저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2022년 증시 약세와 인플레이션 충격이 아직 끝나지 않았다는 진단. [거시 환경] 미국 연간 인플레이션율이 9.1%로 연준 목표 2%를 크게 웃돌며, 에너지(특히 휘발유 +11.2%)가 주요 원인으로 지목됨. 러시아의 우크라이나 침공과 이후 대응이 에너지 가격 급등을 불렀다고 설명. 연준의 금리 인상(0.75%p, 일부는 1%p 예상)은 인플레이션이 2%로 돌아올 때까지 계속될 전망. [마이클 버리 전망] 버리는 2022년 상반기 기준 조정 후 S&P500 -25~26%, 나스닥 -34~35%, 비트코인 -64~65%를 예상하며 '이제 절반 왔을 뿐'이라고 경고. 두 단계 하락 논리를 제시: ①멀티플 압축(투자자 신뢰 하락으로 PER이 35배에서 약 20배로 하락, 금리 상승으로 채권 매력 증가에 따른 자금 이탈), ②실적 압축(소비 위축·비용 증가·부채 부담으로 기업 이익 감소). [실적 근거] 가계 저축률은 2008년 수준으로 복귀했고, 신용카드 리볼빙 부채는 팬데믹 이전 수준을 상회. 아마존이 1분기 실적 부진의 예시로 언급됨. 애널리스트들은 실적 둔화가 2023년까지 지속된 뒤 2024년부터 회복될 것으로 전망(진행자는 애널리스트 전망 신뢰도는 낮게 봄). [투자 조언 및 리스크] 주기는 정상적인 현상이므로 장기적 관점 필요. 부채가 없거나 경기 영향이 적거나 가격 결정력이 있는 기업은 침체 중에도 실적이 오를 수 있음. 불황기에도 큰 부가 만들어질 수 있다는 메시지. [결론] 증시 하락은 아직 진행 중이며, 실적 압축 단계가 본격화되면 추가 하락 가능성이 있으나 개별 기업별 차별화가 중요하다는 진단.
다듬은 글
it's no secret that the stock market hasn't been a particularly pleasant place to be in 2022 the s p 500 is down about 20 percent the nasdaq has dropped by 27 and based on recent news reports it doesn't appear that things will improve anytime soon just last week we learned that the annual inflation rate in the united states has now reached 9.1 percent with a 1.3 percent month over month increase remember that the fed aims for a 2 annual inflation rate so we have about eight months worth of inflationary pressures only within 30 days and if you look at the numbers a large portion of that inflation is because of the current energy crisis caused by russia's invasion of ukraine also the world's subsequent handling of the situation energy was by far the worst performing category in june rising 7.5 month on month energy commodities are up 10.4 percent gasoline is up 11.2 percent and utility gas or piped in gas is up 8.2 percent so many significant increases and understandably the result of this accelerated inflation is a significant increase in interest rates the fed is ramping up its efforts right now economists anticipate another 0.75 increase in the federal funds rate with some predicting a full percentage point increase and unfortunately these interest rate hikes will continue until inflation returns to the federal reserve's target of two percent per year so there may be a considerable amount more to come however these rate hikes imply that economic conditions for both individuals and companies are becoming increasingly difficult as debt payments rise and life's necessities become increasingly expensive consumers have less expendable cash this means lower profits for businesses at a time when loan repayments and other costs are also soaring for these reasons many economists believe that america is on the verge of a severe recession michael bury the man the myth the legend saw all this coming despite predicting all of this at the start of last year he's recently stated that we're only halfway there in this video we'll look at why michael bury believes we're only halfway there he recently tweeted adjusted for inflation the s p 500 will be down 25 to 26 in the first half of 2022 and the nasdaq will be down 34 to 35 bitcoin is down between 64 and 65 percent that was compression on multiple levels next up is earnings compression so we're almost there and this is a pretty insane forecast because it means bury believes that the snp 500 will fall to around 2800 but it's also pretty alarming because we agree with his reasoning so what exactly is he on about in that tweet he mentions two factors that are linked to a stock's price dropping there is multiple compression and earnings compression first multiple compression which bury believes we've seen so far what exactly does this mean of course the most basic and common valuation metric is the price to income ratio which is the stock price divided by earnings per share if your company owns one dollar per share for a year and the stock price is 20 your p e ratio is 20.
however we can rewrite this equation as follows stock price equals earnings multiplied by the p e ratio or to put it in another way the earnings multiple is the multiple of earnings that investors are willing to pay for the stock the earnings multiple is heavily influenced by what investors believe the company will do in the future investors will give it a high earnings multiple because it has a lot of room for growth and will perform well in the future whereas issues with the company such as competitors in the market stealing market share will result in a much lower multiple it indicates investor confidence or what investors expect to happen in the future this formula can now be applied to a specific stock but it can also be applied to the market as a whole investors can be wildly optimistic at times giving the market a higher multiple then there are times when they are more pessimistic and give it a lower than average multiple this goes through cycles in which investors are overly optimistic then pessimistic as a side note you may be wondering and why was there such optimism in late 2008 that seems a bit strange well that's a special case where earnings were actually so incredibly low during the great recession the difference was prices were somewhat stabilized at the time because the fed had revealed a huge bailout plan however the market generally oscillates between optimism and pessimism at a multiple of 16 and as we approach 2023 that multiple is reverting to the mean in fact this data ends at the beginning of this year and because earnings have remained strong so far this year while the market has continued to fall this line is expected to fall further through 2022.
michael bury refers to this as multiple compression it's really just a fancy way of saying that investor confidence is declining last year investors were prepared to pay up to 35 times the s p 500's earnings to own it according to current estimates that multiple has dropped to around 20. as a result of optimism quickly giving way to pessimism the market is dropping that is the main point interest rates have an impact on it as well when interest rates rise new bonds become more appealing and the huge money in the market begins to flow out of the stock market and back into the bond market dragging the stock market down this is the polar opposite of what we've seen over the last few years you are aware that interest rates have been extremely low which causes the stock market to become artificially high because bond returns are practically zero as a result the big money is looking to invest elsewhere but to cut a long story short investor confidence is dwindling and rates are rising that's what berry was saying in the first half of his tweet but as he mentioned he believes we're only halfway there and he believes it's earnings compression that will take over as a result instead of unconfident investors driving down prices corporations in corporate america will exacerbate the situation america is making less money this is related to what we were saying earlier right now interest rates are rising due to the crushingly high levels of inflation in reality however this means that consumers have less money to spare burrie also stated that people's savings are covering a smaller and smaller portion of america's gdp at a time when the gdp is declining in another tweet bury talked about how u.s personal savings filtered to 2013 levels he said that the savings rate has returned to 2008 levels while revolving debt on credit cards increased at an unprecedented rate to pre-covered levels so what he's saying is that unfortunately all this inflation and interest rate increases are leaving consumers with very little in their pockets less spending equals less profits for businesses combine that with higher costs and rising debt costs you've got a situation where corporate earnings are in trouble amazon was one of the companies that struggled in q1 and was specifically mentioned by burri we can see that amazon's earnings were doing well but they crashed and burned in the first quarter consumers are unwilling to spend as much and while we don't put much stock in analyst forecasts analysts expect the decline to last through 2023 before beginning to recover in 2024 so the numbers reveal the macroeconomics operational costs have been increasing at a faster than normal rate since 2021.
in addition the cash flow from operations has decreased that's the second part of bury's tweet now that we're seeing significant interest rate hikes and the average consumer is having difficulties bury believes that corporate profits will begin to fall from here remember our equation that price equals earnings multiplied by a multiple or investor sentiment so far earnings have remained relatively strong but sentiment has weakened as a result bury anticipates that the macroeconomic environment will begin to have a significant impact on earnings bringing down the stock market even further because remember rate hikes will continue until inflation returns to normal levels and we've come a long way so far in fact we're getting further away with each passing month so that's what michael bury is hoping for in the coming weeks yes it's a little concerning but don't get too worked up about it you are aware that these cycles are normal and in order to see them as opportunities we as investors must be thinking long term another thing to keep in mind is that not every company is equally affected we were simply discussing the market as a whole however there are many companies that have no debts or whose business is not generally impacted during a recession or who have pricing power so despite the fact that they are in a recession their earnings can actually rise there are some companies that may still lose market capitalization along with the rest of the market these could be some really good long-term opportunities recession stinks and we as consumers are feeling the pinch remember that as an investor you can still beat inflation and build your fortune it's not always as bleak as the media portrays it to be and many fortunes are made in the deepest darkest recessions that's all we have for today and if you'd enjoy this video why don't you give us a like and subscribe to our finance channel don't forget to hit the bell button below to get notifications on when we post next thank you for staying till the end and hope you enjoyed see you next time
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