저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오는 현재가 2008년보다 더 큰 위기의 결정적 순간이라고 진단한다. 2008년은 은행 중심이었지만 지금은 은행 밖의 비은행 영역까지 위기가 번져 있고, 금리 인하 여력이 소진돼 중앙은행의 자산매입만으로는 효과가 제한적이라고 본다. 그래서 정부 부채 매입과 효과적인 재정 집행이 필요하다고 주장한다. 기업은 두 부류로 나뉜다고 설명한다. 하나는 캠벨 수프처럼 레버리지가 낮고 꾸준한 안정 기업이고, 다른 하나는 혁신 기업이다. 재무구조가 튼튼하고 변화에 잘 적응하는 혁신 기업이 큰 승자가 될 것이라고 말한다. 다만 이 게임에서 개인 투자자가 시장 타이밍을 잡아 성공하기는 매우 어렵다고 경고한다. 투자 원칙으로는 최근 잘 된 자산을 쫓는 것과 최근 부진한 자산을 버리는 것을 가장 큰 실수로 꼽는다. 부는 전체적으로 크게 변하지 않고 한쪽이 오르면 다른 쪽이 내린다는 점을 강조한다. 따라서 자산군, 국가, 통화를 분산해야 한다고 말한다. 현금은 변동성이 적어 안전해 보이지만 구매력이 연 약 2%씩 잠식되므로 대개 최악의 투자라고 평가한다. 화폐 체계가 흔들릴 경우를 대비해 금 등 일부 실물 자산을 보유하는 것도 생각해볼 만하다고 제안한다. 요약하면 넓게 분산하고, 시장 타이밍에 의존하지 말며, 현금의 위험을 의식하라는 메시지다.
다듬은 글
we're now at one of those defining moments that i've seen repeatedly yeah this is bigger than what happened in 2008. i'll distinguish it in in 2008 we had banks it's the same thing meaning you have a certain amount of leverage things go down too much leverage means you're broke in the counting terms so then you look around and you say who are the systemically important entities that you don't want to go broke because do you want to lose those banks at this time and then you can make up money and make up credit and you can keep them alive in some way and you did it with banks and through the banks there were the mortgages and that's what it looked like this is more complex than that because there are the banks and then there are those all of those that are beyond banks all of the little businesses all of those in all the different places that are beyond it and it's a bigger crisis and we have a less effective monetary policy because interest rates declines have reached their limit and just buying financial assets by the central bank and buying the normal financial assets won't work they have to buy the debt of the government and the government or the many governments have to be effective in getting buying power and production to those who need it around the world there are two types basically there are those uh that are steak stable meat and potatoes not leveraged kind of companies you know um the campbell soup equivalent you know like everybody's going to use them all time kind of thing and then there are the innovators the innovators like we're talking about marco you had marco on before and that new innovation those who can adapt well and innovate well and don't have balance sheet problems in other words they have strong balance sheets so they're going to be able to play the game without having that they will be great winners and so there's always new inventions new creativity that is the new adaptation that that becomes a company and an entrepreneur and they're going to do great plus this stuff that we're always going to need those are the things that are going to do great an investor must understand that they probably will not be able to play the game well they probably will not be able to decide how to move in and out of things in order to be successful in the markets is more difficult than um getting a gold medal in the olympics uh you wouldn't think about competing in the olympics but everybody thinks they can compete in the markets but there's more money competing it's like a zero-sum game and there's more money doing it and the worst thing you could do is be i think you can time all of these movements um if you could i guarantee you the game's a tough game to type we put hundreds of millions of dollars into the game every year and it's tough um so what the individual investor needs to do is know how to diversify well so the word that i would know how to diversify well and in a balanced way the greatest mistake of all investors is to think that what has done well lately is a better investment rather than more expensive and the greatest and what has done worse lately is the worst investment get me out of it and rather than it's cheap and unless you know how to deal with the differences of those which most people don't they're going to be in trouble so understand that wealth total amount of wealth in the world essentially doesn't change very much okay and that one thing goes up another thing goes down and to know how to diversify to diversify it in asset classes to diversify it in countries uh to diversify it in currencies to know how to diversify that well so that you have wealth diversifications important do not think that cash is a safe investment when you most people think look i just want safety and those bonds aren't given give me an interest rate and so on so where do i get safe cash is a seductive investment because it doesn't have as much volatility but it taxes you in your buying power about two percent a year and so uh and that so cash is almost always the worst investment so you have to think about that you should think a little bit unconventionally do you have a little bit of gold do you have a little bit of acid in case this monetary system breaks down and money's redefined do you have a little bit of that i can't get into all the different ways that one can diversify well i try to convey those things in my books or my or uh you know on post uh posts on linkedin particularly um but i but i would say diversify well be humble don't market time and be conscious of the dangers of cash
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