저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 좋은 뉴스와 나쁜 뉴스가 섞인 상태. 일본과의 15% 관세 합의와 5,500억달러 투자는 관세 불확실성을 줄여 호재지만, 물가 상승 우려로 금리인하는 어렵다고 봄. 실적시즌은 대체로 양호(알파벳 호조, 테슬라 매출·이익 미스에도 로보택시 스토리로 상승). 다만 소형주 투기 과열(공매도 급등주, 1~3달러 주식)과 데이터센터 투자 과잉 논란에 경계 필요. 크리스퍼는 투기적이나 3배 또는 무 가능성 언급, 인튜이티브서지컬은 매수 추천, 우버는 매수 권유.
다듬은 글
[ you. It's to put it in context. So call me 1 800 743 CBC Jim Kramer. Sometimes you just can't pin a market down. You see things that are so solid, real companies doing real things and getting rewarded for them. Then you see other companies, small cap companies that are being pushed higher by hedge funds and social media with stocks that have no business going higher.
It's a broadening market but not broad enough. It's speculative but not so speculative that it's worth worrying too much about. That's how I feel on a day when the Dow jumped 58 points as it be gained.78%. NASDAQ advance 61%. In short, it was a terrific outing for stocks no matter how you feel. So let's play a game.
Let's talk about what's troubling in this market and what's not. Maybe that way you can figure out how to approach things because boy is it getting confusing. I want to start with the tariff deal that President Trump struck with the Japanese last night. That's the largest trade deal ever. At least according to the president.
Make no mistake, this was a terrific deal for both sides. There's now 15% tariff on Japanese products, including cars, win for the Treasury, even as it raises the price of Japanese cars and trucks for you. But if there was no deal, it it would have been almost double that. So the Japanese automakers saw their stock sore.
No, look, I happen to like deals where you could take either side and still feel like you got to win, and this was one of them. I'm sure Japan would have preferred the pre-Trump status quo, but this is much, much less extreme than anyone was expecting in April. I say, great stuff. My at the same time though, if you're Fed Chief JP, you're looking at the price of new cars and you have to be worried that inflation hasn't peaked and it might not peak anytime soon.
So what does that mean? No rate cuts. Bad stuff. Now along with this deal is a pledge by the Japanese to invest $550 billion dollars in the United States. Again, a very big deal because the Japanese are not really known for their buy of American merchandise. That money will go to all sorts of manufacturing, defense, semic steel.
It could be the template for other deals around the world, including South Korea and most of all Europe. These kinds of deals are good news for the market because they remove the tariff uncertainty and 50% is something most businesses can live with. What could go wrong with that? Well, we have so many pledges for so many different entities to hire here.
Yet, we don't have nearly enough people to take the jobs. That could be very inflationary. And what happens with inflation? No rate cuts. All of these pledges will ensure that we won't have a dangerous uptick in unemployment. Although with a 4.1% unemployment rate, that's not something we need to worry about.
Remember, as long as unemployment is low, that is good news for stocks. Right now, the only real source of layoffs I see is from artificial intelligence. But there are many areas where it's simply not yet good enough to replace real people. But again, when you have a tight labor market that's likely to get tighter thanks to all these pledges, and you have a president who's hardline on immigration, then companies will have to pay up for workers.
So, what does that mean? We should worry about wage inflation. Different kind of inflation quickly spreads throughout the economy. We have to hope that there are plenty of robots ready to do the jobs that can't be filled or chairman pal no rate cuts until he's done. What else? All right, we're in the earning season, right?
And now we're really in the thick of darn thing and the stocks are reacting to very good numbers. Sometimes you have good numbers, they don't react. That's not the case this time. The bank set the tone with this good business and now loan loss reserves are small. Again, something that happens when you have what we used to call full employment.
Now we're scanning some healthcare and life sciences. They're all good even if it's small sample. Boston Scientific Dan her thermbo fish are all roared today. And then let's talk about Alphabet parent of Google. That was the star of the after hours show beating sales and earnings estimates and delivering strong numbers in the cloud.
AI even in search where there were concerns that Gemini their AI bot might be cannibalizing that incredibly valuable franchise. Gemini turns out has 450 million monthly average users. That's fantastic. One of the big reasons why the stock exploded during the conference call. Oh, on the other hand though, you got tech companies that aren't getting credit for solid numbers.
IBM reportedly looked like a nice top and bottom line beat after the close, but because its software business came in a little light, the stock's getting clobbered in the after hours trading. I'm not so sure how that right is, but it's happening. Tesla though reported a top and bottom line miss yet the stock is holding up because Elon Musk told a very good story about robo taxis as well as new cheaper models that are supposed to come out later this year.
It's a tech company now as the car business missed estimates and no one seemed to care. So, I mean, we have one hand on the other. I mean, look, Chipotle wasn't so good tonight. T-Mobile was good. I'm fine with that. You know why? Because the good does still outweigh the bad. And that is very positive.
At the same time though, we got to talk about something that is really starting to bug the heck out of me. We got to talk about froth. fought the fields like the market before the great recession hit in 2008 or the docom period in 1999 or or the spack and game stock man of 2021 terrible role models.
There are some hedge funds and followers of stocks on Reddit's Wall Street bets forum that are set that are up to speculative things that make my stomach well let's say churn. I'm not talking about things like a nuclear power play I've endorsed which was this very positive in this morning's news. I'm talking about stocks like Kohl's, okay?
50% short interest that at one point doubled because of social media instigation just to bash the hapless shorts who are truly pressing their bets here. Even with Kohl's, there's some merit. Kohl's used to trade in the 50s three years ago and it received three takeover bids right in that level. Stock the short busting started uh it was at 10 bucks having traded as low as six bucks.
That's too cheap. Downright embarrassing though that so many hedge funds have been caught with their pants down again in a situation where there's too much short interest and not enough stock floating around to cover if something good happens and and something good could happen. Kohl's has no debt maturities for four years of any size.
It has new leadership. It has a fabulous deal with Sephora. What happens if one of those acquirers comes back? Not a safe short. But away from Kohl's, we see things happening that if we had a tough SEC, well, we would be against. Many one and two and $3 stocks are getting bagged, being gunned, and for all I know, being liquidated BTL for a quick win.
Yeah, I don't want to dignify them with me. I'm not even going to mention their names here, but I would say that many of these should be investigated. It just doesn't seem right. Against that, we have gigantic themes that are so strong you can see how they might be moldier in nature. Take G Vernov, we can talk about that later.
How taxed the workers on the grid are uh as they mastermind all the humongous orders for the data centers. All parts of the data centers are strong. We know that even from tonight with the numbers from Alphabet, which is putting in a lot more capex than anyone thought they would. But there are still people who are deeply suspicious of the data center buildout.
They're calling it overbuilding and don't think the hyperscalers need all that computing power. Their skepticism extends to any capital equipment stock and any financial services stock. Now, maybe they aren't uh necessarily off base. Ferve, a fintech company, blew up today and was one nasty comedown.
But you know what? People are going nuts for Alphabet today and that's going to spill over tomorrow. That stock's been a horse. The bottom line, it's mixed. Some good, some bad. You know what? When it gets all good, it will be too good. When it gets all bad, it'll be too bad. Maybe right now it's just right and we should be skeptical but not cynical because there's too much money being made and I don't want you to leave the table.
Peter in Florida. Peter, a heartfelt booyah. Mr. Grammar, longtime listener and lifetime learner. Thank you for continuously helping the average Hans in France to get a leg up in the game. My question is about Uber. Mhm. Um I should I I have 500 chairs. Should I accumulate or should I hold on? I mean it had a couple of days of of of drop.
Isn't this interesting? Think about what you asked. This is the kind of thing that is fascinating to me. Now Peter asked should he stay or should he sell? But you know what he should be doing? Buy by buy. He should be buying. That's the the kind of skepticism I like. Healthy skepticism. But the stock is worth buying right here.
Let's go clear across the country to Steve in California. Steve, hey, Jim. Uh, how you doing? Great day. How about you, partner? Good, thank you. Um, hi. I'm an investment professional and every day on my ride to the pool hall after work, I listen to the show and I love the show. Um, I woke up to my one of my largest positions being up 16%, $10 a share last Friday with barely a mention in the news.
It's Crisper Therapeutic CRSP. Yeah. You see, here's the deal. There's so many stocks that are going up, people don't even like think. It's like, "Oh, man. Boy, I forgot about Crisper." Well, I haven't. I think Crisper is a terrific, terrific, but speculative situation. And I think you should be able to speculate.
I think Crisper, look, Crisper could either triple or do nothing. That's not a bad ratio. Let's go to Dave in Connecticut. Dave, booyah. Jim, uh, thanks for taking my call. Of course. So, I've been a, uh, I guess called various times over the last 20 years. In fact, we met uh, two months ago uh, at uh, in Norah, Connecticut at the Foss Forest signing.
Even some Well, that was fun, wasn't it? That was fun. We were up there at Total Wine and More, you know, that was a nice crowd up there in Nor. It was a really nice crowd. Thank you for coming. I really appreciate it. It was It was a really nice uh nice afternoon. So, and and in fact, I'm also a founding club member and it's uh been fantastic having access to all that info.
Oh, thank you. Hey, I met this club member. We went to the doctor today. I mean, the club member is like we both, you know, we just kind of chatted about some of the things that we've done, right? He had some ideas, too. It is a club. I can't live it. It really is a club. It is. We talk. You come, you come to the liquor signing.
My wife My wife bagged me on that one. She has some other stuff to do. That's all right. What's happening? Well, I uh I I just also wanted to thank uh all of your staff. They're fantastic. And also, you know, in particular the recap of those morning meetings, which I also love. Uh you know, Natasha and others that do that.
I mean, unsung heroes here that help us out so much. Us man, I'm telling you, we are hustling for club members. We really are. How can I help you right now, Dave? Sure. Sure. So, I've been uh over time, I guess since the beginning of the year, I've been slowly making small purchases of Intuitive Surgical, right?
and you know on weakness and last night they reported a pretty strong quarter and they seem to be rolling out the Da Vinci 5 pretty well and yet they still seem to be in the doghouse and I know they manufacture in the USA and in Mexico. So I want I was kind of waiting to see if it might even benefit.
You and I are in the exact same place. They were talking about second quarter placement not being that good. I didn't see it that way. Dave, I think they've got a lot in the pipe. I'm inclined to recommend the stock. I don't see what the Bears were squawking about. And I want to thank you for meeting me up there at the Fosphoro signing.
And you're a terrific guy to be a club member. All right. The picture's mixed right now, but I don't want you to be cynical cuz there's too many things going right. Be skeptical. Don't be cynical and don't leave the table. Many look at club stock Genova go so more than 14% today. I'm running through the powerhouse of a company breaking down the numbers that greed has been a frustrating stock getting clobbered after earnings stock investment 5% yield to give you my take and Otis is going down after earnings.
I'm getting a read on the elevator business which was not up and down just down and seeing what clues it can give us on the state of construction particularly with China and with the CEO. So I want you t.
Comments 0