🚨 Can AI Justify the Hype? Jeremy Grantham's 70% Crash Warning Tested

요약 보기

AI 버블론에 반대하며 AI 인프라는 현금 풍부한 하이퍼스케일러가 투자하는 구조라 닷컴버블과 다르다고 주장. 최근 시장은 AI 대형주에서 중소형·가치주로 로테이션 중이며 투자자는 과열 종목에서 선별적으로 자금을 옮기는 중이라고 설명. 2분기 실적은 애널리스트 기대치 22~25% 성장이 높아 달성 확률이 낮아질 수 있고, 여름 중간선거 해 변동성 가능성 언급. 중동 전쟁·유가·채권금리 상승 등 외부 변수 주의. 12개월 전망은 낙관적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Investors don't run for an exit signal, meaning they sell everything. They are more strategic about where to invest that money if they feel that certain things are too expensive. We saw some rotation, didn't we? So, it all started with all the names of artificial intelligence growing, because the letters AI were simply attached to them.

02. And then investors started to get a little more picky, right? The history of artificial intelligence is a kind of next internet, the next industrial revolution . This whole thesis needs to be disproven, and I just don't see it happening. Anna, it's great to have you back, and I want to jump right into a question that many people have as we enter Q2 reporting season.

03. Artificial intelligence, is it a bubble? Is this a boom that is now going bankrupt? Because we have Jeremy Grantham saying, " Get ready for a 70% correction." But you say you don't completely agree. So help us understand what's next and whether we can still make money. Yes. I mean a market drop of 70% or more, or even close to that.

04. Um, and now, if we're talking about the S &P 500, a lot of these names are related to artificial intelligence, just because they've just gone up. Um, that means anything related to artificial intelligence, i.e. data centers, large language models, chips, whatever, the correlation should be up to one.

05. And that means everything must fail. The story of AI is kind of the next internet, the next industrial revolution , that needs to be disproven, and I just don't see it happening. Um, partly because we've seen progress in, um, you know, big language models like Claude and open AI, or Claude and Chach GPT, um, and use cases as we've seen people use it in different ways, productivity gains, and so on.

06. So this won't go away . This is definitely a real thing. Um, now the other thing is under the hood, you know, the headline index numbers, we've seen some rotation, right? So, it all started with the rise of all the AI ​​names because they just had the letters AI attached to them. And then investors started to get a little more picky, right?

07. So, um, there has also been some development in the field of artificial intelligence. Nvidia actually has a near monopoly on all GPUs, and now memory and inference chips , and now, um, a lot of people are making their own inference chips . So the industry itself is changing. I think investors are taking these specific names into account, their problems and positive aspects.

08. So we actually see some rotation within the AI ​​topic. So I don't see everything disappearing at once. So let me ask you about rotation, because again, for our clients, the question is how do I make money, and if they're like me, they panic when they react to headlines, which is a bad way to make investment decisions .

09. But is this rotation entirely technology-related or is it related to what we've been talking about recently about mid- and small-cap companies outperforming the S&P 500 and large-cap companies, but they're playing a major role in building AI infrastructure. So where is this rotation happening, and as an investor, where should I perhaps be paying attention?

10. Yes, no, let's not forget about the rest of the economy, because AI will eventually affect everything related to our lives, our work, and so on. So, you mentioned mid- caps, uh, mid-caps and small- caps. We have seen small-cap companies perform better since the beginning of the year. They outperform their larger competitors, and that's partly because they were undervalued.

11. I mean, we were talking about how AI-related tech stocks were, their valuations were so high, um, and those were investor complaints. So, you know, we've seen some reduction in these names, and the dollar is really turning, I'll say, on two thematic things . First, it's small- cap stocks that have been undervalued, and, you know, value-oriented names that aren't as growth-oriented , some things that are very boring, like industrials and utilities, energy, and so on.

12. So there was a certain rotation. Investors don't run away on an exit signal, meaning they sell everything. They are more strategic about where to invest that money if they feel that certain things are too expensive. So we hear a lot of comparisons to the dot-com bubble, which some of us are old enough to remember, 1999-2000.

13. Maybe I'll use a phrase that shouldn't be used. Maybe this time it's different? Oh, the famous last words. Um, you know, the internet. So, there are many differences. I'll just point out a few things. Um, well, first of all , there were a lot of companies that had very, very high valuations, not only because the stock prices had gone up, but also because there was no cash flow underneath them, right?

14. At the end of the 9th, this was very noticeable. This is not what we have today. People or companies that invest in AI infrastructure are cash-rich companies , and we're talking about hyperscalers. For a long time they didn't know what to do with their money, and now they're using it. Now they also take on debt, which is a whole different story, but that is one very important difference.

15. Another thing is, um, the internet, I remember sitting in my parents' living room on the couch with a laptop and creating a website. If I could do it, many people could do it, but I can't create artificial intelligence. I can't build data centers. And so, in terms of building the infrastructure and actually moving it forward for a very, very complex, ahem, artificial intelligence system, it's fundamentally different from, ahem , the internet bubble.

16. So I think it's just two things that are very different. Hmm, the computing power component, hmm, is also important because I don't think we as investors fully understand how much computing AI requires. Now developers like hyperscalers understand this because they see the demand. Um, you know, if we're not just talking about zeros and ones and HTML code that goes into a website and Java, we're talking about training an entire model to essentially sound like a human and think like a human, and then all these thousands of queries that you and I and everyone else are inputting into chatbots that require logical reasoning, memory, and so on.

17. These are huge amounts. And even if we're not used to such high investment figures as hundreds of billions of dollars, if we understand that this is the amount of computing required even to experiment with some AI developments... Hmm, I think if we understand that, the numbers seem a bit inflated. Maybe we're waiting for a return on investment, right?

18. But I don't think it's anything incredible. Well, well, I've had guests on Capital Empower who have mentioned that they don't think the ratings are high, but they're not out of control . So as we approach Q2 reporting season, should I be concerned about the expected 22% year-over-year growth ? I mean, we've said in the past that this is a high rate.

19. Is this sustainable? Hmm, you know, I mean, that's a big question, isn't it? Can we actually beat that 22%, and in some other areas I've seen profit growth of up to 25% year-over-year. Hmm, those are the high expectations that are built into this. Now, what we typically see during reporting season is that we have certain expectations from analysts, and the markets expect that, and we see companies outperform them.

20. So if we're talking about an index, I've combined the earnings, etc., and at the end of the quarter we have the actual earnings. We tend to have higher actuals compared to expectations. The higher the expectations, the harder it is to exceed them, and in this case, 22–25% is a fairly high figure. Can we achieve something like 27–28%.

21. And the probability decreases, the higher the numbers, the lower it is. So, you know, there's a chance we won't achieve these goals. If the indicator is slightly higher, a sell-off may occur. As for the sale, I’ve had guests say, “Look, the end of the second quarter, the summer of a midterm election year, is always volatile.

22. " Expect a downturn, but after the election, expect growth." I understand that the past is not an indicator of what will happen in the future, and I'm not even an asset manager, because they have to constantly tell their clients about it . What are your expectations for the second quarter? And what are you looking for in the third quarter, what should our investor clients pay attention to ?

23. Yeah, I mean, these patterns, um, you know, they don't apply to your point of view, meaning they don't always, they do n't always materialize. And we have, you know, artificial intelligence–that's one thing, but we also don't forget that there's a war going on in the Middle East , um, or military events, you know, that are happening, that are, you know, pushing, pushing up oil prices, pushing up bond yields .

24. There are a lot of things happening right now that may, you know, not fit the pattern that we're used to. So, I would say it's always wise to expect some volatility. And when valuations are high and things are a little slower in the summer , any minor external trigger can actually create an excessive, ahem, or, you know, exaggerated reaction, price reaction in the markets.

25. So it's always good to expect some volatility, especially at a time like this when there are so many uncertainties about the future. So I'll ask you one last question about the outlook. I mean a year, looking 52 weeks ahead. Are you an optimist, a pessimist, or a stoic, i.e. neutral? You know, I usually tend to be stoic.

26. Hmm, and that's because I'm a bit detached from the markets and I like to watch them. Hmm, but if I had to choose between a pessimist and an optimist, I'm an optimist. And I'm going to take a few steps back and get a little philosophical, which is, you know, even though there are a lot of challenges that we might see in the future, you know, markets and market participants and everybody who runs a business, their response and their incentive is to strive for a better outcome.

27. So, in my experience, even though there are a lot of things that you know can make us pessimistic, there's always a positive because people respond to it, people respond to it positively and strive for something better, and that usually makes me an optimist. But certainly over the next 12 months I'm optimistic because I think a lot of people are also working on AI, and AI is poised to change a lot of the ways we work and live, and I think that's positive.

28. And I would like to see how it would change, you know, productivity, new jobs that could be created, all of that, you know, I personally think it's positive.