저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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AI 설비투자는 과잉이 아니라 과소투자이며, AI 경쟁은 승자독식 구조라고 주장. 알파벳의 AI 개요 이용자 20억명과 검색 두자릿수 성장을 근거로 제시. 엔비디아를 핵심 수혜주로 꼽고 중국 엔비디아 칩 수출 허용 필요성을 언급. 챗봇 오답 경험을 들어 정확도 높은 AI가 승리한다고 설명.
다듬은 글
Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Bad Money. Welcome to CR America. Up here, make friends. Hey, I'm just trying to make a little money. My job is not just entertain, but to well, put it all in context. So, call me at 180073 CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. We keep hearing that all the AI spending by the hyperscalers, the nation state companies like Google or Microsoft has to stop eventually.
It's not worth the price. They'll regret it. They aren't getting a lot out of it. And then you get a quarter like the one Alphabet reported yesterday where they added $10 billion to their already $75 billion capital expenditure budget and you realize just how off base these criticisms might be. As long as the spending continues to make sense and that makes well it sure seems made sense when the case of Alphabet which is the parent of Google.
It seems like these investments are both urgent and needed that spending is also a big part of the reason why this market can hang in there. Dow declining 316 points but the S&P advancing 007%. Now it's that gain.18%. Last night I listened to Sundar Pichai. He's the visionary CEO of Alphabet. Talk about AI and how much it means to his company.
I just give you one quote here. Uh AI is positively impacting every part of the business driving strong momentum. This quarter search delivered doubledigit revenue growth. End quote. But then he goes on to say, "AI overviews now has over two billion monthly users across more than 200 countries and territories and 40 languages." End quote.
Now, if you don't use Google, these AI overviews gives you the summary that appears at the top of the search pages. It's a game changer that makes people want to keep coming back to Google search even as many like me worried that search may go the way of the dodo. I mean, why do you search? I figure when you can just go right to one of the major chat bots, avoiding Google search entirely.
They're not. They're going to more than ever. PI explains they're not mutually exclusive. It's easy to just stick the AI results in there because, well, he's got the leading global network of AI optim optimized data centers. In other words, he who spends the most money on AI wins. I am sure we'll hear something similar next week from Meta and Microsoft and Amazon.
I wish I could say the same about Apple, but it remains on the sidelines. When you hear about this spending, you should be thinking one thing, Nvidia. You can't be dominant in search unless you buy the latest and greatest chips from Jensen Mong, CEO of Nvidia. The naysayers tell us that spending is a big waste of money.
But if you listen to Jensen, he says his best hardware and software stacks can give you four times your money's worth. Given what Alpha said last night, you know what? I think it probably works out to about four times. Now, Nvidia is not a tax on the system. It's an expander. It's a force multiplier.
That's why it is so important for the US government to allow China to have a version of Avidia's AI technology. You know, we we tend to assume that uh China makes everything we want while needing nothing from us aside from those Avidia semiconductors. That's not really true. We're beginning to get cheaper products from elsewhere.
By the way, we know from Judy Mars, the CEO of Otis, the elevator company, that China's business is miserable right now. We know from Jim Fiddling, the CEO of Dow, Inc., that China's no longer the cheapest place to make plastic. Just picked those two because it happened in the last 24 hours. Really, China's got two things going for it.
It's got electric cars and first class military. But what it needs more than ever is Nvidia's chip stack. That's the only reason they're willing to make a deal with us on trade, even releasing their chokeold on rare earth minerals. Nvidia. Still, the skepticism is thick and frankly somewhat justified.
I'm heavily relying on some of the chatbot sites, not all, but I spend a lot of time on them. I'm chiefly on Grock, the Elon Musk site that spoke about in his otherwise not so hot Tesla conference call last night. I checked the advanced chat GPT mostly out of respect for Sarah Frier, the fabulous CFO of Open AI.
I use Claude from Anthropic because my computer savvy daughter tells me it's the best one right now. Meta AI is my go-to for pop culture and I'm on perplexity probably 25 times a day if not more and part because Jensen Wong told me he looks at it regularly which got me hooked last night in a rare game to be actually human.
I went out with my wife and her friend something I never do especially during earning season. It was a huge amount of fun by the way definitely kind of playing hookie and I realized it was though when it was over I was way behind the eightball when the dinner broke up even as I remembered why people go out to dinner because it really is kind of fun.
So, I decided I needed to take a shortcut of AI and began to prompt the sites for information about some earnings. For the first Chipotle, I got a couple of nuggets, but I knew I'd have to wake up early and read through that one. Then I put in IBM and all the sites had the same thing. Software was a little soft.
Nothing else though. Then I knew I needed service now. Okay. Because it seems to have the most exposure to AI as any as a software as a service play. And you got to know what they're saying. I knew the stock had enjoyed a significant move higher after the bell last night. Although some people said it couldn't last.
So what I did was around 10:30 11:00 I went to one of the chatbot sites. I will not reveal which one because it's so embarrassing. And I put in the prompt about why did Service Now stock go up after the company reported and then down after the conference call because that's what I I figured would happen.
There appeared an astounding story about how the slowdown in enterprise software had finally hit service now and the company's high valuation made it very vulnerable. Now I knew there could be some weakness because the software as a service sector is not as strong as it used to be. They charged by the person and if AI is replacing humans that mean fewer people but I started jotting down notes about what caused the real weakness and how management addressed the weakness if they could.
I knew I had a good story about the decline and fall of Service Now until the next day when I checked some actual news organizations and saw the stock was actually flying high after a much better expected quarter. The story I read on the AI generated site was 100% wrong. They know nothing. Now, I don't know why this ridiculously embarrassing incident even occurred, but it's not exactly unusual for these AI platforms to make things up.
Here's what I do know. The more new chips you have from Nvidia, the less likely your AI will get things wrong like I saw last night about Service. Now, I also believe there's so much skepticism in large part because people simply don't trust the answers they get from these platforms. You know what? Rightly so.
So, my take is that Google is upping it in spending because the most accurate chatbot will be the winner. Just like how Google search won to begin with, the bots that are wrong too often will lose. And just like Google search, if you win the AI race, you can end up with a near monopoly and hundreds of billions of dollars in profits.
My conclusion, these companies aren't overspending on AI. They are actually under spending on AI. Under spending. See, this is a winner take all loser take none situation. The only reason to spend less is if you don't believe you can win. Bottom line. That's the reason why Nvidia is the largest company in the universe.
It's why Apple has to use this moment to make a good site great. And it's why Google still in the conversation and might even end up winning the battle for AI just like it won the battle for search. Gabe in Michigan. Gabe, hey Jim, big buoy out here from Michigan and club member. Oh, thank you Gabe.
Thank you very much. We were boy Jeff and I really cooking today on the honeymill in Dover, weren't we? Yes. My question for you, sir. Given the uh significant program charges and reduced cash flow in Q2 here, how do you assess its ability to sustain long-term growth, especially in light of the increased defense demand and ongoing development challenges and legacy programs for Lockheed Martin?
Um, look, I know Jim Tlet. I know he's going to figure this out, but everybody tells me, every single research note told me that you have to buy Northrup Grumman for when it comes to the weapon, the big the big defense procurement. And I still like our environment. Av I mean it was AVAV is he broke the story.
Uh Nwab broke the story about why things were so great there. And that stock is up about 90 points since he came on the show and I'm sticking by it. Now we're going to go to Ali in New York. Alli. Hi Jim. Hi Ali. What's up? Hi. Good. First congrats on 20 years. Oh thank you. I'm up 17% on the stock I bought this spring.
It is 70% up this past year, but is still down 39% from its all-time high, and it's down almost 10% this month. Morgan Stanley issued a positive note on its new CEO. U but they've had insider selling recently and it is enterprise software. I'm wondering if they report a good quarter next month. Um should I sell or trim my position?
Uh the stock is Snowflake. Okay, Snowflake. Well, Sidar Ramaswami came on our show and broke the story of that much better than Betty quarter and I say you just hold on to this. There's going to be ups and downs. Maybe it takes a little fluff out of it, but Shredar is good for it. And I think that could be a great long-term position.
I like the stock of Snowflake. All right. The AI race could be a winner spend all situation. I think the only reason a a company wouldn't spend money is because they already think they're going to lose. Well, man, I tell you, Honeywood reported an earnings beat, but the stock fell response. So, are investors getting an opportunity to pick up a high quality name at a discount, or am I just a complete and utter idiot?
I'll tell you what, why check in with the CEO to find out? Then, I was worried about the club stock Dana her DHR going in this quarter, but the report really helped us solidify our thesis. I'm going to give you my take on the name, and we're all about covering the stories that you want to hear, even if I think they're too speculative.
So tonight I'm checking in with one that I know you're interested in, a quantum computing company called IONQ. You get a read on the state of this burgeoning industry. And I'm going to cover every single one of these from now on. .
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