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관세 충격 이후 시장 급락 국면에서 Larry Fink(블랙록)는 경기가 이미 침체일 가능성이 높다고 언급했으며, 출연 패널은 침체 확률은 높아졌지만 확정은 아니고 실적 하향·자사주 매입 축소 등이 나오면 바닥 신호일 수 있다고 봄. 일부 메가캡 매수(시티 소량 매수, 아마존 추가)와 TJX·메리어트 차익실현 언급. 목표치 조정은 수치 확인 후 진행 예정.
다듬은 글
Let's get back to Leslie Picker with more from Larry Frink. Leslie, hey Scott. Yeah. Uh he's talking about the economy and said one thing I would say for certain is the economy is weakening as we speak. He is urging the administration to focus on more of the progrowth agendas which he campaigned on things like tax cuts and deregulation.
Uh and then Eric Shatzer who's the moderator there from Bloomberg he followed up saying are we in a recession? Are we headed for a recession? and Frink said that most of the CEOs he talked to uh say that we are probably in a recession right now. So, we're gonna continue listening, but wanted to bring you those headlines as they happen.
Scott. Okay, Leslie, thanks so much. I mean, this is what I'm alluding to, right, Larry? Think we're probably in a recession right now. Um, which is why you I find it difficult to make the argument that you know the target should be where you have it that earnings are going to be just fine that there's no reason right now to have any expectation other than where earnings are supposed to be and then the multiples justified at the higher end which you said high teens 20 that's you you said that not me um I want to know how you can justify that for our for our viewers given what seems to be for lack of a description quite obvious to most people but you okay and I'll I'll go back to what I said we wrote the reports over the weekend we said that historically when you've had these types of days it's very rare and it's not just because the Fed punch punch a bunch of liquidity since 1950 12 months out from days like this and corrections like this it doesn't matter if it's a correction or it doesn't matter if it's a bare market the market's up on average 29.2% 2% 12 months following.
Now, with respect to changing our target, I can't announce on on international television that we're going to change our target. I have to publish a report. I have to look at the research. I have to do all this. I'm not going to hold on. I'm not going to I'm not going to react to everybody else changing their target because that's not how we roll.
Now, as I said, I will react when I know all the numbers. When I know the numbers are firm and we have confidence in the numbers in terms of growth, then we will So, when we have a when we have a recession, you're going to take your numbers down. because well the market's going to be up a tremendous amount before we have the recession.
If the recession's happening right now, so then you have a recession right now and then two quarters two consecutive quarters of GDP negative by that time we're going to be well into the Fed's probably going to have to cut if if we have a recession the market's going to be rallying Scott. So we could be up from this from these levels.
That's just the way that it works. So I'm not going to react to recession and macro stuff. Once we see the numbers and feel better about with the where the bottoms up numbers, we will change our targets. I mean, look, yeah, sure. Markets typically, if you go back to the old cycles, they bottom like halfway through a recession or something like that.
I just feel like we're sort of several days into the reckoning with what this is going to be. And it's just the the the bands of probabilities around every outcome are so wide that I'm not saying you can't have it happen. And again, if you do a policy U-turn, maybe you haven't done much except cost a lot of credibility on Wall Street and among CEOs with the way that you know policy is being created.
Even if you have a pivot, what what is what is the pivot? I think the issue here is what's it going to be? Yes. And you talk about credit, we talk about like the plumbing of the system. To me, if you're rooting for the Fed to get involved, you're kind of rooting for an accident. And you don't want to do that because the stock market's not going to hang in there for that because it's going to take a while for the data to pile up for them to act if it's just about uh the fundamental uh you know economic numbers.
I I think the first step is the violence of the last several days has to abate and everyone clearly expected that it was going to be a clearing event. We heard that and everyone was positioned for the quote unquote clearing event. You've had this violent deleveraging process. I do think there are things within the market today where you could take hard in.
You could look at Nvidia which is higher. You look at Amazon some of the Mag 7 today look like they want to find some stabilization. That's a good thing. It's not indicative of this is the all clear. I think it's a process more than anything else that we have to go through and that's really what a bottom is a process.
Jimmy bought you bought city today, right? Is that I did I did I nibble I nibbled back at city. Just a little bit of history on this. You remember I trimmed this about two months ago at 84. Where is it right now? 58. I mean, I'm okay uh buying it back here. I trimmed it. I didn't add the full position back.
And by the way, reminder, I sold on uh United Healthcare on Friday. It gave me some cash. I didn't put all that to work. Um why the nibble at all though in in light of what we're talking about is because of my belief, and this is synthesizing everything we're talking about here. Every piece of data that I'm coming in, just about every piece is negative.
Like I'm not talking about the technicals, the historical patterns. I'm talking the fundamental analysis. Every piece is negative. And to me, it strikes me that the the conglomeration, the aggregate of that sentiment is just simply too negative. Let me be clear. The odds of a recession in my opinion have picked up meaningfully.
But what I'm hearing from a lot of people, not looking at you, Mike, just a lot of people is a seeming 100% probability. I'm a little struck by what Larry Frink said. I'm a little struck by it. Um, we may be on the cusp of a recession. We may be headed into a recession. The odds have gone up. But to say that we're in a recession now, I am looking for the massive number of layoff announcements.
I'm not I'm not seeing them. I think they are going to come if we continue on this path, but I'm not seeing it right now. And the reason I bring this up is because this is a moment where the pymics, the the headlines can be damaging. And I'm sorry I'm going to do this. You know, Jamie Diamond is somebody who commands my absolute respect, but it's been 3 years since the hurricane comment.
It's been 3 years. If this is the final reckoning of the hurricane, I just I feel like that I feel like some of the people in positions of power are being um just a little bit careless in what they're saying. Earning season on Friday and ultimately that's going to tell us where the market's going to go through the course of 2025.
Are you going to get the 11% earnings growth that the street is now modeling for? I think we're going to learn a lot about that and it largely depends on the direction of the economy. I don't even know how much you're going to learn uh to be quite honest from this particular earning season other than the commentary is going to be awful.
But we already know that the numbers may not reflect the current environment just like the jobs report this past Friday. Please, it's a jobs are a lagging indicator. A lot of that's before all of this tariff mess has uh ripped through. Subsequent to that, Scott, you lo you will lose you will lose immediately the buyback intentions.
You will lose a lot of the capex that was previously planned if there is that overwhelming universal negativity. You know, you look at other calls in this market. Um we talked some about mega cap obviously and you noted some of the nibbling in these names that you know there was a moment today where the NASDAQ was green.
City was talking about semis today. Could could see another 20% downside. Um discretionary is under huge pressure. What do you think about discretionary names? Um anything travel related has gotten destroyed. You think it's been overdone based on your uh view based on your view? Yeah. So we we've been trimming around and moving some things around discretionary wise because we think from a discretionary sector perspective I think positions are going to be more concentrated in names like Amazon quite frankly and so we've added there.
Where where have you gotten out of then discretionary wise we took we took major profits in TJ Maxx and longer term in Marriott. Marriott because we've seen volumes drop pretty dramatically. Uh and so um and we sold Target a long time ago but Target's in staples. At the end of the day, um, macro data on consumer discretionary, as Joe said, is lagging.
So, consumer sentiment typically bottoms um a week, I'm sorry, a month after the sector bottoms. And so, again, this time may be different. Uh, but at the end of the day, we think a lot of these numbers uh are already in there. Number one. Number two, in terms of the earning side of things, from a modeling perspective in a in a process, if if earnings do come down, and they're they are going to come down and you see all analysts drop their numbers at once in terms of the current fiscal year next to a skewer, that's called an earnings revision.
When you see earnings revisions all drop at the same time, that typically and historically is a fantastic buying opportunity. So I think again not to be always polyiana or positive but I think if you have analysts dropping all their numbers at once I think that actually could signal a nice buying. What would make you negative?
What would what would make you negative? I think if we see continued treacherous um behavior here that's going to be longer than the next month or so. Um if we start to see earnings really decelerate dramatically more than we think it is um then we're going to have to to change our tune. And then lastly, if we see some sort of uptick in inflation, that's also gonna that's also going to bother us and we're going to have to bat down the hatches.
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