저자: JoelGreenblatt—제목·설명기준출연자명시,이름기준추정 · 외국인
요약 보기
가치투자는 '가치를 파악하고 훨씬 싸게 사는 것'이며 저PBR·저PSR과는 무관하다. 성장과 가치는 분리된 개념이 아니다. 성장하는 사업에 투자하는 것이 곧 가치투자의 일부이며, 워런 버핏도 이를 강조했다. 좋은 사업을 싸게 사는 것이 이상적이다. 싼 주식이라도 사업의 질이 나쁘면 안전마진이 시간이 지나며 줄어들 수 있으므로 성장하는 우량 사업을 선호하게 되었다. 버핏처럼 자본이 커지면 투자 기회가 줄어든다. 자금이 적을수록 더 많은 소형 기회에 투자할 수 있다. 특수상황(청산, 자본재조정, 분사 등)에서 기회가 생기며, 이 분야는 대형 운용사가 커지면 소형 기회를 다루기 어려워져 새로운 참여자에게 여지가 남는다. 효율적 시장 가설과 인덱스 투자 권고는 대부분 사람에게는 맞을 수 있으나 가치평가 능력이 있다면 예외가 된다. 1996~2000 S&P500 급등, 2002~2007 상승, 2007~2009 하락, 2009년 이후 약 3배 상승 등 시장은 여전히 비이성적이다. S&P500 평균 내부에서도 인기 종목과 외면받는 종목 간 격차가 크다. 평균은 이를 가린다. 벤저민 그레이엄의 관점에서 시장가격은 적정가치 주위를 진동한다. 훈련된 가치평가 방법으로 저평가 종목을 사고 고평가 종목은 팔거나 공매도할 수 있다. 좋은 가치평가 작업은 대부분 2~3년 내 시장이 인식한다고 강조한다(개별 종목 약 90%). 시장을 이기지 못하는 이유는 비용이나 효율성 때문이 아니라 감정, 제도적·대리인 문제 등 여러 요인 때문이다. 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
My definition of value investing is figure out what it's worth, pay a lot less. It has nothing to do with low price book or low price sales. And so that's how a lot of people like Russell or Morning Star. Would classify value investors. And so they probably wouldn't classify me as a value investor or a growth investor.
They kind of don't know what to do with us. And you know was Buffett has said, you know growth and value are tied at the hip. I mean, part of what makes value is Is by investing in a business that can grow over time. So, there. They're not two different way. They're classified by, let's say Morningstar Russell.
Maybe there's much lower growth in value, much higher growth and growth, and they, they make it that way, but I'm looking for good businesses that are cheap, you know, Ben Graham said, figure out what it's worth. Pay a lot less leave a large margin of safety. Between those two big space between those two things.
Warren Buffett is best student. Made one little twist that made him one of the richest people in the world. Often. Simply said, if I can buy good business cheap, even better part of good is a business that can grow over time. And so, I slowly gravitated not not fast enough, you know, certainly my first decade of investing gravitated more towards the way.
That Warren Buffett invest he's looking for good and cheap businesses and growth is is part of some time. Showed that just buying. If you bought a cheap enough, you can make nice money why we move towards quality. Let's say, you find a stock that's worth $10. And selling the sixth. It's pretty cheap.
But if you're not controlling the business and it's not in a good business, your margin of safety May erode over time eating that $10 could turn to 8 if you're not really controlling those assets and what you're really looking for businesses, or what looks better to me, anyway, or businesses, where that $10 might be going to 11.
Or 12 increasing your margin of safety, so I might take a lower margin of safety, if I thought that was growing, but there's, there's more find things. Cheap Works. Cheap cologne works. I've nothing against it. It's just that you have to get out of it. So Buffett who runs a hundred billion dollars or some number like that.
It's not easy to go spend 5 billion and then go sell it to some other guy who's so when he was and he said as recently as Around the year 2000. He said, well, if you give me a million dollars, I can make 50% a year on that. There's plenty of opportunities, your opportunity set shrinks as the business has become larger.
If you can invest in anything, you know, if you don't have a lot of money, you can invest in thousands and thousands of businesses. Buffett is now looking at the top 300 businesses in size because the smaller ones aren't the won't move the needle. So there's a lot you can do in special situations, do it.
One thing a lot of my students ask me. You know, when it happened, it happens every year now, probably for the last five or six years. And, and the question they asked me at some point in the semester. Is that, you know, when you were younger because you're really old, they leave that part out, but you're really old and when you were younger things, were eating anyway.
Things were easier. There was less competition. There were less hedge funds, there were less computers. There were less smart, guys going into this business. I mean, when I got into it, I was telling Howard before Market had gone up in 13 years. By the time I got the real skin. So it wasn't a place that really was attracting.
So they said it used to be easier for you. But you know, it must be hard for, you know, hey stupidly wrote a book about this and there's a lot of people are doing this now not just that obviously. You know, it's harder for us, you know, you got the easy stuff. And so my response is this people who are very good, especially special situation.
I have two responses. One is people who are good at special situation investing really looking off the beaten path for liquidations are recapitalizations or spin-offs are any of those things? Many of them are liquidity constraints in a Warren Buffett started making a lot of money doing those things.
Well, he grew too big and so I asked, I tell them that listen know what happens to people who get very good at analyzing businesses. In this area, what happens to them, if they make a lot of money and they get too big to stay in this area. So there's always a new group of people who can come in and look at some of the smaller situations because the guys were really good at it.
Get too big to really take advantage of some of the smaller more obscure situations. So there's always Room for new people to come in that area and then on a larger scale, you know, because people still teach efficient markets and they'll say, Hey, you know, acting investing doesn't work and even more Buffett saying go buy some ETFs or indexes.
And what I'll say is that for most people, that's true because they don't know how to Value businesses, but I will give you a counter and this is what I tell my students, most of my students around. Twenty seven ish. So, I said, I tell them all. Let's go back to when you were roughly 10 years old, where you might start noticing some of this thing.
And let's go look at the most followed Market in the world and that state. And let's go look at the most followed stocks in the most valuable role in most followed Market in the world. And that would be the S&P 500 stocks. So, let's take a look at what happened. Take a look at the S&P. 500 from 1996 to 2000 dollars.
Thousands of 2002 head from 2002, to 2007, has doubled from 2007 to 2009 in half from 2009. Until today. It's basically tripled. That's my way of saying people are still crazy and that's really unfair thing to say because this S&P 500 is an average of 500 stocks. There's huge dispersion going on within that average between stocks that are in favor that people love emotionally and socks that people hate.
So it's really much. Worse than what? I just described. There's huge dichotomy between things people like and people don't things that are in favor out of favor. With in that, that is all this noise is going on within that average, that average is smoothing things. So if you believe what Ben Graham said is, you know, here's fair value.
And here's what the market prices are. It's like a wave around, fair value. And if you have a discipline way to Value companies, and by more than your fair share, when they're down here, sell some may be shorting. It wouldn't win and you're Discipline. I mean, I make two guarantees to my students first day of class.
First guarantee is this, if they do good valuation work, I guarantee them. The market will agree with me. I just don't tell them, when could be a couple weeks, could be two or three years, but I tell them, the market will be and that, and the corollary to that is this and it's very powerful. I tell them in, 90% of the cases for an individual stock, two or three years is enough time for the market to recognize the value.
They see if they've done good work. When you put together a group of companies that actually on average, is actually happening quite a bit faster. So, Both, those are very powerful just as good work, will be rewarded. So, I don't think the reason people don't beat the market is cost. The market is efficient, or even close to efficient or not emotional.
It's very emotional or that it can't be done. There's all kinds of institutional, and agency reasons, and tons of other reasons why they don't do it, but because prices are efficient, if you just pick up the paper, observe, what's going on? And listen, what I told my students since, when they were 10 years old, it's pretty clear that people are still crazy...
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