저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
Cathie Wood은 혁신 기술 기업들이 향후 5년 내 큰 성장을 보일 것이라고 주장하며, ARK의 투자 시계는 5년이라고 설명한다. 테슬라에 대해서는 배터리 기술, 자율주행용 AI, 데이터 수집, OTA 소프트웨어 업데이트에서 경쟁사보다 약 3년 앞서 있다고 평가하며, 기존 자동차 업체들의 전기차 전환을 긍정적으로 본다. 전기차 판매는 2021년 480만 대에서 2026년 4,000만 대로 성장할 것으로 전망한다. 다만 이를 위해서는 기존 완성차 업체들이 규모를 키워야 한다고 말한다. 혁신 플랫폼(DNA 시퀀싱, 로보틱스, 에너지 저장, AI, 블록체인)의 시장 규모는 현재 약 10조 달러에서 2030년 약 210조 달러로 확대될 것으로 본다. 2026년 테슬라의 EV 기업가치 대비 EBITDA 기대 배수는 14배로, 현재 FANG 대비 낮다고 설명하며 성장 가정에 따른 수익률 기대치를 제시한다. 다만 자율주행이 본격화되더라도 해당 배수가 그대로 유지될 것으로 보지는 않는다. 최근 1년간 ARK 상품이 약 50% 하락했으나 5년간 250% 상승했다고 언급하며, ARK를 전체 주식 배분의 5~15% 위젯으로 편입하면 위험 대비 수익이 개선된다는 연구를 소개한다. 반도체·AI·블록체인 등 혁신 기술 전반에 대해 지수 성장이 가능하다는 입장이며, 기술주 밸류에이션 조정 가능성은 열어 두고 있다.
다듬은 글
Four barriers to entry that. We have always focused on Battery Technology. They are about three years ahead of everyone else. Artificial intelligence no one's close they are autonomous. Data collection for autonomous. No one. They're not even trying. It seems in some ways to collect the data Nationwide and software is a service.
So over the air software updates. I see your towards late 2020, this flood of cash coming in. Was okay. These are performance chase. This is going to be hot money. These people are going to be scared off at the first downturn. We've seen downturn and I don't know. It looks pretty flat ish. It's not this exodus of money right now.
Have I got that right from the get go? We have always said our investment time horizon is five years and Truly disruptive innovation in the public equity markets is valued Today at roughly $10 trillion it if we are, correct. In terms of our five Innovation platforms, DNA sequencing, Robotics, Energy Storage, Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain Technology And the 14 Technologies underlying or involved in those platforms.
Our analysis suggests that that $10 trillion will scale. $210 trillion by 2030. We ask you about a couple of Holdings. Tesla. It seems to be surprising on its production and things like that. But now we're coming up on the launch of this, electric pickup truck From Ford and all this new coming competition Legacy car makers, Anything that Tesla fares as that new competition arrived, is it that You think that it has a head start by this point that is Insurmountable Or what do you do?
Well the four barriers to entry that we have always focused on Battery Technology. They are about three years. Ahead than everyone else. Artificial intelligence. No one's close they are autonomous, data collection for autonomous. No one. They're not even trying. It seems in some ways to collect the data Nationwide and software is a Service.
So over the air software updates, we hear that GM and others are close To delivering on that, but the others and the other companies will Have to use their brand. Now. I've been saying for some time that Many value stocks are in a bubble and in the case of the traditional Automakers. I want them to win.
We want them to go electric. This week Think electric vehicle sales are going to go for 4.8 Million last year To 40 million in 2026. But the only way we get there in that forecast, is if the traditional Auto manufacturers and scale. What makes Cathie Wood so controversial. I look at you and I say well, you know what you see is what you get?
You get this Rocket Fuel portfolio. Yeah, it's down by half over the past year, but you're up 250% Over the past five years and either that's for you or it's not either You want a little bit of that in your portfolio. You do. I hear from people these very sort of emotional opinions, passionate Opinions.
It's like this lightning rod. I think that Ark is disrupting the financial services. Industry, particularly the asset management. Part of our industry, we are completely transparent we give our research away. We have a five-year investment time horizon when most of the financial World as a quarterly or one year time horizon.
And we are not using benchmarks as our guide because benchmarks are Backwards looking and You know, I think we've created a brand out there and attracted a Following of people who trust us. So I think radical transparency is not the DNA of the traditional Financial world and it's uncomfortable. It is confusing.
Sometimes to hear people critics, say? No, there's no risk management. We have risk management throughout the firm. We Of minority owners, who are overseeing the risk. So, we are looking at Ark as a slice of an equity allocation and we Have a study on our site Arck Dash Invest, which shows that if you Allocate, I think with the study was 5 to 15% to Ark take that from Other equities, we will over a five year period of time.
Increase your Return per unit of risk. And that is why over the last five years we have outperformed when Most active managers have not. We have outperformed the Nasdaq and S&P and MSCI. So I agree with you that, you know, that, what I call tried and true, The core many people treating Ark as a satellite.
I think, many people are and as a hedge against the massive Disruption That we see from Innovation. During the next five to ten years. It's going to hit some of the stocks in traditional Venture. It's amazing how much engagement you're able to get. I think you and your colleagues together have like 1.7 million, Twitter followers.
And then you've got on the other side of the coin sort of Legacy Active where they don't, the PR people in the lawyers. Don't let them say anything. And if they do, it's very by the book and it doesn't really get Anybody going. Nobody cares. I will say, though. I think it's good. It, I think it helps your brand.
But sometimes you'll say something and I'm like, why did she go that Far? For example, the 40% return. Sometimes you'll throw out a number like, y, set, the bar that high And maybe, you know, upset your compliance person. Like, I think people are, you know, with you I don't think it's don't you want to under promise and over deliver?
So, well, in the beginning we wanted people to just listen to our Story. So maybe that's Part Legacy, but our chief compliance officer spent four years at the SEC as they were evolving, guidelines for social media, and marketing. And I started the firm saying, okay, after 08-09, what did clients Want There was a loss of trust in the financial services industry.
So, transparency seem to be very important. So that was I invested much more in marketing at the very start of the Firm than most would. For this idea, in terms of the putting numbers out there, what we try And help people understand is the other side of what you said in terms Of our return expectations based on growth.
I mean, based on our research is, we're also people don't pick up on This is much. We're also saying these expectations are with a an assumption that are Multiples are going to compress dramatically, so I think many people are surprised to learn that Tesla's EV so Enterprise Value to keep EBITA expectation.
Our expectation in 2026 is 14 times. It's below a Fang today. Now, do we think it's really going to be there if autonomous takes off? No, we don't. But where you do see aggressive assumptions? And this has to do with exponential growth of revolving around Wright's law Moore's law relative. We have a high degree of confidence.
In the unit growth characteristics as these Technologies Go mass market. We're really trying to communicate that these Technologies cutting Across sectors are creating explosive opportunity.
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