저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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영상은 Bill Ackman 발언으로 소개되며 미국 주택시장이 2024년 붕괴 위험에 있다고 주장한다. 근거로 주택가격의 투기·레버리지 주도 상승, 2008년 서브프라임과의 유사성, 미국 공공부채 약 35조 달러(GDP의 160%), 연준의 금리 인상 전망(최소 5%), 중위 주택가격과 소득 격차, 저소득층과 고소득층 간 부의 격차 확대(상위 20%가 자산 88% 보유)를 제시한다. 주택 구매자·투자자별 대응 방안도 함께 언급한다. 다만 자막에 나온 여러 수치와 사례(COVID 변이, 지정학 갈등 등)는 자동인식 오류 가능성이 있다.
다듬은 글
data showing mixed signals in the housing market. Starts fell in December for the first time in 4 months by a little bit dragged down by a drop in new single family home construction. Is the housing market at risk of a crash in 2024? Bill Aman thinks so. Find out why the influential hedge fund manager sounds the alarm and how you can protect your investments in our latest video.
The US housing market has been experiencing rapid growth since the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, which low interest rates, high demand, and government stimulus have fueled. According to the S&P Core Logic Case Schiller National Home Price Index, the average home price in the US has increased by 113% since its lowest point in February 2012, reaching a record high of $395,000 in September 2023.
However, Aman believes that the housing boom has turned into a bubble which is not sustainable and is vulnerable to a correction. He argues that the housing market is being driven by speculation, leverage, and irrational exuberance rather than by fundamentals, affordability, and income growth. He compares the current situation to the subprime mortgage crisis that triggered the 2008 crash and warns that history might repeat itself.
One of the main factors that Aman cites as a catalyst for the housing crash is the looming debt crisis in the US. He points out that the US public debt has reached a staggering $ 35 trillion or 160% of GDP as of October 2023 and it is projected to grow even further due to the massive fiscal spending and stimulus programs enacted by the government to combat the CO 19 pandemic and its aftermath.
Aman warns that the US will face a debt crisis in 2024 when it will have to roll over its short-term debt, face higher interest rates, and lower demand for its bonds. He predicts that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise its benchmark rate from the current range of 0.25 to.5% to at least 5% by the end of 2024 in order to curb inflation, defend the dollar, and attract bond buyers.
He also anticipates that the Fed will taper and end its quantitative easing program, which has been buying $120 billion worth of Treasury and mortgage back securities per month since March 2020. Aman contends that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy will have a devastating impact on the housing market as it will increase the cost and reduce the availability of mortgage financing as well as dampen consumer confidence and spending.
He estimates that a 1% increase in the mortgage rate could reduce the home price by 10%. And that a 5% increase could wipe out 50% of the home value. Aman has identified several factors that contributed to the housing crash. One of these is the supply demand imbalance and the inventory glut in the housing market.
According to Aman, the housing supply has been restricted due to factors such as the lack of new construction, low inventory of existing homes for sale, conversion of single family homes into rentals, and the moratorum on foreclosures and evictions imposed by the government during the pandemic. Aman argues that the housing demand has been artificially inflated due to low interest rates, high savings rates, pent-up demand from the pandemic, demographic shifts to the suburbs and rural areas, and the FOMO mentality among buyers.
Institutional and foreign investors have also played a role in boosting the housing demand as they have been buying homes as an alternative asset class and hedging against inflation. Aman predicts that the supply demand imbalance and the inventory glut will reverse in 2024. the Fed's rate hikes and the debt crisis will continue the demand and increase the supply of homes.
He expects that new construction will pick up, existing inventory will rise, the rental market will soften, and the foreclosure and eviction moratoriums will expire. The institutional and foreign investors will also exit the market as they will face lower returns and higher risks. Additionally, Aman highlights the affordability crisis and the income gap in the US as the third factor that caused the housing crash.
According to him, the median home price in the US has risen faster than the median household income, making home ownership increasingly unaffordable for many Americans. He cites a report by Atom Data Solutions which shows that the average wage earner in the US could not afford to buy a median-priced home in 63% of the counties in the third quarter of 2023.
Aman argues that the affordability crisis and the income gap are exacerbated by the unequal distribution of wealth and income in the US which has been worsened by the co9 pandemic and its economic consequences. He refers to a study by the Pew Research Center which shows that the wealth gap between the richest and the poorest households in the US has widened to a record level in 2020.
The top 20% of households own 88% of the total wealth, while the bottom 20% of households own only.1% of it. Aman predicts that the affordability crisis and the income gap will lead to a social and political backlash in 2024, which will hurt the housing market and the economy. He expects that the government will impose higher taxes and regulations on the wealthy and the corporations as well as implement more populist and progressive policies such as universal basic income, Medicare for all and student debt forgiveness.
He also envisions that the public will demand more accountability and transparency from the financial institutions and the regulators as well as more protection and assistance from the government. The housing market can face several challenges in the coming years according to Aman. One of the risks is the CO 19 variance and vaccine resistance in the US.
Although the US has made significant progress in containing the pandemic through rapid vaccination and public health measures such as wearing masks and social distancing, there is still a possibility of a resurgence of the virus in the future due to new and more contagious variants or vaccine hesitancy.
These tensions are expected to escalate in the coming years as the US and its rivals compete for global leadership and influence. This could result in reduced global trade and investment, increased tariffs and sanctions, disrupted supply chains and markets, and heightened uncertainty in volatility, which could impact the housing market and the economy negatively.
Bill Aman, a well-known investor, has offered some practical advice on how to prepare for the housing crash and the opportunities that may arise, addressing his advice to different audiences, including homeowners, renters, buyers, sellers, investors, and policy makers. For homeowners, it is recommended to lock in a low fixed rate mortgage.
Refinance their home to lower their interest rate and monthly payment. Pay down their mortgage principle if possible. Save and invest their extra cash in a diversified portfolio. Avoid taking out a home equity loan or a reverse mortgage. And consider selling their home if they're planning to move or downsize in the near future.
For renters, it is recommended to save and invest their money in a diversified portfolio. negotiate a lower rent or a better lease term with their landlord and wait for the home prices to drop and the mortgage rates to stabilize before buying a home. For buyers, it is advised to do their homework and research on the housing market and the economy.
Set a realistic budget. Get preapproved for a mortgage and lock in a low fixed rate if possible. Inspect and appraise the home before buying it, and seek professional advice and guidance from a reputable real estate agent, a lawyer, and a financial planner. For sellers, it is recommended to sell their home sooner rather than later, price their home competitively and realistically.
Stage and market their home effectively, disclose and fix any defects or issues with their home, and seek professional advice and guidance from a reputable real estate agent, a lawyer, and a tax accountant. For investors, it is advised to short the housing market and the related sectors. Buy put options or inverse ETFs on the housing market and the related sectors.
Hedge their long positions in the housing market and the related sectors. Diversify their portfolio across different asset classes, countries, and currencies, and be contrarian and opportunistic. For policymakers, it is recommended to reform and regulate the housing market and the financial system, balance their budgets and debts, coordinate and cooperate with the Fed and other central banks, address the affordability crisis and the income gap, and address the CO 19 pandemic and its variance.
Bill Aman's warning about the housing market is a sobering and compelling analysis of the risks and challenges that the market and the economy will face in 2024. Aman argues that the housing market is at risk of a crash in 2024 which will be caused by a debt crisis, a Fed rate hike, a supply and demand imbalance, an affordability crisis, a CO9 resurgence, and a geopolitical conflict.
Aman also offers some practical advice on how to prepare for the crash and the opportunities that it may create for different audiences such as homeowners, renters, buyers, sellers, investors, and policy makers. And that's it for this video. We hope you enjoyed watching it and learned something new. If you did, please give this video a thumbs up and share it with your friends.
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