저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인이 2023년 위험회피 국면에서도 강세를 보였다며 장기적으로 금융·화폐 시스템의 핵심 자산이 될 것이라 주장하지만, 거시적으로는 통화량 감소와 장단기 금리 역전을 근거로 인플레이션보다 디플레이션 위험을 더 크게 본다. 비트코인 관련 주장 3월 지역은행 위기 때 비트코인이 약 19,000달러에서 30,000달러 부근까지 급등했다고 설명하며, 위험회피 시기에도 상승한 안전자산 성격을 강조한다. 비트코인은 상대방 리스크(카운터파티 리스크)가 없는 탈중앙·투명한 화폐 시스템이라고 주장한다. 정책·규제 관련 주장 이번 주 발표된 인공지능 행정명령은 과도한 규제이며 기존 대기업에 유리하고 혁신을 해친다고 평가한다. 암호화폐와 AI 규제 이슈는 2024년 대선 쟁점이 될 수 있으며 양당 모두 관심을 가질 것으로 본다. 통화정책·거시 관련 주장 미국 M2 통화량 증가율이 전년 대비 마이너스로 1930년대 이후 가장 큰 감소라고 지적하며 경기 둔화 요인으로 본다. 지역은행 지수가 3월 저점을 재방문하고 있어 연준 긴축이 과도하다는 경고로 해석한다. 연준의 피벗(금리 인하 전환) 가능성도 언급한다. 장단기 금리 역전(10년물-2년물)이 2022년 7월 이후 1년 넘게 지속되며 경기침체 신호로 본다. 현재 장기금리 4.5~5%에서의 100bp 역전은 과거 1980년대 15% 금리 시절의 100bp보다 통화정책이 훨씬 긴축적이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션보다 디플레이션이 실제 위험이라고 본다. 혁신 투자 관련 주장 로봇, 에너지 저장, 멀티오믹스 시퀀싱 등 5대 혁신 플랫폼을 강조한다. 금리 인상기에 투자자들이 혁신주와 장기 듀레이션 자산을 매도했다고 언급한다. 대상 자산 방향 예측 비트코인은 2024년 대선을 앞두고 중요성이 커질 것이라는 서술은 있으나 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음. 미국채금리는 디플레이션 관점에서 장기 금리 하락 가능성을 간접 시사하나 구체적 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
last note Bitcoin so here's its history most of its history and you can see we have been in effectively a bull market with higher lows since its Inception and here we are again we're on on the way up I think what happened this year is quite significant it happened that the Bitcoin moved up during a riskof very important riskof moment the Regional Bank crisis in March it went from 19,000 this is a long-term chart so what I'm telling you is an intraday it it hit a low during that Regional Bank crisis at 19,000 and shot up to 30,000 why was that flight to Quality as Larry thinkink would say flight to Quality as we would say flight to safety as we would say Bitcoin stands out as an unparalleled asset conveying a resounding message from Kathy Wood the CEO and founder of Arc invest in her recent update she delved into the intrinsic beauty of Bitcoin emphasizing that 2023 marked a pivotal year for the cryptocurrency during a crucial risk-off moment amid the regional banking crisis in March Bitcoin exhibited a remarkable surge escalating from $19,000 to $30,000 What attributes this surge to a flight to Quality a term echoed by Larry thinkink or as cathywood articulates it a flight to safety what distinguishes Bitcoin as a storage medium for wealth is its absence of counterparty risk a significant factor traditionally viewed as a risk-on asset that thrives in favorable market conditions with high liquidity Bitcoin has in 2023 demonstrated its ability to outperform even in risk-off periods regardless of Market sentiment Bitcoin appears poised to consistently outperform showcasing the inherent beauty of its resilience the video's conclusion promises further insights from Kathy Wood explaining why Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are poised to become significant issues in the 2024 presidential election it hit a load during that Regional Bank crisis at 19,000 and shot up to 30,000 why was that flight to Quality as Larry thinkink would say flight to Quality as we would say flight to safety as we would say because there is no counterparty risk here in this decentralized transparent monetary system unlike what happened to the Fiat monetary system in ' 0809 and I think more people are beginning to understand that this is not just a risk on asset when the markets are feeling really good Bitcoin tends to do very well but can you believe it's also a riskof vehicle and more and more investors including institutions are beginning to understand this so this is innovation at its best and it is one of the five major Innovation platforms around which we have centered our research so robotics energy storage and finally multiomic sequencing the other thing that happened actually this week was an executive order on artificial intelligence which we think can be described as serious overreach and certainly favors the incumbent and we think would really hurt Innovation so it is an executive order we do think that both Bitcoin or crypto or digital assets and artificial intelligence now could become part of the election year debate it seems like it both groups the Bitcoin and crypto digital asset community and the AI Community except for the maybe the largest players are both up in arms about this executive order if it becomes an election year issue we we believe that candidates will distinguish themselves with their points of view on these topics and what I found interesting in our brainstorm today is that both of these the crypto sdigital assets controversies Vis A this Administration and now the AI controversy both of them are bipartisan so they will get some attention and if there is a change in the administration of course that executive order will probably be no longer because again we think it's going to become an election year issue and many people look at what's going on now and say this is a recipe for inflation the way to get out of debt is to inflate inflated away we don't think that's going to be the case and we'll get into a few indicators in a moment with that support our view that actually the risk is not inflation moving forward it is deflation so now let's skip on to monetary policy now chairman poell this week during his comments after the board meeting I think he had an inkling that the employment reports this week were going to be weak I think he probably had a sense of initial claims they went up but also perhaps an early read on the employment report which today was very weak and one of the reasons it is so weak is this chart so this is money growth M2 growth on a year-over-year basis going back into the 60s early 60s and you can see we've never seen a decline in money like this in this period of time you have to go back to the 1930s which of course was the Great Depression to see a decline in money like this now this is the other side of what happened during covid so it's understandable to some extent but now we're soon going to be lapping one full year of negative money and so the course correction has taken place we believe if money doesn't pick up we will conclude is it's becoming a serious drag on the economy and deposits are leaving the system the regional Banks still are losing deposits that's part of the decline in money and that's that's not a good thing in fact the K Regional Bank index is revisiting its March lows when we were in a crisis around the regional Banks so the Regional Bank uh index is a warning that fed policy has just overdone it here we hope it doesn't break down the index and it is possible that some of the numbers coming out now are making the case for a Fed pivot so clear that the regional banks will not face as stiff a competition from money market funds and will be able to uh attract posits again so this is M2 still declining year-over-year and here is the yield curve now we've talked about the yield curve here many times here's the picture going back into the 70s this is the 10-year treasury yield minus the 2-year treasury yield and when it's below zero it means that short-term interest rates are higher than longterm term interest rates which is not normal as you can see from this chart and you can also see that typically when the yield curve inverts we are either in a recession or not far from a recession and we would say we've been in a rolling recession for the past year year and a half the yield curve inverted for the first time in July of 2022 so it has been more than a year and we think that it is a harbinger of much slower economic growth and a lower inflation than most people believe the other point we like to make about this chart is you know to see a yield curve going down to minus 1% or 100 basis points just like it did in the early 80s today is quite something because the base of rates is so much lower so to today we have the long bond yield in the 4 1/2 to 5% range back in the 80s that number was 15% and yet we have had the same degree of inversion here that tells us that monetary policy today is much more stringent than it was even in the early 80s when interest rates were at 15% because 100 basis points on 4 and a half to 5% is a lot more dramatic than 100 basis points or 1% on 15% interest rates so we think monetary policy is much tighter than many many understand and we do believe it we'll have a far-reaching ramifications over the next year or so and as we always say Innovation solves problems Innovation will transform the world and make it a better place and you know it's been such an interesting Journey during this interest rate increase all the fear investors running back to their benchmarks selling Innovation selling long duration assets so thank you once again and we will look forward to to presenting again next concluding today's Deep dive into the dynamic world of Bitcoin Guided by the insights of Arc invest Visionary Kathy Wood we've gained a profound understanding of how Bitcoin isn't merely rewriting the rules of Finance but is also proving its metal as a resilient asset in times of economic uncertainty throughout 2023 a year filled with surprises Bitcoin has emerged as a safe haven asset during turbulent times surpassing mere speculative expectations this goes beyond market dynamics it's about recognizing the intrinsic value and untapped potential of this groundbreaking technology as we progress into the future the conversation around cryptocurrency is destined to grow louder especially with the 2024 presidential election on the horizon the implications for policy regulation and the trajectory of digital assets are immense bitco coin 's role as a transformative force in the financial landscape is not only acknowledged but is becoming increasingly integral to discussions about the future of money and finance the resilience and performance of Bitcoin in 2023 are shaping its narrative as a key player in the broader economic landscape looking ahead the discourse surrounding cryptocurrency is poised to intensify reflecting the growing awareness of its transformative potential with the impending 2024 presidential election the implications for policy and regulation regarding digital assets will be Central to the discussion as the World navigates this evolving landscape bitcoin's resilience and its ability to function as a safe haven asset during economic uncertainties highlight its significance not just as a speculative investment but as a fundamental player in shaping the future of finance and the broader digital economy
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