The Crash That Will Change A Generation | Jeremy Grantham

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결론: 그랜섬은 2009년 이후 장기 강세장이 과열된 거품 단계에 진입했으며, 거품 붕괴는 시간문제라고 주장한다. 주가 흐름과 거품 진단: 8월 중순 이후 S&P500은 7% 넘게 하락했으나 이는 거품 붕괴 전 흔한 약세장 랠리 패턴이라고 봤다. 과거 거품으로 남해 거품, 1929년, 2000년을 예로 들었다. 거품 붕괴 시 하락 폭: 1929년 급락 사례처럼 50% 하락은 큰 하락이며, 그 수준까지 떨어지는 것을 막기 어렵다고 언급했다. 주식·채권·주택의 과대평가 조합: 과대평가된 주식, 채권, 주택이 위험한 조합을 이루고 있으며, 연준의 정책이 현재 강세장을 지탱해 왔다고 평가했다. 연준 평가: 연준은 인플레이션 대응에서 늦을 것이며 실수가 잦아 기록이 나쁘다고 비판했다. 캘리포니아 주의 인플레이션 구제금 지급도 비판받았다. 유동성과 시장 구조: 소수 대형주에 자금이 쏠려 다른 종목 밸류에이션은 상대적으로 낮고, 통화정책은 보수적이어서 유동성이 점점 타이트해지고 있다고 진단했다. 거래량: 2022년 하락장에서 거래량이 낮았고 세계 기업 간 거래량 불일치가 있었다고 지적했다. 투자 전략: 한 종목에 몰빵하지 말고 분산투자할 것, 평균회귀 전략으로 비합리적으로 저평가된 종목을 찾을 것을 권했다. 인적자본(교육·전문성·건강) 확충도 강조했다. 출연자 전망: 단기 하락 가능성이 크고 더 큰 위기로 번질 수 있다고 봤으나 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 제시하지 않았다. 장기 강세장의 종말 가능성을 말했다.

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01. most of the grape bubbles the super bubbles go below trend it will be hard to prevent the market from declining it's been a rough year so far for the stock market and indeed the past few months have been especially shaky after a brief bear Market rally it is quite unfortunate that the S P 500 has fallen more than seven percent since mid-august as lots of investors and financial experts keep saying there is a high chance of being in a bubble it happened before and there's every possibility that that one coming would be worse than the previous the great investor Jeremy Grantham has a lot to say about the current economic situation especially when inflation is taking a toll on the economy are we getting closer to what we can call the bigger crash what could come from it with everything from groceries to gas seeing a ridiculous increase in price Grantham also feels a crash that will change the generation and it's coming that's why we're here in this video we'll be talking about Jeremy grantham's words and the main purpose of his words do we see ourselves in a recession already join us as we talk more about it watch this video to the very end and get ready for inspiration it only declined 50 percent 50 is a hell of a big decline but it was only enough to get it back then to Trent it will be hard to prevent the market from declining to that level over the past year the stock market has managed to weather the profound social and economic impacts of a global pandemic not only that but it's also seemingly Shrugged them off entirely the disconnection between the real economy and Capital Market Behavior has been a major point to discuss there are also unprecedented efforts of the Federal Reserve to prop up asset valuations at all costs not a bad idea though it isn't too good that the cost of these interventions may prove even higher according to Jeremy Grantham the co-founder of Boston asset manager GMO known for calling market bubbles said in a note that the surge in U.S equities from mid-june to Mid August fits the pattern for Bear Market rallies common after an initial sharp decline this will keep happening before the economy truly begins to deteriorate Grantham sees more trouble ahead because the dangerous mix of overvalued stocks bonds and housing Grantham said that the fed's actions have helped preserve the current bull market this bull started more than a decade ago in the aftermath of the great financial crisis far beyond its natural end it's just a matter of time before the bull will eventually bubble he said the long long bull market since 2009 is finally matured into a fully fledged epic bubble featuring extreme overvaluation explosive price increases frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor Behavior I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history right along with the south sea bubble 1929 and 2000 these gray bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost and where investors truly prove their medal for positioning a portfolio to avoid the worst pain of a major bubble breaking is likely the most difficult adult part every career incentive in the industry in every fault of the individual human psychology will work towards sucking investors in but this bubble will burst in due time no matter how hard the FED tries to support it with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios these words Center on the fact that we're simply in the early stages of a much bigger problem and to further explain we have seen unfavorable low trading volumes during the 2022 downturn thus far if you're the type that compares the trading volumes of different world companies you will realize there have been inconsistencies so as a world-renowned investor grantham's remarks are sufficient to change Market expectations this can serve as a reflection of what is going to happen and it's more like a reflection of what is on the verge of becoming an unavoidable reality there is a big chance that stock price could continue falling and maybe headed toward a more embarrassing crash well we can categorically state that the stock market in the United States is at an all-time high but the truth is that there are insufficient current funds outside the stock market it is obvious that many U.S stock funds are pulled into the portfolios of just a few leading companies given this the valuations of other companies are comparatively at a deficient level to figure this out another way well financing funds have become much more complex and challenging in fact the federal reserve's monetary policy now appears to be conservative which can only mean that the situation regarding liquidity is becoming increasingly tight if you're observant you'll realize that the prices of goods and retail stores have risen in the past six months and this is surely an obvious indication now let's say that there happens to be a more terrible financial crisis in the U.S especially before the next stage of the economic recovery a lot of countries will also fall victim we know the market has boomed over the last year and a half but despite different arguments and situations going around in recent times the stock price is a sign of a massive market bubble which might crash significantly if this happens it will cause a horrific crisis considering the suffering inflicted on the people of America and numerous countries even if you go into the real estate market currently you may still experience an even bigger bubble all these happenings and signals suggest that something more terrible is still bound to manifest although inflation wants to be stopped by the FED sadly everyone isn't on the same page with the FED everything isn't going just right but no matter what it's best to get your investment strategies right fighting the FED won't make anything better this act alone even made California decide to offer an inflation relief payment to it citizens but people went against this opinion because they believed it to be a ridiculous offer as giving the so-called free money won't make anything better but will worsen inflation world-renowned investors ridiculed the state's Behavior it doesn't just work like that Grantham said I expect the FED to go behind the curve to be deep into optimism it doesn't really have a clue about market bubbles and the Damage they do when they break if I've been asked to bet would the FED get inflation wrong when inflation came along at any time I would have said of course they'll miss it they'll be late their responses will be pretty ill-judged the fed's record is terrible does this mean the vast potential of the human race is lost imagine all of the crime plagues diseases and even widespread environmental destruction that is taking place we can only be careful and look on how to save the situation Grantham also claimed that it's an wise decision to put all your treasure in one boat he said it is best not to put all the capital into one investment as several different Investments give a portfolio resilience and the ability to withstand stocks clearly the more Investments you have and the more different they are the more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you this is why he has investment strategies that always help him even when there is a market crisis grantham's investment strategy is built on the idea of mean reversion he makes his investment choices by looking for irrationally priced stocks as the market continues to fall it's extremely important to increase one's human capital ideally it has a lot to do with your education Financial knowledge professional expertise and even your health no matter how this crash comes things can still work out if you have a great plan having great strategies skills will also be an addition and a benefit when these things are considered there is a high chance of having an absolute gain even when there is inflation and these strategies will help increase one's Financial opportunities well that's all for today guys and we hope you did enjoy this video if you're optimistic about the world economy be sure to subscribe to this Channel and give this video a like thanks for watching and we'll see you in the next one