저자: ZTraderDorian · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 발언(금리 인하 폭이 장기적 의미는 작다)을 인용하며, 연준의 25bp 인하는 경기 연착륙 효과가 제한적이라는 입장. 고금리 장기 유지가 자산 가격 리셋 후 더 건강한 경기 회복을 가져온다고 주장. 미국 고용 지표 신뢰성, 서민 경제 악화, 소비 여력 축소를 근거로 제시하며 연말 전 시장 조정 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
hello guys welcome back to Z Trader So today we're going to look at this article so R alio has published some of thought on the FED cut for the upcoming fed cut and um today I would like to read um the whole article and then I will put a little bit of my comments on his thought so okay do C's quarter point fed cut is right thing for creditors so he said half Point move would help mortgage borrowers question over size of cut won't make difference in Long Run brid Water Association founder Ray doio said the overall picture of the US economy probably warrants a smaller interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week the FED has to keep interest rates high enough to satisfy creditors that they are going to get a real return without having them so high that adaptors have a problem doio told blumber television corresponded h l Amman in an interview in Singapore on Wednesday whether it's a 25 or basis 20 or 50 basis point 25 basis point would be the right thing to do if you look at the whole picture doio said on a sideline of The amican Institute Asia submit 2024 if you look at this Market situation which is worse and that's effects more people then probably to 50 basis point the FED is widely expect to low interest rates later Wednesday after holding borrowing cost at a two decade high for more than a year investors and forecasters I'll split over whether you will cut by a quarter percentage point or a half Point as officials seek to bring the economy to a soft Landing B Delio said that what the FED does this week doesn't make a difference over the long term I think it's such a silly bet 25 to or 50 he said policy maker will ultimately need to keep real interest rate low to enable the servicing of mountain deps he added Doo isn't the only financial luminary to express ambivalence about the F policy J Morgan Chase and Cole chief executive officer Jammy Diamond said whether the central pack C cut rates by 25 or50 base point the move is not going to be Earth shattering they need to do it Diamond said at a conference on Tuesday but it's a major thing when a Fed raising rate and lowering rates because underneath there is re real economy okay so overall I have three thoughts first of all I totally agree with what Ral have been saying okay so who am I I'm not like I'm just a small hedphone manager or or just say a dumb YouTuber who very occasionally upload videos from time to time but I seriously agree what Ray Delio's comment on the upcoming fit cut and the Wall Street is trying to portray the upcoming quartero fed cut as the only solution from Heaven to save the economy and you see some um like mainstream media financial institutions saying that okay 50 you know you have a 50 basis point cut and how how is that going to help the economy it looks like the FED because we we we were talking about this for a long time you know we we talked about this we talked about high delinquency rate of debt we talked about huge amount of debt in the US economy system we also talked about student long we talked about how high inflation and high interest rate environment will end up damaging the fundamental of US economy but then this happened we see labor market weakening we see a lot of recession signals you know taking place so we see mainstream media flashing light and telling us if we have a 50 basis point cut or maybe a 100 basis point cut these wouldn't be a problem and then what we are still seeing more recession signals we're seeing uh we're seeing student loans having problem we're seeing you know like B releasing job data but that was and later revised uh 8 88,000 okay that was a huge number all right you you you cannot um make a slight mistake just by you know overprint that label number so that's crazy it's like it's faking the number guys so this is what the Democrat have been doing country contributing to the US economy system they try to F lies and you they feed you with more lies they lied about uh you know Joe Biden's health condition they lied about you know his consistency becoming the US president and now they're lying about the job data and economy figures they're lying about the BRS data they're lying about the fact that you know like the IM like illegal immigrants are taking over the local American's job so they wouldn't tell you the truth so once they seeing okay you have a bit you know bad signals maybe CPI gone out a little bit maybe CPI is becoming more resilient and maybe the job market is has weakening so we have to lower rates just in case okay just in case so we are uh cutting rates to prevent a upcoming recessions you know make making it sound like you know like so very POS sound like a cliche sound like they're doing one h of the job for the W economy I mean look at all these nonsense all right we are now having an interest rate environment trading at 5.25 basis point uh F sorry 5.25% of interest rate to 5.5% right we we are here right it's it took took us nearly a year to raise the interest rate uh to a point where we have nearly like five six interest rate environment and now if you're cutting this down you're say you're aggressively cutting rates by 100 basis point that you're making it you're forcing the economy back to where 4% but it's still higher interest rate compared to the QE phase right back in the QE you know phase we had great time all the assets are just coming you know like all the assets keep going up like people are happy because they foreign YK uh their asset keep improving right the the value of their assets keep climbing so everyone's happy but as a matter of fact you see like you know people who are not actively trading American Stock or holding American stocks these people we are talking about you know like humble workers we're talking about people doing humble jobs working in restaurants maybe doing all these you know public servicing they are not necessarily related to finance sector or technology sector these people are being left over right these people are not enjoying all these amazing 401K these people are not enjoying these people do not own house they do not own stocks so technically speaking when you know the president's talking about how the S&P is you know creating a new high these people are not making a single dime for fors so you cannot equalize you cannot you know like just say if the stock markets keep climbing and that means a good and strong economic fundamental that is essentially wrong and second I would like to uh address that I I I do agree with like R Doo uh to see um you know like if a quarter point F card it would be kind of helping um to ease out the pressure out of mortgage payers but you know the problem is how much if these we're talking about you know um you know people who would like to buy house by paying for houses these people are paying like 5 to 6% of mortgage rate really crazy mortgage rate and these people are paying same amount of rate for your student loan so by cutting a quarter point would create an anticipation or expectation of the interest rate you know you have a rate cutting kind of phase maybe potentially the banks will give you a better deal compare uh with the mortgage rate right now but that is not you know like that's not that's not going to be the game changer because the fundamental is still going to be weak people are still paying for interest rate people are still having less cash to spend because of the inflation right because everything is so expensive people now have less money to spend even though some people may claim they are making money out of American stocks but these that just you know you can only withdraw this money when it comes out when you you have to sell the stocks to get the cash so the point would be if one day people are short in cash people do not have liquidity people would be forced to sell their stocks or forc to sell their houses to meet their with their cash requirements on daily basis because they no longer have cash the revenue of the companies keep shrinking you see more recession signals coming and you see all these you know bad economic signal worsening economic fundamentals and they therefore you're going to see less cash injected to the economy system so that's what's that's what's basically gone wrong in the US economy system right now okay that's a big problem so I don't think quarter point fed card um would be a big game changer okay so the last thing is um I don't see I actually I do not see um a quarter point fed cut is the right thing for creditors so I would you know dis you know disag agree to some disagree and also I will keep some of a room open because um I I think from my point of view that I think um if if the FED would remain the Remain the interest rate much higher that just say 8% or maybe 9% you are you're what you're going to see is you're going to see a reset on asset price you're going to see a recession but then you're going to see a if if the government has done right it could be a good beautiful the leveraging process so once it is done I think it would you know easily for easier for the US economy to really re boost for another economy cycle so it would be a good thing it would be painful in the short run but it will be much beneficial in the longer run so I I guess that's the case so that's why um I'm always a strong uh supporter of having a rate higher for longer so I from my opinion from my point of view I do not think that you know having a rate cut so early so urgent would be helpful for creditors or for the US economy fundamentals and I do not see this is the ultimate method or the game changer that could change the ought to or to prevent the recession from coming what we are probably going to see by the end of this year is that the mainstream media is going to blame Donald Trump they're going to blame um the elections they're going to blame um everything about you know elections about creating this volatility that you know slamming the market you know making the market so vulnerable right so they will stop uh talking about recession and all thing they will blame it all on the upcoming election by the end of this year and we're probably going to see huge Market correction from from Leon so thank you guys for watching if you like my video please subscribe and you can leave the comment below or you can choose to join our like International uh investor community so thank you for watching I'll see you in the next one goodbye
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