저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오는 개인 투자자가 전술적 자산배분(단기 베팅)으로 시장을 이기려 하면 대부분 손실을 본다고 강조한다. 대신 자산군·국가·통화를 폭넓게 분산한 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오가 핵심이라고 말한다. 그는 자산군 전체는 장기적으로 현금을 상회할 것이라고 보며, 현금은 인플레이션으로 구매력이 연 2% 정도 줄어드는 경우가 많아 대체로 최악의 투자라고 주장한다. 금에 대해서는 포트폴리오의 5~10% 정도를 신중하게 보유하는 것이 합리적이라고 언급한다. 법정화폐 체제와 중앙은행 정책의 문제를 근거로 들며, 이를 현금과 다른 형태의 분산 수단으로 보라고 한다. 그는 과거 수익률에 쫓는 투자(비싼 자산을 사고 최근 부진한 자산을 파는 것)를 가장 큰 실수로 꼽는다. 또한 주식 시장 전체의 부는 크게 변하지 않고 자산 간에 이동만 한다고 설명한다. 개인 투자자는 시장을 정확히 예측해 타이밍을 잡기 어렵고, 자신의 판단이 틀릴 수 있다는 겸손함을 가져야 한다는 결론을 내린다.
다듬은 글
you guys have an extraordinary track record of winning yeah is it harder to compete in the markets today than it has been since you founded bridgewater no i don't think so really not the way we do it and the reason i'm saying not the way we do it is we don't take systematic biases i think for a lot of people they're systematically long everything you know and so we have a world in which there when the world gets bad it's bad for them in 2008 it was great for us i don't know we had nearly 10 return in 2008 so we have the opportunity to go either way we just may be wrong if we're wrong so so i'm so scared about being wrong that it has helped reduce my chances of being wrong because i'm so scared i won't take bets that i'm you know that i don't feel good about and we diversify our portfolio and that's how we we we got the track record i was just commenting in terms of i see um let's say so um you asked me about investors so i'm trying to go back what an investor should do well and what you think is appropriate yeah so here's what i'm trying you guys are doing well i want to just convey to investors i think in the average investor most everybody don't compete against uh pros like ourselves or other people don't making tactical asset allocation bets or moving around in the markets because you're probably going to lose it's difficult for us we put hundreds of better fees no no you have to have a develop a balanced portfolio in other words think about how you how you're going to have a balanced portfolio what you know is that asset classes as a whole over a period of time are going to outperform cash okay that's the most thing that you could be most comfortable with if they don't you have a depression the only times that hasn't happened but to to to know how to achieve a balanced portfolio and that's a whole other subject i don't know that you want to go through if you're talking about tactical bets in other words i can come on the show and i can say i think this is good but then what happens is if i come a month later and i then change my mind because something has happened then i'm going to leave some i'm going to mislead people so the tactical bets i don't think are going to be helpful i would say um that we're in an environment in which it's very important to have a well-diversified and that'll include assets like to some extent maybe a little bit of gold in your portfolio in other words what could i tell investors try to achieve balance in various ways that's a whole subject about how to do it and also um i i think that you know gold you know at five percent of your portfolio five or ten percent of your portfolio under the circumstances would be also a prudent thing to do prudence is the important thing to do the reason i'm also referring to that is we have a situation where a debt is money in other words we have a fiat monetary system too and so we're having problems as these central banks operate and so that it's a think of it as another form of cash and when cash now has zero or um zero percent interest rates or less think of it as one of those possibilities in terms of how do you how do you create diversification you know from a very early age the whole idea of being right is so rewarded whereas learning from mistakes doesn't have its place right you so a kid studies there oh you're smart smart smart you take the examination and okay you do badly and but life's not like that life is mostly a matter of making your mistakes and knowing how to evolve past those mistakes and learn an investor must understand that they probably will not be able to play the game well they probably will not be able to decide how to move in and out of things um in order to be successful in the markets is more difficult than um getting a gold medal in the olympics uh you wouldn't think about competing in the olympics but everybody thinks they can compete in the markets but there's more money competing it's like a zero-sum game and there's more money doing it and the worst thing you could do is be i think you can time all of these movements um if you could i guarantee you the game's a tough game to type we put hundreds of millions of dollars into the game every year and it's tough um so what the individual investor needs to do is know how to diversify well so the word that i would know how to diversify well and in a balanced way the greatest mistake of all investors is to think that what has done well lately is a better investment rather than more expensive and the greatest and what has done worse lately is the worst investment get me out of it rather than it's cheap and unless you know how to deal with the differences of those which most people don't they're going to be in trouble so understand that wealth total amount of wealth in the world essentially doesn't change very much okay and that one thing goes up another thing goes down and to know how to diversify to diversify it in asset classes to diversify it in countries to diversify it in currencies to know how to diversify that well so that you have wealth diversifications important do not think that cash is a safe investment when you most people think look i just want safety and those bonds aren't given give me an interest rate and so on so where do i get safe cash is a seductive investment because it doesn't have as much volatility but it taxes you and your buying power about two percent a year and so uh and that so cash is almost always the worst investment so you have to think about that you should think a little bit unconventionally do you have a little bit of gold do you have a little bit of um ass in case this monetary system breaks down and money's redefined do you have a little bit of that i can't get into all the different ways that one can diversify well i try to convey those things in my books or my or uh you know on post uh posts on linkedin particularly um but i but i would say diversify well be humble don't market time and be conscious of the dangers of cash you
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