저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
관세 정책 일시 유예는 경제에 긍정적 전개로 평가. 그러나 10% 관세가 협상 불가라면 약 3,000억달러 규모 증세 효과로 여전히 부담. 스태그플레이션성 경기침체 확률을 45%로 상향. 채권시장 압박이 대통령 정책 선회에 영향을 줬다고 분석. 10년물 금리는 적정 수준(4.5%±0.25%)보다 낮은 3.75~4.25%로 하향 조정했으나 경제 회복탄력성 강조. 중국 관세 문제는 미해결. 자동차 선구매 수요 급증 예상하나 관세발 물가 상승은 지속 우려.
다듬은 글
Let's bring in Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. It's good to have you here. Thank you. Bond market do this? Absolutely. I think the bond vigilantes uh got the president's attention. As Aean just said, uh the president was watching what was going on in the bond market. Uh I think we were about to have a credit event and that's sure way to create a recession.
So everything kind of fits together. In the past, it was usually tight monetary policy that caused the credit event that caused the recession. this time around it was tariff policy that was threatening a recession and the bond market was anticipating a real crisis. What now? Well, I think that uh you know the we still have obviously a tariff issue and it looks like there's a lot of confusion whether the 10% is negotiable or not.
I mean a 10% uh tariff if it's not negotiable is still about $300 billion. That's still a very big tax increase that'll probably mostly hit uh American companies and American consumers. And so that that is an issue. Uh but uh I'm I'm I raised my odds of a stagflation recession scenario to to 45%. I was thinking about taking it higher.
Uh glad you but I waited. Uh I I did think that the financial markets would have an an influence on on the president. I I've been talking not only about the bond vigilantes but the stock vigilantes. The silly notion that uh the the rich own all the stocks. So, it doesn't really matter if the stock market's down.
It's ridiculous because there's a lot of people with 401ks. There's a lot of people uh that are involved in the market. Even if it's small shares, it matters a great deal to them. I was hearing a lot of uh people that I I went and got a haircut the other day and everybody was talking about how much money they just lost last week.
So, I think that um this is a a positive development for the economy. Did we get a bridge too far in terms of some of the damage that's already been done and is that yet to show its face within this market? Certainly earnings remain the greatest unknown that we could talk about. I I think it could have been a lot more damage if it was if it went on a few more weeks, a few more months, but I think the fact that it got nipped in the bud so so quickly is important.
And I I I think Brad made a very good point here is I was really dreading the idea of going into an earning season and having managements have to say we don't know what this is going to do to our our business. Uh now they don't have to say that. Well, they could they they probably might will still say that.
Yeah. With regards to China, for example. Yeah. I I think China the issue with China is clearly not over and that's a big deal. Did is this enough of a development today that you would be comfortable suggesting that people buy buy into this? I never told anybody to sell it. I told everybody it's too late to panic.
Uh and I feel pretty pretty comfortable with that and I thought there would be buying opportunities. But uh you know you have to be a mind reader. You have to read the mind of the president because clearly this has all been uh initiated by the president. depends on what he's watched on TV and you know he listens to his adviser at the end of the day he says you know what this is what we're going to do and it just kind of comes out of the blue and we all got hit with it.
Well, look, I mean, you know, someone like Jamie Diamond's an influential person. Absolutely. When he's talking about the probability of recession. Yeah. Well, thank you, J. Thank you, Jamie Diamond. But, but let's be clear. Um, everybody, and I'm sure you as well, everybody that I've been speaking with, from the highest of hedge fund managers to the highest levels of banking in this town, we're worried about what was happening in the bond market.
Absolutely. And it had a real chance to get out of control. Yeah, I think that's absolutely uh correct. uh we could have had a a credit crisis and a credit crunch and I think this reduces that likelihood. It's not impossible that something bad will still happen. But we're hearing about a lot of small businesses who are really about to get annihilated because they are so dependent on on trade on what they import.
Are are you still unnerved at all about the backing up of of yields? Um do we how much do we need that? Let's just say, you know, you take this issue uh off the boil. Yeah. The so-called basis trades and all that stuff that got talked about a lot on our network today. Let's say the unwind there is, if not fully finished, close to it.
Do we need yields to come back down by a significant level to make you feel more comfortable? Well, it would help the mortgage market. It would help the uh the housing industry, but we've been thinking that u the bond deal is kind of back to normal where it was before the great financial crisis. is we've been thinking the 10ear should in fact be trading at 4 1/2% uh plus - 25 basis points.
Uh we did blink and we lowered that a bit to 3 and 3/4% to 4 and a/4%. But uh no I I think the economy is resilient. I think it's proven over the past 3 years its resilience to tightening of monetary policy. I I think we're going to be surprised. I think we're going to have a surge in auto sales as people try to beat the tariffs on autos.
Um, as Steve said, we're we're not out of the woods on on the inflationary consequences of tariffs. We're going to have higher auto prices if that's if Trump doesn't change his mind on
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