저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 경제·증시는 2009년 이후 최장 호황을 누렸으나 부채가 사상 최고 수준이라 몇 달~1~2년 내 심각한 경제·증시 위기가 올 것이라 주장. 금리·인플레 상승 조짐을 우려하며 아직 공매도는 안 했다고 함. 연준은 위기 시 금리인하·돈 찍기에 의존할 것이나 이번엔 효과가 제한적. 중국 부동산·관광·엔터 등 부진 업종에서 기회를 찾는 중이며, 모두가 낙관할 때가 위험, 모두 비관할 때가 투자 기회라는 역발상 입장. 기술주는 AI 등 변화가 크나 자신은 잘 모른다고 함.
다듬은 글
for for hi Jim thank you so much for joining us again today nice to see you I am delighted to be here right you're always a lot of fun and smart um do you want to say hi to the audience hello audience I I love China and I what is happening there in the world and in China but I don't like the bad parts of what's happening in the world or China so first question how do you assess the current policies of the Federal Reserve and their impact on both the US and Global economies because at the beginning of this year when we talked before the market consensus was that this year the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates aggressively however they have not done so by the middle of this year well right the American economy and stock market has had the longest period in history the longest in American history since 2009 without a problem now maybe it's going to go on forever the politicians say don't worry we'll never have a problem again I know that the world has always had problems and we always will if you ask me we're in the last few months of a long wonderful period I can see things starting to happen which are worrisome interest rates are going up inflation's going up now I can see problems developing but I have not started selling short yet I am not selling short yet what do you foresee as the key challenges and opportunities for the US economy in the coming years coming years well let's get through the coming weeks first I know that historically we're going to have a problem sometime in the next few weeks or months we always have and it's probably going to be a very bad problem because right the debt the debt is so very very high in America it's the highest in the history of the world so the next problem I don't like it but has to be a bad problem so I think that I know that America is going to have a serious economic problem serious stock market problem in the next year or two it's going to last for a while because we have so much debt now but always after we have a huge problem things have gotten better and we start over I hope it happens again that way do you have an estimate of time when the economy will face the problem in your mind like a timeline well I'm not smart enough to do that but I would I I think by the end of this year by the election or after things will start going wrong in the US and therefore in the world do you think the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates soon because the market consensus is that by the end of this year 2024 there will probably be one or two interest race Cuts well there probably will especially if things start going wrong when things start going wrong all they know at the central bank is print money cut rates cut rates they will that's certainty that's all they know when things start going wrong so yes is it going to work no it may work for a short time but the problems are so huge now that it's going to take much more than that so considering recent global economic Trends and Regional development as well as changes in Industry Supply chains where do you see the most most promising investment opportunities in the future and also like what potential risks should investors be aware of well the main risk is that everything is great right now and everything has been great for a long time I love it when everybody's happy and making money but I've been around long enough and rare enough to know that when everybody's happy that usually means somebody's going to be unhappy soon the only place I mean there usbekistan is probably a good place to look now but nearly every other Market in the world is at a new high or has been very strong and when everybody's doing well you should worry worry I don't like it but I know enough to know I know enough history to know that when everybody's happy somebody should be worried I remember you have previously stated that you believe the best opportunities in the world are in China and you were one of the earliest investors who started investing in China so from an international investors perspective which Assets in the Chinese market are most attractive to you at this moment in in my experience when there's a problem somewhere you look to see what is hurt the most whichever parts of the economy are suffering uing the worst that's where I look for opportunities yes property has done very badly entertainment tourism travel all of these things have done badly in China so I am looking I have not found anything yet but that's partly because I'm lazy and I hope I will certainly find more opportunities for investment in China especially when a market is down that nearly always leads to Opportunities we have a lot of audience who are institutional Chinese investors today so do you have any advice for Chinese institutional investors but my main advice would be that what I do is look at what's down the most and see if they're good opportunities at what's down the most I know your parents taught you to buy low and sell high I would tell the institutional investors look at what is low look at what is down the most maybe there's something there however right now everybody's talking about something High which is the technology sector right everybody likes to chase the technology sector and also in today's rapidly evolving world of technological innovations which advancements do you believe will have the most profound impact on the economy and Society yeah you said something very insightful perceptive yes everybody is chasing the hot technology right now okay if you're good at it do it and you might make a lot of money some of them are going to do extremely well artificial intelligence is going to change everything we know though you know which are going to be the best ones invest I am not very good in technology so I'm not very good at it but if there are many people who who are extremely good at it technology artificial and challenges is going to change everything we know it's going to put a lot of people out of business good Ru electricity put a lot of people out of business too but it also helped change the world artificial intelligence will too and if you know the right companies and I don't but if you know them you're going to make a lot of money with your wealth of investment experience because you told me before you've been investing for like in the past 50 years including a lot of legendary decisions so can you share the investment decision that you are most satisfied with well the most in exciting investment decision I have ever made is having two children I have two daughters all of my life I was against children I thought children were a horrible waste of time and money I felt sorry for people who had children I was never going to have children right well I had one I was 60 when I had my first child I realized I made a I was wrong I've been wrong for many years so the best investment decision I have ever made is having children and by the way I know that in Asia many people think boys are better that's wrong that's wrong if you have children you should have girls girls are much much better than boyss is there a common investment philosophy logic or method that underlies your successful Investments well I will repeat a hundred times you should only invest in what you yourself know a lot about don't listen to people on the television or the internet or you know the stock bro don't listen to other people when you go to the bar on Saturday night many people will give you a hot tip please never invest in Hot Tips Hot Tips will ruin you I guess the best investment advice I will give you is stay away from Hot Tips invest only in what you yourself know a lot about and then you will be extremely successful yes right now a lots of Chinese investors including young people they're kind of pessimistic about China's economy so is there anything you would like to say to them I have learned from reading and from my own experience about history when everybody's pess you should be looking to see if you can find good more people who are pessimistic the more opportunities you will find you still must be careful you must still stay with what you know but when everybody's optimistic is not so wonderful but when everybody's pessimistic oh my gosh that's a good time for an invest if everybody and you said many people are pessimistic that's a very good time for people to look for new Investments when everybody's happy when you go to the party and everybody's telling you about the their stocks you should work but if you go to the party and everybody's saying oh my God I'll never invest in stocks again you should say wow if you go to the dentist and the receptionist ask you for stocks to buy you should worry but if you go to the dentist and the receptionist says oh it's very sad about you you're in the stock market you must be suffering very badly you should be excited and you should be happy and you should be looking to find new Investments thank you so much so much for sharing your opinions with us
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