 근접해 상관관계 가능성을 언급한다. 리스크: 상승 시 저항 구간에서의 함정(bull trap) 가능성과 조정 후 재상승 전 추가 하락 가능성을 경고한다. 탐욕을 경계하고 이익 실현을 권한다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 TQQQ에 대해 중기적으로 상승 편향이며, 되돌림 매수를 기본 전략으로 제시한다.
다듬은 글
all right guys how we doing today it's this Tuesday the 2nd of April so you guys you saw the poll results here first up is the T QQQ this is our Nasdaq ETF it's pretty interesting so now I know you can't see a lot in here now so I've just got a daily chart up here now you can see I've got all the history here I'm just wicking off the lowest low just just so I've got something to pull from now when it's like this when you've had this kind of parabolic move I there is very often it'll be more advantageous to try and get the separation of the wave structure by going into log scale so we get the the compression here and we get the expansion here so I think this gives you a better look at it so thus I think we can lean into the 1 2 3 4 now by this count I have us with the top in on the fifth and I'm standing by that and I'll show you why because if I take it out of log scale the depth of this retracement is not insignificant it's a bit of a tell in my view so we with the proposed completed 5 wave impulse finished up here we'd be anticipating a retrace of approximately 50% so if this is gonna be a 1/2 so if I just grabbed this low down here and get right right on it get right up to my high here well we've gone well past the 50 and we went we just booked you know a bit of a front run here on the 61 a possibly that's it's a bit heavy for a front run but here that's 130 bucks and we're 2888 so it's really not that much so this this may just be a front run on the 6th one 8 how are you say but we could certainly it's a contender for a 1 2 and it this is you know this is a bit of a proxy for what I think still is is a probable outcome for the for the S&P but we just we have not seen the depth of retracement here to support the idea that a2 is in now here I think we can we can lay lean into that so the the thought being that if that's that's the Lomo I guess it doesn't doesn't matter where I start this but we come back here so if this is a 1 this is a 2 and now we can potentially go off to to new highs up here so I guess if I'm gonna I'd have to go to primary here so we we'd have a very large one - that's just gone in and much higher prices to come hard to argue with it right technically we everything completes up here I can get every everything to complete to give me that 5 I've got almost to a 6-1 eight that's the ideal location for a - all right so it fits better here than it does in the SP certainly implies much higher prices one thing that that's of note that I think is interesting is that this low here it's within a day of them what may end up being at this point may end up being the low and all of crypto are so Bitcoin bottom down the 18th this looks like it's bottoming around the 19th so I'm very very interesting how that's perhaps correlated so let me open this up now so let's go to a four hour and we'll take a look here at what's what's happened now coming off of this so let me zoom in here a little bit it's opening up here so now I'm out of log scale to try and get the subdivision here a little bit better so I guess we can take this off here now so we we have our proposed to in down here I've got a I've got an ABC down here is not them so the the finish is a little it's a little tricky here I I think we can do it this way though I think we the the 5 into the a wave is solid the 3 into the be solid now we get kind of a wonky it's a diagonal I so here would be the 4 so you see this so here's the 4 overlapping the 1 oh there's the 1 so let me open this up even more so if we have this coming down from an from the a wave ABC into the B I think you have to go 1 2 so you get a little ABC ABC into the two and that's deeper to a b c just barely qualifies here to give you the three so you have to allow for this very skinny for here and then the final rip down for the five so it's it's it's a little unusual in terms of its structure so if we take the length of the one predicted from the two right so you look here and you go oh well three is not longer than one well remember it doesn't have to be the longest just can't be the shortest so then we look at the length of the three compared to the five so if this the proposed ABC of the third and the diagonal if that's my length of my third here's my four well here would be a hundred percent so we see that one is the longest third is is the second longest and the fifth would be the shortest so we have the extension in the one and that's a little bit of a struggle to get it to fit but i think i think that's the that's the only reasonable way to get there because you need to get the you need to get it to finish here and this is the only way I could get a three four five into this low and now what's come off of it so there's got to be a way to fit it and I think that works so so one two three four five gives us the ABC into the two low now coming off of this that's where it starts to look better for this to hold as the two so I think one two looks like three is in yet again I've got all the subdivision I need here I've got an impulse in my third so wicking it off this way so if I bring over this as the one one two one two yeah that's there one two three four five so checking just length as you would just to just to be sure if that's the one and that's the two so I bring it over here let's get right on that pivot okay so we just barely long enough now what's interesting here if the from this one - here's your high probability zone for for your third coming right up to the one six one eight but the subdivision I don't think works as well so I think we've got to go into the three here down for the four we hold the one so this at this degree we hold the one so we get our impulse here now it's possible this gets relabeled the gets put up here if this is gonna continue to go without a retracement that so I can eliminate that possibility but right now I think I've got a candidate so we can do it this way as well so if I look at the length of the proposed higher degree one then bring it over well we're through the two six one eight so we're definitely into an extension here in the third if that's correctly identified as the one two three four so let's check that so from the two through the proposed three well we've come to the 23 to the tick so if if we're gonna come up here we can just use that algo target so if we're gonna come up here and get that what that's good that's gonna give us here the proposed that this would be the one wave let me get this degree down let's go submenu went okay so that coming off of the two here one two three looks like the four could be in so if we're gonna get this this little push here to complete the five here so we've got a an impulse off the one so just teeing it up as you would any completed impulse so we'll just use this proposed hypothetical of course right I don't have that target but here's here's the next trade we're looking at right here so if this is gonna be the one then we need to come down here in some sort of corrective structure right so this potentially just just structural support but that that would make sense so we go off something like that so we'd be into the the completed one of the degree higher so coming off of this so we'd have one two and then going up three four and five right you got to put them somewhere so let's go to I'll go to green and let me go my minuet okay so we'd have one two so very bullish right so it's implying much higher prices so it leaves you kind of trying to reconcile well if the Nasdaq is gonna go or actually ESPYs got to go so we're the the the count in the SP I think is the Mort is the more difficult to envision this kind of roadmap because that this makes sense because we've got a two words in the SP it's a little it's a little tougher to get get comfortable with the idea that we put in a two so that remains to be seen but right now race you got a trade what you see not what you think so you despite the fact that I struggled to get my head around the idea that in the SP we could be just in the one wave of the fifth wave that is so insanely wash and say it that way that's so remarkably bullish that I'm struggling with that a little bit but here and then in them in the tea QQQ I mean just makes perfect sense right so the twos in off we are on the one two so here I'm much more comfortable being a buyer here at the fifty now an SP it's the same thing whether it's an a/b or one to the next opportunity here for a swing trader on a degree this high is gonna be waiting for the retracement now could you trade the four into the five well you're a little you're a little late you're a little late on that let's let me get this off here so you're late to the party here so if if that for now if we get a little more depth in this or so if this is gonna do something like this and then go maybe there's an opportunity then but this just looks to me like the three-four could well be in so even if I go down to an hourly ABS that great ABC but if we blow up that high and we start to get impulsive well then you just we're gonna have to resolve that that's that's what we've got so from the two through the four here it's a pretty skinny pretty skinny on the channel that we're in so as long as we stay in this it's hard to not tell not to like this as as a candidate here so if we're gonna get the subdivisions all this gonna play now we don't have this yet so there may now here you could you could be setting up for the one two so that's not terrible I'd be I think that's that may be an opportunity here so we would be waiting for some sort of a retrace to get into the - pardon me we'd be waiting for the one of the fifth to complete and trying to catch the the entry to get the third of the fifth of the one alright so if that makes sense that would put us up here completing the one so it where's the trade so York I wouldn't want to be a buyer here as we approach that that pivot all right so yeah there's gonna be evil one there'll be stop sitting there so that can that certainly can be fuel to kick this higher I just wouldn't want to buy right into that potential resistance all right some I like I want to wait till he retraces so I'd be looking for the retrace here to get long on this so the channel is a nice nice potential spot so if you got right because we don't know where this ends where this this this proposed one wave of the fifth but if I got something like that then I like it a lot right so that potentially your roadmap here so they're there is potentially a trade setting up but I think you're too late here for the buy off of the four and you're gonna have to just sit patiently and wait well man do you know have at it if you leave you're comfortable with that breakout but for me I'd be waiting for the retrace so I can get that so if we can get that little opportunity into into this fifty to the six one eight because remember this is proposed one wave of the fifth of the first so I as it's a I'm looking for the two I want to wait for that depth to get there so the fifty and six one eight is right where I'm looking to be a buyer and then there's nothing wrong with that alright so that if you're gonna get that push into it but remember it you know be realistic about how far that can go before we set something like that up right and then then you get the bigger one so I this is one to be watching certainly right if you're an ETF trade I'd be watching here that that's potentially all there there's no reason I'm it's relatively low risk right so there's no reason not to take that trade so yeah this could end up that we this could be a B there's gonna be a deeper C but you know the risk reward here is very friendly right it would be a modest amount of exposure to try and get that so you're looking five to one six to one if you get the whole ride up so very low risk potential entry here but you're gonna have to wait for the retrace right and this this could no telling where that goes right that could go much higher alright so but to chase up here the risk isn't worth the potential reward because at some point there's likely to be likely writing has to happen likely to be a little retrace to give you a better opportunity to get into that with lower risk here so if you buy it here all right so let's say you like a man I like the breakout stuff well if you buy it here where's your stop all right you can put it down below the golden zone right so what are you looking at maybe you get two-to-one risk reward or you're just gonna have to use an arbitrary amount so you're not like you're not using the market to define when you're wrong you're just using your your trading plan in terms of risk tolerance which right you got to use something but I would propose to you that's sure you could get away with it yeah you could get that push so we're gonna they're gonna be stopped sitting here that'll be some fuel that might get it going but you also you know the potential for a little little bull trap to set up the retrace I think you just I would approach with caution if you're thinking about being a buyer there it's just yeah it works sometimes but over time I think you're better to wait for the retrace right load then you can let the market dictate where you're wrong rather than just your wallet in terms of what you can afford let the market tell you where you're wrong and then if we get it this 3 4 5 well you've got a great there could be 6 to 1 7 to 1 if you're gonna get the whole move up here but again this is a potential area to be taking profit not thinking oh we're off we're never we're never gonna retrace it's just gonna keep going keep going keep going because this is not inevitable but probable at some point there'll be a retrace well it's just the nature of the way the markets move right so just you know if you catch that you know don't don't let greed get the better of you that's it for now I've got a couple more to do back to in a bit
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