저자: Vince · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현 시점 넷플릭스·테슬라·팔란티어 중 팔란티어의 위험 대비 수익이 가장 좋다고 봄. 넷플릭스: 주가 하락으로 평가절하됐고, 제작사로서 확장성과 높은 이익률이 강점이라고 봄. 다만 실적 턴어라운드 전이라 피터 린치 기준으로는 부적합하다고 평가. 자체 DCF에서 성장률 10%, 이익률 보수적 가정 시 2025년 주가 470달러, 목표 연 30% 수익률 기준 매수가 160달러 제시. 현재 약 181달러. 광고 요금제와 계정 공유 유료화가 성장 촉매로 언급. 테슬라: 저평가 매력은 있으나 경기순환주 성격과 금리 인상에 따른 수요 둔화 우려 지적. 장기적으로 FSD·로보택시·에너지·AI 로봇 성장 가능성 언급. 장기 보유 관점. 팔란티어: 애널리스트 커버리지와 기관 보유가 적어 월가 미발굴 종목으로 봄. 연 30% 성장 가정, 주식 희석 3%, 영업이익률 25% 보수적 가정 시 2025년 주가 27달러 제시, 30% 수익률 기준 매수가 9.34달러 제시. 현재 주가 대비 큰 괴리가 있다고 강조. 다만 사업 이해도가 낮다는 점은 린치식 관점에서 약점으로 인정. 린치 관점 정리: 경기순환주 특성 이해 필요, 애널리스트 무관심 종목에 기회 존재, 회사 사업을 이해할 수 있어야 함. 본인은 팔란티어를 가장 강하게 선호하며 자금을 집중 투입 중이라고 밝힘. 리스크 언급: 넷플릭스는 턴어라운드 실패 가능성, 테슬라는 경기침체·수요 둔화, 팔란티어는 사업 복잡성과 밸류에이션 가정 민감도. 방송 내 면책 문구로 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
hello guys and welcome back to the channel so in today's video i got a very interesting idea i was thinking with the market being in this really bad shape uh and me recently reading peter lynch is one up on wall street i was by the way fantastic book really really recommend it if you have audible it takes a few hours to listen to definitely one of the best time investments that you will ever make so i was thinking how would he be thinking about some of the awesome names that i'm very interested in and would he be buying netflix now would he be buying tesla now and would he be buying parent here and what would he be thinking about here so if you like this content please make sure hit the subscribe button and you press the like button and yeah i want to walk you through these three companies and let you know what i think of course this is just these are just my thoughts it's not investment advice and let me know in the comments what you are thinking about these companies so we are going to take the first one netflix because i know most of you are here for pound tier so we're gonna save the best for the last so netflix is a very very interesting company i actually made a full valuation on the company you can get this table on our patreon it's the first link down in the description it's five bucks a month if you want to support the channel the reason why netflix is very very interesting is because it's a fantastic company i believe that there's so many people trashing on the company now that the stock price is falling it's so funny you know somehow people associate the stock price even peter lynch talks about this with the company and for example you take kathy woods and when her investment was going really good and arc was going up then she was a hero investor and now that the stock price is going down now she's suddenly a very shitty investor and it's the same strategy the same consistent lady and it's somehow the same with netflix that uh you know like when the stock price was blowing up then oh this was the best investment and the best innovative company in the nasdaq and i remember before tesla was the big thing netflix was the best stock on the planet and now that the stock price is falling out suddenly everybody seems to come out and yes we knew it and they suck at this and they suck at that and i think that people are really missing this i think that they have a lot of levers to pull i think people are really missing the point that they became a production company and they have had several hit films i mean squid games i don't need to list them off i'm sure that you know netflix hit films right and as they grow the subscribers if they would grow from 200 million to 400 million they wouldn't need to double their production costs and they wouldn't need to produce double as many movies so i think that they're insanely scalable they already have a very high profit margin yes they do have a slowdown and the moment they fix this slowdown they will be a shining shining shining company and the truth is that in this valuation i did with 10 growth per year on income and i made with them not increasing the profit margin which is a very very very conservative calculation because even management is guiding that the operating margin is going to increase they are saying that this year the revenue is going to grow i believe by nine percent but they're going to accelerate it you know way faster as soon as they introduce you know an advertising like a lower cost tier where you know they do advertising and as soon as they tackle the password sharing problem because apparently like there's 200 million paid subscription but there's don't quote me on this but like 80 million households only in the us who just share the passwords and are already using netflix but they're not paying for it it's a huge huge huge potential however peter lynch would not like this company because they have not turned around yet so this was actually very interesting for me to realize by the way i just want to show that based on this very pessimistic calculation in 2025 with the 25p obviously i'm supposing that they have solved the problem and they are you know growing again that's the only way that they can have the 25 p their stock price would be 470 dollars and you would get a 30 compounded annual return if the price was at 160 dollars currently the stock price is 181 and i believe it was a few days ago it was this yes somewhere here it was this target price this is when i would be very very interested however peter lynch in the you know one up on wall street book talked about that the way that you can have an advantage over wall street is that the annualists somehow don't want to take bets and for somehow if they lose money in apple and tesla they will not lose their jobs and they feel very safe doing that but if they do something new and something innovative like kathy woods and it doesn't go well then they will definitely lose their jobs right and he said that for example if you're a good year or you know you have a tire company and suddenly you see that everybody's taking good year and you know the inventor is very low and it's really going good for the product and you know you look at the company on the stock market and there's not a lot of analysts talking about it then it's a very very good time to buy and basically netflix it's a very intriguing company you know they came down to very sexy evaluation but they're still in trouble they didn't turn the ship around yet and i feel that for this reason peter lynch would not like this stock however i know peter lynch and i know warren buffett but the valuation has come down to such low levels that i don't know how much lower the price can go before it gets an insane risk reward ratio but in any case so i might be buying netflix here now let's go on to tesla so what would peter lynch think about tesla so i for some reason lost my tesla valuation from my computer and i can't get it back right now however tesla is a very very good company needless to say at a very very low i would say attractive valuation if you believe that they are able to grow their car production and they are going to come out with fsd and i think that this is something that is pressing down the stock price is historically and peter lynch is very clear about this that you need to know what kind of stock that you own and there is cyclical stocks and he specifically mentions that for example automakers they do fantastic on upcycles but they almost always go bankrupt on down cycles airlines are similar and the thing is that tesla has been on this insane growth uh trajectory and we know that i think they're sold out for more than a year ahead however if the fed is really really raising interest rates and the economy really really puts on the brakes is there going to be demand on the planet for three million more because they're already selling one and a half million is they're going to be really demand and money out there for selling four and a half million you know 60 000 or 50 000 average cost every asp cars you know and that is something that worries me you know however over the long term so this is let's say this is a worry in the next two three years but over the long term if you believe that tesla is going to make the full self driving then it's a fantastic company because you can actually be part of many many askers peter lynch loves the eskers and he wants you to you know get in somewhere here on the s curve and ride it all the way to the top and the thing is that tesla is somewhere here on the evs you know they're at the very beginning of fsd and robo taxi they're even more at the beginning of energy and then they just started on the ai robots so this company could be a company that if you're willing to tolerate risk you know you can buy now put it in a drawer for the next 20 years and who knows what you find there maybe generational wealth generation in this time the next stock is pound here this is my favorite if you watch this channel then you know that i'm all in on parent here currently i am sending more money out to the stock market trying to find money any way that i can and and obviously i got this question so would peter lynch like this stock so he would like this stock for many points he would really like that it's very little analysts covering this stock so that means that wall street has not discovered this stock he would love that there is a very small institutional ownership which again also means that wall street has not found the stock he would love how high growth they are they are at the you know somewhere at the beginning or on their ass curve because you know they they have this very big growth trajectory let me pull up my valuation so here's my evaluation which by the way you can access five bucks a month on palantir if you want to support the channel and play around with these numbers so as you can see i calculated with 30 percent year-over-year growth up to 20-30 obviously i'm very sure that they can keep it up to 20-25 and then i will reevaluate as we get closer if they can keep it to 20 30.
i am calculating with a three percent stock dilution and funny enough no i did fix it i i actually had a higher dilution number than they actually had because their stock dilution is actually normalizing and i counted with a 25 operating margin historically they have done better but they guided for a lower number in the next quarter and i do believe this is very temporary but i still want it to be very pessimistic and even with this calculation i got that in 2025 the stock price will be 27 and if i would like to have a 30 return the price would have to be at 9.34 and basically this stock is the one that has out of all the three stocks and out of all the stocks that i have analyzed on the stock market it has the best risk reward for many reasons one of them is that for example netflix has to turn around you know the company and you're betting on that they will turn around the company tesla has been a fantastic company but you're basically betting on that you know there's not going to be a recession and even if there is a recession it doesn't affect them and that they're coming out with newer and newer products right on palantir all you need is they just continue doing what they have been doing that's it like they don't need to change anything they just need to continue they don't even really need to come out with new products they don't need to i mean obviously they need to tweak and you know change a little bit but i mean that they don't need to go into a new business like tesla that they go from cars to ai robots and this takes out a lot of risk however peter lynch would not like this company he would probably not invest in parent here and that is for the reason that they're very hard to understand as in what they do peter lynch has a super big point on that you need to understand what the company does you need to like what the company does and i wish and i hope that palantir is going to change this and they're going to explain better what they do but this doesn't stop me from investing into pound there i still think that in this market it's a steal deal it's the best risk reward obviously no one knows what's going to happen in the future but i don't see any better investment right now let me know what you think in the comments do you agree with me would you buy these stocks what do you think about netflix i think that's my most controversial bet thank you very much for watching and i will see you in the next video bye
Comments 0