저자: LuisPinto · 외국인
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S&P500·나스닥 등 미국 증시가 8월 사상 최고치 부근이며 기업 실적 호조(S&P500 84개사 어닝 서프라이즈)가 배경이라고 설명. 마이클 버리는 1987년형 폭락 가능성을 언급하며 변동성 전략에 의한 레버리지 취약성을 지적, 엔비디아·팔란티어·마이크론·어플라이드머티리얼즈 등에 숏 포지션 보유. 화자는 버리의 수학적 관점 한계를 지적하며 폭락 가능성과 장기 상승 가능성을 모두 인정하는 중립적 입장. 중간에 P2P 대출 플랫폼 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
Guys, I'm still on vacation, so please excuse the image and sound quality, but I came here to make a video talking a little about August, what happened, and the truth is that lately the market has been hitting record highs, it's at its peak, and at the same time we have a very well-known person, Michael Burry, who became famous with the movie The Big Short, and who has said several times that the market was going to crash.
Sometimes he was right, most of the time he was wrong, but the truth is that the market continues to listen to him because he is a very experienced person, with a lot of knowledge, and sometimes he's right. I'm going to try to quickly analyze the current values, what's happening, what's coming in the near future, and why Michael Burry says we could have the same situation this year or next as we did in 1987.
As always, folks, I'm not a financial advisor, thank you for your support, if you're on vacation, I hope you're doing well, sorry about the image and sound quality. Let's go see what's going on here. So, folks, the S&P 500 is at or near all-time highs . In fact, if we look closely, in August the S&P 500 returned to levels it had n't seen since June, and the same happened with the Nasdaq, which also rose significantly, the Dow also rose, the Russell also rose, and everything seems to be at or near all-time highs.
What contributed to all of this? Two things, folks, first, the profits [clearing throat] of the companies, and pay close attention to this number, more than 84% of the companies in the S&P 500 reported profits that exceeded expectations, folks, and that's a big difference. We're not talking about a year that, from a financial standpoint, was good for most companies and very good for some; no, we're saying that out of the 504 or 505 companies in the S&P 500, 84 companies had profits above expectations.
Adding to all of this, the world—I've talked about this a little bit here, mainly on my Discord channel— the world is adapting to the realities it faces. The world has already adapted to the reality in Ukraine, is adapting to the reality of the Strait of Hormuz, and is adapting to not knowing how much oil will cost in a few years.
The truth is that right now oil is below $100. Meanwhile, the United States and Iran are saying there's an agreement, there's no agreement, they're close, they're far apart, whatever . It's politics, it's marketing, it's visibility, it's a narrative. What matters to us is figuring out where we're going.
Is the world adapting or not? Because the truth is this: if we look at the last few weeks and see the market at its highs, then nobody would say that there's a war in Ukraine, that Europe doesn't know what to do about immigration, that the United States is attacking Iran, that Hormuz is closed, that China is having energy problems, and many other things.
And note that in between , for example, the United States employment report arrived this month. And the private sector created only 44,000 jobs in July, when the estimate was 75,000, and in June they had registered 98,000. In theory, largely thanks to the World Cup. So the question is: without the World Cup, to what extent do we have a truly strong job market in the United States, at a time when inflation is showing no signs of decreasing?
And then, amidst all this apparent normalcy in the investment world, Michael Burry published a text in which he says, and I quote: "I continue to believe that we are probably near a major peak and that a 1987-style crash is possible." Notice that he doesn't say it will happen, he says it's possible.
Obviously, anything is possible. Now, when a person like that says that something may or may not happen, we give it some weight. And he adds, and I quote: "But the S&P 500 reaching new highs will likely bring new capital into the market." And now let's just look at one thing here. So, what exactly is he talking about with 1987?
He is referring to the crash of October 19, 1987, the so-called Black Monday, where the Dow Jones lost 22.6% in a single day. It remains the biggest daily drop in history. And how does Michael Burry argue this? He says the following: "Remember, a market that rises with falling volatility forces funds that target volatility to leverage themselves, bringing leverage into play from other momentum strategies." What does he mean by this?
The existence of gigantic funds that automatically buy when the market is calm, and that it's automatic, simply means that processes are completely automated. The more fear decreases, the more they borrow to buy, and the fear index, the VIX, is at incredibly low levels in August. This is taking into account that statistically, September and October are usually difficult months.
September usually sees a drop, in October the drop either continues or stabilizes, and November and December are statistically the good months to end the year on a high note. So, at this moment, it seems there is no fear, considering everything I 'm telling you. High inflation, and nobody knows what the unemployment rate is in the United States.
We have elections in November, and nobody knows if the Republicans will get the victory they want or not. In between, Ukraine, Iran, immigration, and many other issues. So why is there no fear? And what Michael Burry is trying to explore is that these positions can be reversed very quickly if the scenario changes.
This is the problem. And then the fall isn't gentle, it's brutal, it has to be. And this is largely the result of strategies that are, and Michael Burry has long been one of the world's biggest skeptics of artificial intelligence and this boom that's going on around it . And it's understandable. He notes that the demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure is fueled by funding agreements that, in reality, may prove unsustainable.
And I've already talked about this here, and it makes sense to look at it, but there's more to it, because Burry doesn't just talk, he stands by what he says. This part is important because it lends weight to someone who already holds a prominent position. He currently holds short positions in ETFs such as semiconductors, and also has positions in Micron, Nvidia, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, and Applied Materials.
Notice that he is short precisely on the stocks that he largely owns, and in this case, with the exception of Tesla, all of them have risen considerably. Applied Materials is a very important company. Micron and Nvidia as well. And I'm already continuing with this. Let me just pause here for a minute to introduce today's sponsor.
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I'm leaving a link to a welcome bonus for new investors, which is in the video description. And now, folks, let's get back to the video. Look at these points. Michael Burry is currently winning in all the positions he holds, except for one: Nvidia. However, Michael Burry has been shorting many companies for a long time, and many ETFs as well.
And it's worth noting what has changed. Why? Because there are shorts he's stopped believing in, but there are also shorts he simply can't keep or that don't make sense to keep, because there are other, more interesting opportunities. For example, he sold his shares in Microsoft. Closed short positions on Oracle.
It also closed put options for January 2026 on Palantir, but remains short on the stock. And more importantly, it renewed its put options on Nvidia for a downtrend until June 2027 and its short position on QQQ for February 2027, which is one of the major ETFs that tracks the Nasdaq. What does this mean?
He doesn't see this as a gamble that will only last a few weeks. He gives himself some leeway until 2027. And that makes sense, because no matter how much a person can guess about something, we ca n't guess exactly when something will happen. However, folks, there's a very important point here. Michael Burry has a different strategy, which doesn't mean everyone does the same.
Listen carefully, I'm going to read something he wrote that says: "Making shorts isn't for everyone. I need to make shorts. Most people shouldn't even do it." This is very important because, from the moment we enter a short selling strategy, we have to compensate, we have to balance things out, and we have to close some positions in order to open others.
Why? Because there are losses we can sustain and others we cannot . This part is very important. When someone like Michael Burry is short on this, that, or the other thing, it doesn't mean he fully believes in it. He may be taking a bit of a risk to support other positions where things aren't going well.
At the same time, Burry cited a very interesting statistic. First, the S&P 500 rose 5% in four sessions and hit an all-time high. And this has only happened three other times in the last 30 years. Pay close attention, when was that? 21/03/2020, that is, literally at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Another time this happened was on April 23, 1999, when the first dot-com companies began to collapse.
And the last time was on 9/11/2020. And at this time we were recovering from Covid. But there's a big "but" here. And this point was explored by many people who responded to him on X. One of them said: "Unless there's an extraterrestrial attack, in a bull market of this magnitude and strength, Michael Burry will see his short positions burn by 2027.
We are in a generational bull market that will easily multiply the results of dot-coms by 10. And this will continue well into the 2030s. Look, folks, I'm not the one saying this. This was said by someone from Vertical Research Advisory. It doesn't mean he's right. However, he's someone who has a vision and points to some of the things we need to talk about here.
Which is a radical change in the world. It's a generational transformation that will take several years. Some companies will fall. Some companies won't survive. Others will fall behind and be just average, getting the crumbs. Some will win. And those that win will dominate the world in the coming years, just as happened in all the great technological transformations we've had in the past.
And notice that Michael Burry himself..." He has already admitted that he is currently a kind of meme, always saying the market will crash, and then the market never does. Even so, he points to three times he was right: the year 2000, the year 2007 (when he became famous with the video), and 2019. Let's not forget one thing: in 2019 he had the help of Covid.
Nothing guarantees that without Covid he would have been right. So, folks, who is right? The people who say we are in a generational transformation, that we will create unparalleled wealth, and that in the next 8, 10, 12 years this will completely change and many people will make money and the markets will be at completely absurd values, or is it Michael Burry?
Ultimately, it's both. And this is the part I want to explore in this video. Even if Michael Burry is right about a crash—and he probably will be— if not in 2026 or 2027, it will be in 2028 or 2029. Markets crash because it always happens. That's right. Michael Burry is trying to profit from a possible crash in 2026 or 2027.
Which doesn't mean that the people who say we're in a generational transformation and that in 2030, 2030 and so on, we'll have a much higher market than now, are wrong. Ultimately, both are right. Michael Burry is right about a big crash in 2026, 2027, 2028. He has up to 2027, at least for now. But maybe the people who say the 2030s will be fantastic are also right.
Maybe they're all right. And what statistics tell us is that Michael Burry is right in predicting a crash, because they happen every x years. What statistics also tell us is that the market has always recovered and that, therefore, even if there is a crash in 2027, maybe in 2028, 2029, 2030, we'll have a market with much higher values than now.
Therefore, we shouldn't completely believe in the idea that things are always going up, nor should we completely believe in the doom and gloom that things are now going to fall 30 or 40%. We need to take it easy. We need to analyze. We need to be attentive and look at several factors that Michael Burry also can't analyze, because Michael Burry looks at things from a purely mathematical point of view .
And in that, he's fantastic. But he doesn't look at other factors that I, for example, also talk about a lot here: political, technological, social factors, massive adoptions. All of that helps the market go one way or another. There's no mathematical possibility that could have predicted Nvidia's growth four or five years ago .
But there's a whole technological aspect, an adoption, a social, political, technological, and business transformation that has made the world dependent on Nvidia. And Michael Burry doesn't see that. That's why sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong, because it's impossible, because it's impossible to see the whole picture.
And it's impossible to always be right. Guys, I hope I'm helping you. You have been helping. My The channel is growing. I hope to help you all with these videos too. Big hug, everyone. See you next time.
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