저자: JeffreySmall · 외국인
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and all of this news we have Monday's close not too far off what a day it's been Jeffrey Small's with US president Arbor Financial um we woke up this morning and saw some heavy selling though noting that even overnight the Futures were down even more so you did see that they started to come back up off the lows what did you make of it this morning and what were your thoughts well honestly I want to thank president Trump for uh having the market take a little bit of a breath here and pause and give us some ability to buy some things that are selling off today that really should not be selling off at this time um but of course you know everyone's kind of suspect of the tariffs and what the E economic side of that's going to mean other than the comedic side that I mentioned about President Trump giving us a discount um so you know where we are today is you know the tariffs are in place uh we haven't seen very much retali retaliation other than Canada we got a suspension for a month on Mexico um but between China Mexico and uh and Canada that's about 1 5 trillion dollars of trade that we have about an average about 500 billion each with each with each country and So based on those tariffs the way they were written in the order that's about a 1.4% inflationary increase on products that we import as a collective across so it's not a huge hit Nicole but of course the market interpreted as the sky is falling very briefly but now the Market's recovering and it looks pretty good were you in fact buying this morning and saying oh this looks like a good opportunity no we were we were taking a pause actually to see what the Fallout was actually going to be first um you know we could end up further down by the end of the day um than we are right now and so you know we're going to take a pause for today and just just kind of take it all in yeah and look I mean they had a conversation right you have the president of Mexico who spoke with President Donald Trump and in fact they had a good you know quote a good conversation and now us paused the tariffs on Mexico for one month that brought the market back but volatility is here and volatility can bring opportunity I I'm sure you're watching seing for volatility throughout J like not just January but this whole 2025 right well that's correct and so you know the market is locked and lowed for volatility we have a lot of swings on a regular basis without much news at all and a lot of the to highflying stocks because we're really at the end of this bull cycle Market in theory even though the multiples across the board for the broader Market indicate the Market's got a lot a lot more room to catch up the question is will it and will that broadening occur under these current circumstances and so you know it's anybody's guess right now um but we like today Nicole is we really like things that have really strong fundamentals that we know are growing at at double digits um that's very important to own the perennial names today in this type of environment because even if things become very let's say economically stressed um then these companies will continue to do well and that's important so you want to recheck your portfolios now so you you're looking for strong fundamentals and um mag seven aside can can you name some names or some sectors that seem to be probably good for a portfolio um from besides the mag S I mean that's you're taking away my favorites right now Nicole I mean I've got four or five really good favorites um I like JP Morgan Morgan's got is is in a really good space right now they're doing very very well out of the banking group Financial Services Group um but other than that I really like the the Magnificent five at this stage of the cycle and those are the companies I'm referring to that will do well well even if the economy contracts flat lines the dollar Falls exports go you know look more competitive despite the tariffs um and so that's kind of where we are today but um which ones which ones are your favorites I know meta is in there right yeah meta has been my favorite for the last three years um and that's our largest holding here but I will tell you that we really like meta um they just blew out their best number at 48.4 billion last quarter up 21% year-over-year um net profit went up 49% year-over-year they're making $43 for every $100 they earn you know and they're reinvesting in the business but more importantly their chatbot just reached 700 million active users Nicole and so when you get that kind of inertia um that's a big deal and so plus they've got four billion monthly Global users now and so on all their platforms between Instagram Facebook WhatsApp messenger and threads and so I mean they're just a dynamic social media Powerhouse that needs to be part of of everyone's portfolio and and also alphabet Google you have in there as well I like Google and I like meta um I do like apple they had a really good report they kind of bucked the system here the other day with their report so they you know but I do like I do like apple I think those three stocks right now are part of the you know really undervalued from what their true financial worth is going to be um when compared to companies like Walmart or Costco which have a higher multiple and they're trading at about 20 to 25 30% higher in multiple value than those three and so which one would you rather own a grocery store margin or would you rather own something that makes 30 to $40 for every dollar they they have in sales I think that answer is obvious yeah and Nvidia I mean you know it it may seem obvious to some that this has been a great performer and I know it's fluctuated but for the AI play for the long-term Jensen Wong I don't know you're you're still an Nvidia fan right yeah I'm a really big Nvidia fan I'm a big Nidia fan of buying the dips I mean it you know hit 115 today I mean that's a great opportunity for folks to get in I think if you're trading Nvidia stock you're looking at the upside potential over an 18th to 18 to 24mth period because we kind of know what's going to happen this year we know the second six months of the year things are going to start ramping up as they can meet production for their chip Demand right now there's too much demand and not enough Supply and so the second half of the year they plan on making that up and we start to see revenues really take off next year more so than this year but they could surprise and so this is one you want to bank for the next 24 months understood big picture does this I know we have a jobs report on Friday but I think that if I really had only one question to ask would you say this will be a winning year on Wall Street for portfolios it's definitely going to be a winning year because of the trumpan effect and all things and the economic inurture they're going to create with tax reform and extending the tax cuts maybe lowering corporate taxes rebalancing the budget cost cutting um and getting a hold of having Fair trade instead of free trade that's imbalanced I think that's going to be a big boom this year for America yeah so you expect some things like out of Washington some of the policies to help overall and what about the jobs report this Friday are you looking forward to it what are you going to watch for well obviously we're hoping that it ticks up a tad you know we'd like to see the FED accelerate uh their projection for a rate decrease but we need the jobs number to obviously compensate in the sense that we're going to see unemployment go up and demand for jobs fall and so if that kind of stuff happens then we'll see the the FED will fall in line quicker even though they're delaying rate cuts for the time being but you know I kind of see the tariffs as almost a Fed action here Nicole because if it slows the economy down it'll slow inflation and purchasing down which will be ultimately good for the numbers and so I've always said from the time Trump was elected that he's going to try and kill the economy in the first year of his administration uh or at least make the economic numbers go south so he could force the feds hand to lower rates because if he doesn't productivity is just too strong Jeffrey small Arbor Financial great to speak with you thank you so much
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