저자: MichelleMarkey · 외국인
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주가가 사상 최고치인 시장에서 저평가 종목을 기다리는 심정을 밝히며, 버핏·멍거의 명언을 빌려 인내·합리성·역량범위 내 투자를 강조한다. 시장 과열 지표로 버핏지수(시가총액/GDP 약 235%, 정상 100~120%)와 실러 PE(약 38, 평균 15~16, 닷컴 버블 수준 근접)를 제시하며 현재 시장이 평온해 보이지만 위험 신호가 쌓이고 있다고 본다. 밈주식과 암호화폐 열풍을 과열의 신호로 보고, 버핏의 '남들이 탐욕스러울 때 두려워하라'는 말을 인용해 현재는 두려움 쪽에 서 있다고 말한다. 단기 매매(FOMO)를 경계하고 '10년 보유 못 할 주식은 10분도 보유하지 말라'는 원칙을 강조한다. 버핏이 애플 투자를 늦게 한 것을 후회했다는 사례를 들며, 기술주에 대한 편견을 버리고 본질적 가치를 봐야 한다고 말한다. 2021년 버크셔 주총에서 버핏이 S&P500 인덱스펀드를 추천한 점을 짚으며, 역량범위 내 소수 종목 집중(멍거)과 분산투자 사이의 모순을 언급한다. 지성보다 정직성·근면·신뢰성, 지속적 학습, 독서와 사고 시간의 중요성을 강조한다. 인내가 미덕이며 부를 서두르지 말고, 손실을 피하는 것(버핏 제1원칙)이 결국 부로 이어진다고 결론짓는다. 구체적 종목에 대한 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았으며, 전체적으로 현 시장에 대한 조심스러운 경계론을 편다.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and today i'm going to talk about as i'm waiting for stocks to go on sale and with markets at all-time highs like the dow jones s p 500 and nasdaq all at their recent all-time highs to me it's a little bit exasperating because there are so many companies that i'd love to buy but i'm not able to right now because i feel like they're overpriced and even though i should be happy that some of my current investments are highly priced and probably overvalued i'm not because i'm irked waiting for stocks to go on sale so i'm a little bit frustrated but i'm trying to draw from some buffett and monger quotes to tide me over what do you think about current market conditions i'd love to hear from you in the comments below and i'd love if you could please like and subscribe because each of your likes helps youtube to share my video with others who are on the quest for worldly wisdom and i greatly appreciate it thanks right now to me feels kind of like the calm before the storm because it's summer and everybody's having a good time and we're enjoying life again as restrictions have been lifted but then it's sort of like there's a hurricane far out in the caribbean and none of us are thinking about it but maybe it's going to make its way up through the northeast corridor and then maybe we'll be hit by that at some point but until that point happens there's no need to really flash any warning signals and it doesn't help when looking at the cnn fear and greed index it seems to be showing where it's averaging maybe some of the hyped companies and zombie companies into what they would just consider neutral or in my opinion it's just meh but to me that's not very convincing as to what's really going on and i look at indicators that are to me flashing red like the buffett indicator where we're at 235 percent of market cap to gdp so it's been on a frightening uptrend of being at more than double the amount of full price that buffett normally considers to be a fully priced market at around 100 to 120 and then with the schiller pe that's supposed to average in normal market times around 15 or 16 it's actually coming in right now at 38 which is just about 6 pe away from the dot-com level so with that also inching up ever so slightly these days it's concerning to me of what might be coming and so i try to heed what buffett has warned about in that be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful and right now i'm all about the fear with a lot of meme stunk and crypto action going on it leaves me thinking that a lot of people are sipping the bubble-ish is kool-aid and i've got a couple of buffet quotes about this in that beware the investment activity that produces applause the great moves are usually graded by yawns and price is what you pay and value is what you get and i think there's a few securities that i feel lucky to be able to buy each year and it takes a lot of conviction to stick with unpopular and contrarian ideas and the willingness to ride a wave of wisdom versus hype i've got a trio of buffett quotes that gives me the strength to resist the temptations of fomo and they go like this only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years or if you aren't thinking about owning a stock for 10 years don't even think about owning it for 10 minutes and the last one our favorite holding period is forever so that's what i try to bear in mind that i resist doing any short-term buying because the payoff isn't likely worth it and i'm better off waiting until i have the right opportunity to deploy my capital into investments there's another buffett quote that reminds me of committing a double fault in tennis where we fail to get the ball over the net when serving and even though serving a ball is so obvious and straightforward sometimes we have mental and emotional lapses that cause us to make unforced errors and this is similar to buffett's quote where he says there seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult like i should have been willing to invest in something like apple much sooner but for years i resisted the idea because somehow i always thought that apple wasn't living up to my standards despite the fact that i've been using an iphone for the past decade and that i've been using the same ipod since 2008 and it's a wonder that that thing is still alive 13 years later so i've under appreciated the wonderful business that apple has been and i regret not buying into something so obvious and simple much sooner in life and my lesson is to not be so spoiled and not over expect things out of tech because i'm the type of person who isn't that impressed by the latest and greatest innovation so it takes a little bit for me to believe in tech being legit enough but i was unnecessarily handicapping myself during the 2021 berkshire hathaway annual meeting buffett said that he recommends the s p 500 index fund and that he would never recommend berkshire hathaway and i think that he secretly wants berkshire hathaway to be a little cheaper so he can buy back more shares so maybe he's trying to get more people to buy the index so that the greater majority of people are sort of off his tail and that he can quietly buy back berkshire but also i think in buffett saying that he recommends the s p 500 index fund that's sort of contradictory to what he said in the past in that diversification is protection against ignorance it makes little sense if you know what you are doing and why diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing but also to add to that charlie munger long-time business partner of buffett also has some important words to say about diversification in that he thinks that it's much easier to find five than it is to find 100 stocks to buy and he thinks that people who argue for all this diversification by the way he would call it diversification and he thinks he copied it from someone and he's way more comfortable owning two or three stocks in which he thinks he knows something about and where he thinks he has an advantage so i like to try to bear that in mind too when it comes to not over diversifying the equities that i choose to hold in the meantime while there might not be a lot of stocks on sale we can still work on improving ourselves and i love how charlie and buffett have shared the following quotes that i think are so helpful and key for all of us to bear in mind and work toward and they include how charlie said i constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest sometimes not even the most diligent but they are learning machines they go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help particularly when you have a long run ahead of you and buffett said we look for three things when we hire people we look for intelligence we look for initiative or energy and we look for integrity and if they don't have the latter the first two will kill you because if you're going to get someone without integrity you want them lazy and dumb and also charlie said what do you want to avoid such an easy answer sloth and unreliability if you're unreliable it doesn't matter what your virtues are you're going to crater immediately doing what you have faithfully engaged to do should be an automatic part of your conduct you want to avoid sloth and unreliability so i think having integrity the drive to learn and being reliable are the key traits that help people be successful in life one of the key qualities that's helped buffett and monger be successful throughout their whole lives is the concept of knowing what's in their circle of competence and especially what's not in their circle of competence and i covered this concept in my very first youtube video so i encourage you to give that a look if you're interested in learning more about the concept of circle of competence and i love the following charlie quotes in that he said confucius said that real knowledge is knowing the extent of one's ignorance aristotle and socrates said the same thing the survivors know knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant and he also goes on to say it is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us and he's referring to buffett and himself have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid instead of trying to be very intelligent and i feel like every day i gain a little bit more in self-awareness that helps improve my decision making because the choices i make become more visceral in a positive feedback loop that then helps me to improve the actions i might take next time and i try to be like charlie munger and that i just try not to be stupid if i don't have to be so often in business we think that we need to be constantly active and have meetings all the time but that isn't necessarily productive meanwhile buffett insists on a lot of time being spent almost every day to just sit and think that is very uncommon in american business i read and think so i do more reading and thinking and make less impulse decisions than most people in business and i've personally found that the more i've cultivated quiet reading and learning time that my work output is of much higher quality thereafter as well as i didn't used to enjoy reading and i started changing this in my mid-20s when i felt the desire to self-improve that in order to grow i needed to be willing to read so i also coincidentally didn't enjoy eating salad until my mid-20s either so it turns out that i started improving way more in a lot of respects as an investor and a human being by just being willing to read and learn when charlie munger said those of us who have been very fortunate have a duty to give back i took that to mean it's important to stay grounded and to practice gratitude and that we don't all have to be super rich or that wealthy but if we have the means and time to be able to help others we should pay it forward and help people in any way possible and that's what i'm all about in doing this youtube channel and please feel free to hit me up at my instagram because i'd love to talk with you about anything in investing or personal finance and i sincerely want everybody to improve their financial situation in life and it gives me no greater joy than to try to share some of the wisdom that i've gathered and for it to be able to help other people because i believe that what i've learned from buffett and monger has helped me in so many ways and i think that it can help a lot of people so again feel free to slide into my dms if you want when we're younger we might lack a little bit of wisdom and not be fully able to embrace the notion that patience is virtue because we're trying to get rich quickly and i know that i couldn't wait to be wealthy but then as buffett told monish fabrai a disciple of the way that buffett and munger invest he said that we were not in a hurry to get wealthy we knew it would happen and he said that rick graham was just as smart as us but he was in a hurry and i used to be in a rush to become wealthy and much like rick warren i got burned by trying to be in a rush to riches so i stopped doing that and just tried to stay patient and keep my head down and work hard trying to be the best investor that i can be as well as buffett said that the stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient so i kind of also like to think of this as in the tool song the patient where it says just gonna wait it out and be patient and finally buffett likes to say that rule number one never lose money and rule number two never forget rule number one and so that's the ultimate reminder that the more we're in a rush to try to make money the more likely we are to lose it rather than make it so by kind of flipping things around and cultivating the virtue of patience and also working hard to not lose our money while investing that ironically or paradoxically we end up becoming wealthy in due time there are so many more amazing buffett and monger quotes that i could go on and on but these are some of the key ones that i'm hoping will tide us over until our favorite company stocks go on sale someday and if you enjoyed this video or learned something please like and subscribe and i wish you well on your journey to also being the best investor you can be till next time
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