저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건 CEO 다이먼은 미국 경제가 1970년대 같은 스태그플레이션으로 갈 수 있다고 경고하며 금리가 시장 예상보다 높게 유지될 것으로 봤다. 반면 내구재 주문은 예상치를 소폭 상회하고 임대료 상승률도 높아 경기침체 신호는 아직 없다는 취지의 발언이 이어졌다. 테슬라는 매출·이익 미스에도 저가 EV 기대감만으로 주가가 오른 것을 비꼬았다.
다듬은 글
what is Jamie Diamond or more specifically Jamie Diamond warning about talk about durable goods PMI mortgage demand we'll give you some numbers around rent growth for apartments and single family but most importantly I want to highlight an interview that I was a part of on the financial firefighters YouTube channel folks do yourself a favor Financial firefighter just published our discussion it was amazing I uh I shared some some stuff in that discussion that I've never shared before so again if you want to know a little bit about what more what makes me tick what what what drives me every day go on over to the financial firefighter give him a subscribe Let's see we can't get him over 500 subs today uh that would be wonderful again uh thank you for that opportunity so let's get into it let's get into Tesla first again as I've said many times I would never touch Tesla it is it is one of those companies that just is driven by Passion either you hate them or you love them and uh that is just it is fun for me to watch from afar so what happened on Tesla well first and foremost they missed on Revenue they missed on earnings but yet yet they just talked about ramping up expectations for an affordable EV at $225,000 folks and again I I find it comical I really do I think it is so funny how many times has Elon Musk over the years talked about something and it's taken years and years to come I just think it is comical uh that he keeps playing the same game and people keep falling for it it's like wow what a cult he has uh he has created and again lots and lots of passionate people people doubling down this that the other yeah Revenue down revenue is down 9% you know but hey you're going to make an affordable car and oh by the way layoffs we going to save a billion dollars I just think it's funny but hey if you own Tesla congratulations you are up big this morning let's move on to some other earnings while we have them we got Visa Visa beat Topline bottom line what I was looking for in Visa's earnings was um volume payment volume and payment volume is up 8% we are still we are still uh we're still charging we are still transacting uh so payment volume up uh Hilton was one of those companies I looked at over the weekend and I highlighted as one to watch they beat Topline they beat bottom line and boosted guidance yes folks uh looks like we are still uh out traveling and traveling around uh next let's talk about Jamie Diamond Jamie Diamond is uh continuing his trend of really speaking Doom in fear this time he is talking about the US economy heading back to 1970s we've talked about that a bunch on this channel the 1970s are frightening not only did you have bell bottoms and all that other stuff in Disco right you also had stagflation you had low growth and high inflation I have said before and we'll say again here stagflation is worse than a recession a lot of you may not understand but in reality stagflation is worse than a recession because you have two competing forces and whatever you do to fix one hurts the other for example you have low growth what do you do you cut rates what happens things pick up and inflation goes up you want to get uh INF down you raise rates the you know the job market comes down so again stagflation is this yucky just not good economy again not negative growth but low Trend and Jamie Diamond thinks we are going there low growth High inflation stag inflation higher rates he thinks rates will be higher than the market expects I think the market is catching on that rates are going to be higher for longer I mean Jerome poell has been remarkably consistent uh it's funny Jamon diam says he has prepared his Executives for either 2% rates or 8% rates anywhere in between that his team has created a plan because again what's really important is you have to make a call at 8% you do something very very different than rates at 2% again think about what you would do if you if rates were to just suddenly come down to 2% you would do this and if rat Spike to 8% you would do that so again and we need to be prepared and look at all of those things uh let's talk about durable goods durable goods uh came in at 2.6% what does that mean it means the economy consumers are still buying uh last was 1.3 uh estimate was 2.5 so came in just above expectations again no sign of a recession uh durable goods orders would be negative if we were in a recession today uh again um just just reality right we can I think what's I think what's really happening is there's a lot of noisy doomers who have frankly been wrong for a long time and I think those noisy doomers are clouding people's judgments I think there's a whole collection of folks that are just out doing it and they don't talk they don't make noise right they're out building businesses they're out doing this or that um I don't know it's just it's it's just really weird to watch right the numbers are pretty consistent uh that the economy is in okay shape and frankly handling 5% rates just fine right the FED is not restrictive just based on the consumption at least not as restrictive as they think they are so again pretty interesting uh what about PMI again PMI yesterday was was pretty weak we we talked about it yesterday it broke below the 50 Mark again 50 is contraction above 50 is growth it it's one of the first leading indicators that you and I are going to have to watch one month does not make a trend uh but it is one to watch because again PMI Services PMI manufacturing both were weaker than expected so it could be one of those first signs that maybe maybe things are getting weak but again we just have to be you know diligent and and watch that stuff going forward how about mortgage demand I don't know if you guys can put two and two together but higher rates lower demand sometimes it is that simple mortgage demand was down let make sure I get the number correct mortgage demand was down where' I write it man lots of notes today mortgage demand was down 1% purchase demand was or mortgage demand was down 2.6 purchase was down 1% again higher rates less demand I know sometimes it is that simple um let's talk about rent growth uh let's talk about rent growth apartments rent growth houses I will give you the top three markets for apartments and houses and I got to tell you I would not have guessed any of these let's do Apartments first number three for most rent growth Springfield Massachusetts up 6.3% yes folks rent growth is still out there Springfield Mass 6.3% how about rodchester New York Rochester New York up also 6.3% and the winner winner chicken dinner Buffalo New York Buffalo New York up 6.4% if you're out in any of these markets I'd be curious why why are they growing are are these like suburbs to other big markets uh are these you know towns that didn't have rent growth the last couple of years what is going on in Buffalo New York up 6.4% wow crazy well looks like somebody would have guessed it congratulations all right how about single family homes single it's weird right the number one apartments are the Northeast uh let's go single family homes number three Savannah Georgia Savannah Georgia up 99.9% again folks remember single family rental is different than multif family even though the experts want to put them together they are just not again Savannah J Georgia in third place at 9.9 almost three uh yeah three and a half% above Buffalo which was the number one apartment so again remember houses and apartments not the same thing Knoxville Tennessee Knoxville Tennessee into the double digits at 10.6% and then finally again I would have never guessed this number one single family rent growth in the last 12 months Chattanooga Tennessee shout out Chattanooga Tennessee coming in at 11.2% wow 11.2% so same question if you're in Savannah Knoxville Chattanooga tell me what's going on are these bedroom communities to other areas are employers going there what is going on I would love to hear from you um let's talk about anything else yeah I think again some of the earnings that we've got like CarMax and Rh Restoration Hardware RH we are starting to see that higher rates matter uh obviously CarMax relies on um lending for their cars RH do luxury homes we're just starting to see that higher rates matter and can shave off uh demand in interest rate sensitive things like cars and single families uh last thing I noted I don't know if you saw this that Oracle Oracle is moving their headquarters to Nashville initially when I read that article it was like oh wow Oracle is leaving California because again Oracle is right up the 101 in Redwood City for my house like 20 minutes uh I was like oh my God they're leaving California nope not true not true not true Oracle is leaving Austin little did I know that in 2020 Larry Ellison I didn't know this didn't hit my radar Larry Ellison moved oracle's headquarters from California to Texas in 2020 now he is going from Texas to Nashville wow what's going on so again based on the article Oracle has made some significant investment in healthcare I think they bought a company called Cerner uh a year ago or whatnot uh I think they're moving uh to Nashville to be more around the healthc care that they've made some big investments in at the end of the day folks do me a favor one more time go check out Financial firefighter on YouTube uh he had a we had a great conversation I was very vulnerable we talked about some cool stuff and UHD love to hear what you have to say like subscribe comment and if you're going to grow with video video video where' that come from video I will be leaving there leaving my home momentarily and I will see you out there take care have a great day you guys are amazing later
Comments 0