저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
1994년 Peter Lynch 강연을 인용하며 금리·인플레이션 예측은 무의미하고 장기 투자 관점을 유지해야 한다고 주장하는 영상. 미국 인플레이션이 연 7%로 재상승했고 연준이 올해 세 차례 금리 인상을 예고해 주식시장에 부담이 된다는 시장 우려를 설명. Lynch는 주식시장과 금리를 예측하는 것은 불가능하다고 말하며, 금리를 정확히 맞히는 사람은 억만장자가 되었을 것이라는 논리를 인용. 1994년 당시 금리·폭락 논쟁이 있었지만 S&P 500은 460에서 4,600으로 올랐고 금리 논쟁은 장기 성과에 사실상 영향이 없었다고 주장. 과거 93년간 10% 이상 조정은 50회, 25% 이상 약세장은 15회 있었으며, 하락은 불가피하므로 준비가 필요하다고 강조. 하락 시 좋은 기업을 싸게 살 기회로 보라고 제안하며 단기 자금을 주식에 넣는 것은 위험하다고 경고. 결론적으로 인플레이션·금리 상승기에도 뉴스와 공포·과열에 휘둘리지 않고 좋은 기업을 장기 보유하면 된다고 권고. 특정 종목 언급이나 가격 목표는 없음.
다듬은 글
so we recently received new inflation data guess what it showed that the annual inflation rate in the United States has risen yet again inflation is currently running at 7% per year we already know that as a result of this inflation Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve intend to raise interest rates Thrice this year meaning they intend to stifle the economy and slow business however raising interest rates have the unintended consequence of making businesses and the stock markets appear less appealing in contrast super secure government bonds begin to appear more appealing and this does not necessarily imply that the stock market will fall however a high interest rate environment puts significantly more pressure on the stock market than a low interest rate one this has been a source of concern for investors they've made significant progress in recent years they are now concerned that as interest rates rise those gains will be reversed in fact we may see the opposite with inflation now approaching 7% the gloom and red narrative is gaining Traction in the media everything just seems a million times harsher these days it's difficult to avoid a big negative headline front and center on these news sites that isn't about inflation interest rates or the Federal Reserve but all of this talk debate and concern about interest rates and inflation always brings me back to what Peter Lynch author of one up on Wall Street said back in 1994 no one can predict the stock market but they can predict interest rates a billionaire would be concerned if someone predicted interest rates correctly three times in a row there aren't many billionaires in the world there can't be many people who can choose interest rates because there would be too many billionaires and no one can foresee the economy when we had a 20% prime rate double- digigit inflation and double- digigit unemployment I distinctly remember every time we experienced the worst recession since the Great Depression so what I'm trying to say is that knowing what the stock market will'll do would be extremely useful it would be fantastic to know that if the Dow Jones average Falls by X points in a year we will enter a full-fledged recession our interest rate will be 12% that's helpful information however you never know you simply do not have the opportunity to learn it so I've always said that if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I stand by that we watch that video whenever we feel ourselves getting drawn into Market prediction territory we just went and watched that clip and we love it because it really makes you actually realize that market predictions and interest rate guesses are a constant in the world of the stock market this is a 1994 lecture and all the talk back then was about whether the stock market would crash and what interest rates would be but did it make a difference have you ever taken an economics or finance class where they talked about how interest rates work in 1994 and how much it affected the stock market's long-term performance no because it was completely insignificant the S&P 500 was at 460 points at the time however it is now at 4,600 points but it's funny how at the time that topic was being discussed as if it had to be figured out or investors would be doomed and we still talk about it in the same way today we're still treating interest rates and inflation as if they're the end all and be all of the markets so after watching that clip we hope you feel the same way we do it didn't matter back then so it probably doesn't matter anymore not if you're looking for a long-term investment the markets experienced 50 drops of 10% or more that is referred to as a correction it is a euphemism for losing a lot of money quickly there have been 50 declines in 93 years with the market falling 10% every 2 years 15 of the 50 declines have been 25% or greater this is referred to as a bare Market in 93 years there have been 15 decreases so every six years the market will experience a 25% decline that's all there is to it you must understand where the market is headed and at sometimes it will be down you should not own stocks if you're not prepared for that and it's a good thing when it happens if you like a stock at 14 and it drops to six that's fantastic you know the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing well and you're hoping to get to 22 14 to 22 is fantastic and 6 to 22 is extraordinary so you take advantage of these price decreases they will take place nobody knows when they will occur that is the most important message for investors for all investors concerned about interest rate inflation and a possible recession just watch that video a million times there are some things that would be nice to know where the S&P 500 will be in a year or interest rates in 2 years but you don't know that and no one else does yes inflation may run rampant and into rates may be raised to 15% yes the stock market Could Fall by 30% but you won't know when or if it will happen as an investor what you really need to do is accept as Peter Lynch put it that the market will go down from time to time you are aware that market declines occur nobody saw the pandemic coming it hit the United States and the market dropped by 30% at the start of 2020 so as an investor you must accept that these events will occur and that they will catch you completely off guard if you're at peace with those two things you can begin to think about how to approach your investing which spoiler alert is to always keep a long-term mindset longterm the upside outweighs the downside so you'll ask yourself do I need the money in the next month will I require funds next year do I have any College Bound children I'm getting married soon then you are a poor investor if you can keep putting money into your 5 10 15 20 and 25 year plans you should do well when the market Falls you won't see it coming and it will sting you at some point during your investing career so with that in mind what are your plans you're a fool if you invest your money that you need in the short term to earn a quick buck in the market you know you're a bad investor if you invest your money that you'll need to pay your rent tuition for your children or a wedding because the market may fall in the short term remember we don't know when it will happen and if it does fall in the short term you're out of luck however if you invest money you don't need and add to your portfolio on a regular basis over 10 20 30 years you should do very well so in the end the answer to the question how should you invest during High inflation or how should we invest when interest rates are likely to rise significantly we should approach it in the same manner that we always approach investing rationally rather than speculatively recognize that bad things will happen from time to time you know you're going to get it at some point which could be when inflation is high and interest rates are raised or it could be tomorrow at 2:41 p.m.
but who knows stay logical and focused on the long term and that is the simplest way to know you'll do well investing in the market during these periods but it all depends on your investing personality don't get sucked into the news don't get caught up in the rumors don't be swayed by fear de or hype to summarize it will always be frightening there will always be something to be concerned about but if you own good companies and adopt a long-term mindset what happens with interest rates and inflation as well as the market short-term performance won't matter as much that's all we have for today and if you enjoy the video why don't you give us a like And subscribe to our finance Channel don't forget to hit the Bell button below to get notifications on when we post next thank you for staying till the end of the video and hope you enjoyed see you next time
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