저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 장단기 금리 역전은 이번에는 경기침체 신호가 아니며, 올해 미국 경기침체 가능성은 낮다. 금리 역전에 대한 해석: 2007년 이후 처음 발생한 역전은 주목받을 만하지만, 금리곡선 형태를 결정하는 요인을 보면 경기보다 유럽 상황과 연준 등 시장 기술적 요인에 의한 것이다. 지나친 공포가 스스로 경기둔화를 부를 수 있다는 자기실현적 우려에도 선을 그었다. 경제 전망: 미국 경제는 올해 2.5~3% 성장이 가능하며, 강한 노동시장·실질임금 상승·기업투자 회복이 근거다. 감세 효과는 약화되지만 정부지출 증가가 이를 상쇄한다. 정책 실수(연준 또는 셧다운)가 없다면 경기침체는 어렵다. 글로벌 성장: 세계 동조 회복론은 근거가 없으며, 미국은 성장하고 유럽은 1% 정도에 그치는 등 성장이 갈라지는 상황이다. 불확실성이 크다. 연준 정책: 연준이 2019년 금리 인상 중단 등 급격히 비둘기파로 선회했고 시장이 이를 반기며 인하 기대가 커졌다. 그러나 정책 선택권을 이른 시점에 포기해서는 안 되며, 점도표상 올해 인상 1회 정도가 컨센서스라는 언급이 있다. 출연자 전망: 미국 경제 성장률이 2019년 컨센서스를 웃돌 것으로 본다. 대상 자산에 대한 개별 종목·지수 가격 전망은 없음.
다듬은 글
I'm looking at your most recent piece and we're all we don't wanna get too arcane with the yield curve but in the past there have been times when it was a harbinger of something not so great you sound like FDR there's nothing to fear but fear itself with the yield curve because you say if anything does happen it'd be self-fulfilling it'd be because people looking at the yield curve caused the slowdown that at this time it's probably an exception to the rule in presaging a near-term recession yeah so it's understood I understand why people worried about it when something happens for the first time since 2007 people pay attention and that's what happened on Friday when you got the inversion yes however when you look at the economy on the one hand and also when you look at the determinants of the yield curve shape and move this is not signaling recession this is signal goes some very peculiar technicals in the market that have to do with what's happening in Europe that have to do with what's happening in the Fed rather than what's happening in the economy this economy unless it gets disrupted by a major policy mistake it's on its way to two and a half to three percent growth for this year and a lot of that you base on just the strength of the labor market which you don't see necessarily weakening anytime soon yeah this is a strong labor market we continue to have average monthly wage drop Croatian well above what you would expect at this time of the cycle you're having real wage growth and people are coming back into the labor market business investment is picking up that's good news for this year and next year and yes the effects of the tax cuts are eroding but against that government spending is increasing so put it all together this still has momentum this economy still has momentum for this year there's no way you're gonna get a recession you make the point that Fed miscues and the government shut down both resulted in the inverted yield curve or partly are responsible for the the long in yields going down one growth come from even a year ago to pessimism on growth it caused the yield curve - yeah I mean a year ago people were in love with this concept of a synchronized global recovery and I came and said there's nothing synchronized about it it's the coincidence of four unrelated things and it doesn't have legs we are in a divergent growth scenario the US will outpace others Europe will be lucky to get 1% growth and therefore the global growth outlook is uncertain now ad of that are self-inflicted wounds and people started really worrying about growth in the US hey Mohammed you make the point that you don't think there's any way we face a recession this year but the markets forward-looking it's been looking for that recession just around the corner for a long time now how far out can you see and I just wonder just because we don't hit a recession this year does that necessarily mean that the market trades higher so I say absent a policy mistake cuz we can get a policy mistake and we should talk about the feds dramatic u-turn I mean it's really as dramatic when it's done in three months but absent that policy mistake is very hard to see a recession this year and next year now I understand people who say this is already the second longest expansion is gonna be the first in a while but it hasn't been a great expansion mm-hmm so so no I don't see I could tell that stretches it out yeah what would what would qualify as a policy mistake in this scenario when the Fed is essentially sidelined itself for 2019 do they have to I mean look the market is building in some kind of expectation of probabilities of a cut this year yeah I mean give the market something the bond market particularly to celebrate and ask for more yeah that's exactly what happened last week it got surprised by how dovish the Fed was and it we prize to make the Fed even more dovish after that and that's typical market behavior my concern Mike is that we swung too much in one direction last year when the Fed guided towards for rate hikes and delivered for weight hikes I always fell three and stop and watch and now we've swung the other way I wouldn't give up policy optionality so early in the year I just wouldn't do it there's lots of uncertainty it's not clear how this divergent growth is gonna play out it's not clear how the Fed will reconcile a stronger US economy that says hike versus a weaker global economy that says don't and I certainly wouldn't have given up the optionality both on weights and on the balance sheet so I guess we should say that at least on paper the consensus is for perhaps one more rate hike this year right so we maybe the Fed would say what we haven't fully given up optionality no but the dots migrated South India right to make the market comfortable not just with the notion of nothing this year but you may even get a rate cut I decide yesterday to a 60% rate yeah but yeah the Euro dollars yeah yeah you're above the consensus on GDP growth for this year well above two and a half to three percent you think I guess everyone is we always look around us to see what the future looks like and they're like they're sort of extrapolating this week first quarter to the whole year and and that the narrative is it was a sugar high the tax cut etc so what do we do this quarter and then how do we accelerate all the way to get somewhere two and a half to three percent what what do you say we grew at last year What's Your Number Four last year I think we grew in just over three two point I'm paying I got it look I got to go to dinner with Austan Goolsbee which you know second prize was two dinners with this guy all right now okay so I got I'm paying because he says it didn't hit three percent you just said over three well we're gonna see the revisions this way I mean you're gonna see what what it is should I not pay off on him for an excuse for you I don't I don't want to eat vegan food I don't think I don't know what to order on the menu with with bulls bait at this point okay but no but seriously how are we gonna get back okay do you think two and a half is the lowest will do this year I think we'll do two and a half to three look there's no doubt that the one-off effects of the tax cut stimulus aware enough against that you have other things coming into play and the consumer is still why is it wearing off or no just like the same store sales being flat or something because it what helped businesses keep more of their you know after-tax dollars it's it's happening again this year why is it why do you wear off it was a one-time event you have to effect you have the business investment effect which I said businesses will go up but you also had the consumer effect now remember you measuring the Delta over the previous year okay so when you move to a higher level you don't get the Delta year-over-year that that's why it wears off you
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