저자: Jeremy개인투자유튜버 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상 발화자는 테슬라 실적 호조에도 단기 조정을 예상하며, AMD는 과매도 구간이라 $10 근처로 하락하면 공격적으로 매수하겠다는 입장이다. 테슬라: 3분기 실적이 애널리스트 예상을 상회해 시간외에서 약 10% 상승했으나, 변동성이 커 상승분이 $300 수준으로 되돌아갈 것으로 본다. 다음 날 장중 4~5% 반납을 예상하며, 중기적으로 $370, 다음 분기 무렵 $400 근처까지 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 자동운전차 공유(에어비앤비식 차량 대여) 기능이 가장 흥미롭고, 모델3 판매가 미국 자동차 판매를 거의 앞섰다는 점을 긍정적으로 평가했다. 다음 분기 흑자 유지 전망도 호재로 봤다. AMD: 4분기 매출 가이던스(약 14.5억 달러) 부진과 반도체 경기 둔화로 주가가 급락했으나, 2019년 신규 아키텍처 출시를 믿고 있다. 매출총이익률은 40% 수준으로 개선 중이며 영업이익·흑자 전환 등 펀더멘털은 양호하다고 평가했다. 최악의 경우 $15~14까지 밀릴 수 있으며, 그 경우 일부 추가 매수, 본격 매수는 $10 부근에서 하겠다고 밝혔다. 마이크론과 엔비디아 등 반도체 전반 매도세도 언급했다. 마이크론: 52주 신저가를 하회했고 자사주 매입과 높은 수익성을 감안하면 과도하게 저평가됐다고 봤으며, $10이면 강한 매수 기회라 판단했다. 엔비디아·비트코인 관련: 비트코인 하락 영향으로 GPU 판매가 약세이며 재고 부담이 있다고 언급했다. 엔비디아가 $100까지 밀릴 가능성, 그리고 $200 수준에서 일부 진입을 고려하겠다고 했다. AMD가 $200 수준까지 간다면 $5~7까지 하락할 수 있다는 조건부 시나리오도 제시했다. 리스크: 반도체 업종 전반의 매도 압력, 주식시장 변동성, 비트코인 가격 하락에 따른 GPU 수요 약화가 주요 위험 요인으로 언급됐다. 출연자 전망: 발화자 본인은 장기적으로 테슬라·AMD에 낙관적이나, 단기적으로는 테슬라 조정과 반도체 추가 하락 가능성을 열어두고 있다.
다듬은 글
hey guys how's it going what like I got my ass beat on AMD and I got an Tesla subtracts the world with their earnings they just blew past analyst expectations they were profitable and it was awesome and the stock didn't really move like moved up ten percent after hours I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow but it's good it's a good sign that's all I have to say but okay so quickly let's get to Tesla Tesla so I could I made a livestream the Tesla quarter three conference call if so you guys haven't seen it yet and you wanna see it on my channel check it out if you want to see it on like the internet like just look on Tesla's website you can also check it out on Tesla's website so it's the exact same conference call it was it was a very interesting it was okay you know Elon Musk you know he he's a very smart person but he's kind of like me he's not very good at public speaking this is least this is my opinion I'm not very good at public speaking but I still do it anyways because uh because it's like money so this is my opinion on myself I'm very critical of myself I always think that I'm not I'm not always never good enough you know but I gotta do it anyway so I'm out here talking to you guys yeah guys I thought it was a pretty good picture I made looks like a face kind of yeah like happy smile face to eyes the nose the moustache anyways if you want to hear more about about llamas check out Jeremy's channel he he goes into detail about Elon Musk and Tesla so it's interesting check it out if you have it I definitely recommend it so Tesla stock when skyrocketed ten Bessette does it deserve to be 10% I don't know like you look this stock has any like I mean yeah I guess it's pretty good it's nice if it's good for the stock to be up a lot but you know how volatile the my key right now is I think like those gains will just slip right back down to 300 this is my opinion though we'll see where things lead even though the financial is awesome that Corey puts awesome everything is our glamour I still think the stock is tanking back down to 300 just because the stock market is very volatile right now and people are desperate for taking profits so I don't know this I don't know the stock can rally the 370 maybe maybe by next quarter could be close to the closer to to $400 but my prediction tomorrow is you know it's probably gonna give back at least four or five percent of his games by the end of the day just my opinion we'll see the most exciting thing on the conference call I found was really exciting it's the fact that you'll be able to Airbnb your car so basically if you have a self-driving car you can you can rent it out to people make money while you're know doing something at work or whatever but you can rent out your car and that's really really really cool and you know that if self-driving is like all the crazy Tesla is going to be like the apple of the car industry in the future like according to the stats the model 3 out sells almost all cars in the United States by itself like that's crazy the so you know the and you know they're flipping a profit and next quarter they expect to be profitable still so that's awesome that they're gonna be profitable this quarter and next quarter that's really good news for the company I'm very bullish on that right no after that quarter report I'm very bullish on Tesla I'm just curious why Tesla like the accountant left the company I mean like if he knew the quarry part was gonna be good why would he leave the company maybe maybe it's true maybe he doesn't like the media attention cuz uh Tesla gets a lot of media attention and maybe he doesn't like it that's my only guess now let's talk about AMD how I got butt raped by Amy I watched the entire earnings car for AMD like it doesn't it doesn't look bad it sounds good like I have nothing to say the company seems to be on track for a very good 2019 so I don't see what's like I don't see what's wrong like I mean I think this I think right now because Amy's already gone down 9% on I guess October 24th and then it's gone back down they'd gotten down at 22% that means that it's giving give gives away at least 30% in a very short amount of time but if you look over the course of the month this not used to be $30 so this stock is in like extreme oversold territory I'm not saying that the stock can't go back down to $10 it can totally go back down to 10 in my opinion like I think it can it can go back down to $10 at this point I honestly would make a big big really big purchase into AMD because I still believe in the 2019 and right now like the entire semiconductor space is being sold off heavily so that's also the reason why Indy stock is being affected the main reason why AMD's next report is going to be bad I mean the reason why MD stock dropped so much is because the next quarter their fourth quarter points it's expected to roll in at one point four five billion dollars because the two problems problem number one was the semi conductor space sorry the semi custom chips the in the PlayStation Xbox they tend to ramp down in the fourth quarter they wrapped up in the third quarter and then they wrapped down in the fourth quarter and that's the reason why the revenue dropped because the the semiconductor space makes up a big chunk of that money and then another thing was Amy's graphics cards GPU cards they have declined like then they have way too much inventory and they're getting affected by Bitcoin so weaker graphics sales so I mean yeah that's Bitcoin is affecting mdn it's also affecting the video at least the GPU sales anyways but like if you look at the like if you look at the financial reports pretty good I mean they're like making 40 percent and gross margins 40 percent like last quarter was like 37 percent they were expecting 38 percent and they beat Anna's expectation by 2 percent since the next quarter the main revenue stream is gonna be CPUs that uh the the gross margin is gonna go up even higher so that means that they're gonna make they're gonna generate more money that's very good you know because the semiconductors the semi-custom chips they have high revenue but low margins so by by by the semi-custom going away the margins will increase and AMD expects that they said that this quarter is the lowest gross margin call recorded they're gonna be ramping up the gross margin as the quarters go by four for 2019 and you know that's really good to see a company girl grow their gross margin so the company's on track of growing the company and their profitable they've been profitable for a while they the operational income was 150 million dollars they were they're profitable by 13 cents so no like they're profitable then they used to a year ago they used to be in the negative and now they're profitable so I mean still because the the whole semiconductor space is kind of selling off right now in these kind of enjoy the long of it I say worst-case scenario the stock drops to ten dollars you know if it drops down to like fifteen fourteen dollars I probably add in my add in a position but the bigger the biggest position I'll probably add in is when the stock goes at ten dollars because I think I think the stock is not oh the rally is not over for the stock I think that you know in 2019 when the new architecture the new products come out if the stock is at ten dollars I would be a big buy a $10 because I think I ten dollars the stock is dirt cheap I mean I guess it could go back to two dollars but it wouldn't make any sense the company's profitable it wouldn't make any sense for the stock to be under a ten billion dollar market cap like at ten billion dollars it's already so cheap he used to be a thirty billion dollar market cap now I was like a ten bill it lost like two-thirds of its weight if the stock drops down to ten dollars so at that price I'm gonna be a big buyer into AMD stock because I think I could like at least double my money in like the short term in 2019 so I'm hoping for that $10 price tag so I can be adding a lot into my position that's my that's my plan going forward I'm you know so I'm hoping that drops down to $10 it might not but I'm hoping because there's a possibility it could drop down to $10 like and then you also looked to like the semiconductor space is just like it's been selling off this is a big semiconductor company I don't know what they do but according to some YouTube videos this is one of the big ones and song off micron is also a big one to micron is selling off massively they already went below the 52-week like their 52-week low I mean it could drop back down to ten bucks would make it a screaming buying opportunity because a ten bucks if the stock goes back to like 60 bucks you could literally six times your money that's a that's really good but I don't know it will ever have a rally back like this again but I know the stock could possibly go back down to $10 there's a possibility maybe like at $10 will be extremely undervalued it's already extremely undervalued at $35 me like even $30 would be very under that I don't know there's like a lot I mean micron is very profitable and they're buying back shares so I I don't know I don't the self is not really justified the company seems to be extremely undervalued the p/e ratio is ridiculous this is mass panic selling for tech stocks right now like even the video is suffering really bad like after hours already down seven dollars in 11 cents it's like reaching its all-time low right now so like this just massive sell-off in the tech sector but you know new video is justified it's round up so much that I think it could tank back down to a hundred bucks just saying it could I mean anything's possible in the stock market you can't say that this rally it's gonna continue forever no stocks tend to fall back so there's a chance the stock could fall back to $100 I might be a buyer $200 I might get my toe into the videos water into Nvidia what if Nvidia goes back to $100 what would that make AMD actually you know what honestly that's kind of scary to think about it in the video goes $200 I think indie can go like maybe back to like seven dollars or five dollars maybe I don't know Lucy anyways uh thanks for watching guys I hope you learned something from this subscribe for future updates and give me a thumbs up if you like this video see you later
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