저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 금리 인하를 고려해야 하며, 올해 증시 상승 여력은 제한적이라 단기 트레이더라면 무역합의 뉴스 후 상승을 팔 것을 권한다. 연준 정책 평가 - 2018년 12월 금리 인상은 장기채 금리(10년물 약 3.25%)를 보면 실수였다고 평가함. - 현재 연방기금금리(2.40%)와 10년물 금리가 거의 같아 장단기 금리차가 사라진 상태임. - 연준이 이 상황을 인식했다면 12월에 인상하지 않았을 것이라고 봄. - 이후 연준이 매파적 발언을 했다가 시장 급락 후 후퇴한 것도 실수로 지적함. 경기 및 실적 전망 - 올해 1분기 성장률은 1% 안팎으로 예상되며, 작년의 약 3분의 1 수준임. - 2분기·3분기 회복(2~2.5%)은 확실하지 않다고 봄. - 실적 기대치는 여전히 높다고 판단하며, 과거 두 자릿수에서 7~8% 수준으로 낮아졌지만 달성이 어려울 것으로 봄. 증시 전망 - 금리 하락이 주가에 일부 도움이 되나 큰 폭의 상승은 제한적이라고 봄. - 연말까지 주가 상승폭은 약 5% 정도로 예상함. - 현금 보유 대비 주식 배당수익률이 여전히 매력적이라고 언급함. 미중 무역합의 관련 - 무역합의는 이미 시장에 상당 부분 반영되었다고 봄. - 합의 발표 시 주가가 5~8% 급등할 가능성이 있음. - 다만 이후 실적과 열기가 식으면서 추가 상승은 어렵다고 봄. - 단기 트레이더라면 무역합의 발표 후 상승분을 매도하는 전략을 제시함. 리스크 - 장기채 금리가 낮은 상태가 지속되면 경기 둔화 신호일 수 있음. - 실적 하향 조정 및 성장 둔화가 주요 위험 요인임. 출연자 장기 성향 - 평소 장기투자 옹호자이나 이번 발언에서는 단기 매도 전략을 언급함.
다듬은 글
it's December when they raised the funds rate to 240 the ten year was that three and a quarter and everyone thought it was going up I think if they had known I the fact that the tenure dropped to 240 is a game-changer had they known back then that the long mon would be at 240 I don't think they would have raised in December it makes no sense for the Fed Funds rate 3 exactly the same as the 10-year bond so you it should be lower you think there's a 2% or so you think the Fed made a policy mistake in December and now he's gonna be harder than wind it now well I mean they can unwind it uh-huh I mean I don't think I know you do but you say yes or did you say no but I think it's you think they did a mistake I thought they made him well they made a mistake of raising it and then they made a terrible and sinking the statement that came out that sort of implied they were to keep on raising in the 2019 which they walked back immediately when the markets collapsed but the move itself was a mistake if they had known the long bond was 240 in March they would never raised it to do 40 they wouldn't have flattened the curve they know the you know the history of flattening the curve so my feeling is oh my god Lee we thought the long bomb would be 350 by now we'd have 90 basis points 200 basis points we're not flattening the curve turned out after the fact they flattened the curve yeah so they made this big dovish double down now so what's a stock investor to do well I mean I mean the the bottoming at 240 is a boost but you know take a look at growth this first quarter it's gonna be about 1% maybe 1/2 I mean that's a third of what we had last year is it really gonna are we sure it's gonna pick up in the second and third quarter are we really going to get you know two percent two and a half I mean you know I think earnings are going to be the challenge I mean I agree with what Steve said I think that earnings expectations are still too wide I mean we brought them down from what double digits down to 7 or 6 I don't know what they are now 8 my feeling is it's going to be tough meeting though got 20/20 by the way I don't know if you looked at 20/20 crazy 13% up from you know 2019 that doesn't make sense in the economy either I'm not talking about a big break in the market because with if the long bonds are 240 again where do you go but let me tell you some people said I'm going to cash to 40 I'll take the 240 in cash no no venture t risk higher than the dividend yield right now in the SMB you know in this sort of a world that ain't bad that's why I think if the Fed went down to 180 190 they'd get a little bit of a curve boost over there and things would be lit more better are you saying this is fatal I'm just telling you what the situation but are you saying that the gains are in for the year at best I think we're maybe up five percent the rest of the year most of the gains are in maybe a slight upward tilt I think the market staying up because I think everyone expects a you know no one wants us to be stored when it went ray when Trump announces the deal with China and that's clearly a deal with China is priced into the market so everyone's scared aren't gonna be short because the markets gonna shoot up five six seven eight percent but then I think the bloom is off the rose I think then well let's look at her earnings who are they really up oh okay and enthusiasm are going to is going to wane at that point again you don't get it you're not gonna crack the market on when the long bonds at 240 but it's gonna be hard to move really forward in a major way professor I'm confused by what you just said you said at one point that the China deal is all in the mark but then you said it could move up yeah 90 okay pop it will pop we're gonna get a five six seven percent move if he says we made a settlement I agree that everyone's gonna say okay now what about her but that's why people are afraid I think to be short because they think an announcements coming on and as a result I think the market is sort of being held up by the fact we're gonna get good news from Trump on this trade deal and I think there will be good news you'll blow my goodness you know I don't want to be short through that I know but you're also suggesting we forget about earning your say you're suggesting that you would fade the pop that you would get from a trade deal because that would be the piano I would I would I would sell the pop I would say if I'm a short-term trader I'd sell the pop on the trade move move in my opinion and you're gonna get a pop I may be wrong on that I'm you know I've as you know I'm a usually an advocate for long-run investing but everyone's interested in the short-run I think that that might be a trade on that pop you
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