저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 AI가 철도·인터넷급의 중요한 아이디어이지만, 역사적으로 위대한 아이디어일수록 버블이 크고 붕괴도 크다고 주장한다. 현재 AI는 역대 최대 투자 버블이며 지표(스페이스X 기업가치 등 극단적 과열)가 역사적 버블 정점과 일치한다고 본다. 붕괴는 향후 몇 달에서 몇 년 내 가능하다고 언급. 비트코인은 결국 0으로 갈 것이라고 단언하며 암호화폐를 불필요한 것으로 평가. 역사적으로 버블 붕괴 후 경제가 장기간 어려웠다고 설명.
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But, I'm an investor in SpaceX. Good luck. SpaceX is such a fabulous day story, and we can go into that. Crypto? No. Why? It's an unnecessary piece of nonsense that facilitates nothing except criminals moving money where they can't be seen. Do you think Bitcoin's going to go to zero? Yes, it will certainly go to zero.
So, how many years have you spent investing? 60 years. And what's the most amount of money you've ever managed of other people's money? 165 billion.
And one of the things you're famous for talking about is this idea of bubbles. Yes, and bubbles always occur around the very most important ideas. So, the railroads, everyone could see that it would change the world. The same with the internet, and everyone wanted to put their money in, and so they overinvested. But, this is the problem. Eventually, they bust. And if you look at the great bubbles breaking of the past, you find that it's followed by really tough times, a miserable period for the economy. And the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust.
And now, we're in the biggest investment bubble that arguably has ever occurred.
AI Are we on the verge of a collapse with AI over the coming years? The next few days, the next few weeks, the next few months, but certainly the next few years.
So, if you're not someone that has a huge amount of savings, what kind of strategy should they be adopting when an economy starts to get bad and there's a economic bubble collapse? So, I will go through everything, but you will not receive this advice from investment advisers because they'll lose a lot of business.
And would you be thinking about the country you live in at this moment in time? Absolutely. Is there any countries you wouldn't live in? I think I have to refuse to answer this on the grounds that it might tend to incriminate me. Oh, okay. So, you're saying don't live in the United States. I've just moved here. Why not the United States? This is super interesting to me.
My team give me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe, and some of you have told us, according to this, that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly. So, favor to ask all of you, please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button. If you are a regular viewer of this show and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So, if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here, to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double-check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear. I stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of the Diary of a CEO and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show.
Jeremy Grantham, your firm managed up to 165 billion dollars at its peak, what you we call AUM, assets under management. So, you know a lot about money. You know a lot about investing. How do you sort of self-define your expertise because you traverse so many different subjects through your work? So, if I said to you, you know, how do you introduce yourself professionally? What is the answer? I can't think I ever do introduce myself professionally, but I think of myself as specializing in the longer-term horizon than most people and trying to look at a higher and higher level of abstraction. What is really going on here? And what are people missing?
I've discovered over decades that humans are incredibly short-term oriented. And they have an enormous predisposition to optimism. They're looking for optimistic news in everything. They're looking to avoid unpleasantness. The idea that you can have steady compound growth is ridiculous. One of my few heroes, Kenneth Boulding, an economist, he said the only people who think you can have compound growth on a finite planet are madmen and economists. Which is so accurate. Economists simply believe you can have growth always. And everything comes down to just price.
One of the things you're famous for talking about is this idea of bubbles. And we're living in a moment where everybody's talking about the subject of artificial intelligence. And everyone's getting very excited by it. Some people are getting very pessimistic about the impact it'll have on society. I wanted to start there because it's a area where there is rife optimism on one side of things. Um but there's also a lot of money plowing into the market, which is I guess in your view making things prone to collapse. What's your view on artificial intelligence? Well, you said you're good at understanding what people are missing. What is it that people are missing? Well, first of all, let me say I think artificial intelligence is right up there with the railroads as one of the defining great ideas of the last couple hundred years. It's going to change everything. And that is critical. If you mean to have a bubble, people think that a bubble is mainly because it's a scam and nothing could be further from the truth.
The great bubbles always occur around the very most important ideas. So, the railroads, everyone could see that it would change the world. And everyone wanted to put their money in. And everybody put their money in. They over invested. And even though the railroads were spectacularly powerful idea, the railroads collapsed, their stocks and everybody lost a ton of dough. The same with the internet. And then out of the wreckage, the railroads changed the world and the internet changed the world. What we have to remember is that in '99, Amazon went up six or seven times. In the crash, in the tech bubble, it went down 92%. As I like to say, check it. It's such a remarkably large number. And then out of the wreckage, it inherited the retail world. And that's how it works. The greater the idea, the more obvious the idea, the more money goes in and the bigger the bubble and the bigger the bust.
Are we on the verge of a collapse with AI? When I say verge, I mean over the coming years. If you look at the data, it would be compatible with history for the peak to be very soon. Everything is in line. This is I think the biggest investment bubble in American history. The indicators of pure crazy euphoria like SpaceX are all over the place. SpaceX defines as its addressable market a quarter of the global GDP. You know, it talks about endless opportunities mining asteroids. It will be in 50 years people in 100 years people will look back and tell stories about SpaceX and its prospectus like they tell stories about the South Sea bubble. You know, an enterprise of such enormous value, but it cannot at this time be revealed.
I want to keep on this train, but for the viewers that don't know your experience, we should probably pause and just tell them your experience because that's the reference point, but also gives you credibility and authority to speak to this. What have you done with your life? Well, I got into the investment business in 1968. There were very few serious people in the investment business. There were no mathematical models. There were the kind of relatively failed sons of rich people who would work for J.P. Morgan. And then over the next 10 years, it began to get a little more serious. T. Rowe Price introduced the idea of growth stocks. A few of us introduced the idea of value stocks. And a few years later, at my first firm, Batterymarch & Fee, really introduced the idea of small cap. It didn't exist before that. And for people that don't know, a small cap is investing in smaller companies. Yes. And a value stock is something that looks cheap.
Did you invent the index fund? There are two or three others separately. I don't think we knew of each other. How many years have you spent investing? About 60. 60. And what's the most amount of money you've ever managed for other people in a calendar year? Yes, 165 billion.
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