저자: AndyStopLoss · 외국인
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미국 증시가 최고점 대비 약 18~20% 하락한 상황에서, 기술적 지표(RCI 과매도, MACD, 이동평균, 컨코르 등)를 근거로 조정 저점 매수 기회라고 봄. 20% 하락 시 약세장 전환 가능성은 낮다고 판단. 본인은 현금 비중을 대부분 줄여 매수 중이며 추천이 아닌 개인 관점이라고 강조. FED 금리 인상 회의(수요일) 이후 반등 기대.
다듬은 글
Good afternoon, everyone! How are you all doing? Today is Monday, the party starts again, and what a beating we're taking, folks! The US markets are getting a tremendous beating. The CUCQ is now down 272%, and it doesn't seem so bad because just a little while ago it was down 5%. I mean, a beating not seen since the Corona Crash.
And of course, the question is, what do we do, man? I 'm getting a huge beating. My entire portfolio is in the red. And if you 're in Argentina, you see the portfolio in pesos, which isn't so bad because the dollar is rising, but don't lie to yourself, that's in pesos. In dollars, which is what we should always measure, the beating is monstrous.
And if you're watching from abroad and you work in dollars because you invest abroad, the beating is monstrous. And always, I'll tell you that there's a very well-known saying, a very well-known phrase in the stock market: "You go up the stairs slowly, step by step, it takes 1000 years to go up, and you go down by elevator at a totally dizzying speed." And that's it.
This is what we're seeing in particular in the QQQ, which is the one I'm going to show now because today is VCH Monday, today is Fun Monday, folks. So, well, today there won't be any Mercado Libre and Globant charts. Should I show Shapa or not? What do you guys think? Well, I'm going to show a bonus for those wondering where, where, what is this live?
Who answered you, Andy? It's recorded. But hey, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade. We have to add a little humor to this because otherwise it's enough to make you cry. And of course, I've been saying for a while now, take profits, stay liquid, take profits, go liquid, liquidity. Cash is King, the market also says, liquidity is king, it's what rules.
Well, and this appears as a buying opportunity. HM, I don't know, let's see, let's see first if it's a buying opportunity from a technical perspective. Obviously, this could continue to plummet, who knows how far. And on the other hand, if indeed the indicators are also giving me a buying opportunity, look, in principle, we could see this whole area here that It was sponsored at the time of its all-time high and it was hard to surpass it.
If we establish a trend line, look where it is now, it's right there, which doesn't mean it will stop. This could continue straight ahead, and this whole drop is also related to the fact that the Fed will be meeting on Wednesday and will be announcing the rate hike. At least, that's what is expected.
That's what the market believes will happen on Wednesday. We have to see what the Fed does, obviously. From now until Wednesday we don't know, but in principle, that's what is expected to happen. So, if that does happen, well, Prado is already there. Yes, Prado is already there. The market anticipates it, and one could say, " Well, that's the reason for such a beating." No, that's not the only reason.
If one looks at it from a medium- to long-term perspective, we were in the area of all-time highs. It had risen quite a bit; it had to adjust a little. In fact, let's look at it from a monthly perspective as well. Notice that this blue line that originates here in 2009, which is getting closer here, but not It touches it here, yes, it touches it here, yes, it touches it, it's still far off.
No, if the market feels like correcting, it would be very painful, but even if it corrects to that point, it didn't break anything because it continues to maintain this upward trend. So, going to that blue line, and now let's see more closely again how much further it would have to go if it feels like going down to that point, it's a total destruction of value, gentlemen.
And it would still be bullish in the long term. This is so you can understand, understand that this is n't enough of a beating yet, and there could be more. I mean, we have to be very careful. The drop is of minus 15%, which is a market correction. Yes, it's no longer an adjustment, it's no longer a pullback, it's a market correction.
Let's remember that a 5 to 10% market correction is considered a minor correction, 10 to 20% a market correction, and more than 20% is considered a bear market. So what we have to keep in mind is, and with today's move, it reached... Look, from this all-time high, it reached 18.64, I mean... Excuse me, we'll adjust it there.
There it is, 18.24. I mean, a market correction, I'd say almost violent with the speed it had. Now it could continue to fall. Yes, it could continue to fall, up to the next support levels, which would be $300, $271, and then the blue line. That is, it could continue to fall up to a 40% correction. Yes, but it's considered that more than 20% is the beginning of a bear market.
So here the question to resolve is: do we see that this could turn into a bear market? Do we have enough reasons to justify a bear market? Look, in principle, what is a long-term bullish trend of more than 10 years should end. That is, the bullish cycle should end with a celebration and euphoria in the markets.
It should end with extraordinary gains, and no one should be afraid that it will weaken, and I don't see that now. Therefore, up to 20% I consider a market correction, and more than 20% shouldn't happen. It shouldn't fall, and it has already fallen almost 20%. So, from a technical perspective, and from the moving averages and the downward trajectory, we are already...
We should be in an area where it shouldn't go any lower. No, now it should be. They took him to jail, we already know, and in the stock market nothing is certain, obviously. But if we look at the indicators, we have an RCI in oversold territory. It doesn't usually go this low. Look at the previous corrections, where they went.
Here in October 2018, which was also a 20% correction of the Sampi, it reached this level, but then, not even with the Corona Crash, did the RCI go as low as it is now. No, the RCI is also telling me, and look, much more. I don't know if I'm going to go down. The MACD is also telling me, look, where are the moving averages?
Only the Corona Crash is beating it. Because afterward, it's not usually this low, the moving averages. So the MACD is also telling me, and look, it seems to me that we're already doing well, right? Look at the MACD histograms. Look at the level they are, and look at how high they were during the Corona Crash.
I mean, it's already violent, but you're at a limit. And the Concor, look, where is the Concor? It's not even like the Titanic, I mean, it's directly, directly in the... And here you have the Corona Crash, which didn't even reach that low, and the correction here. Well, 2019 and 2018 didn't. I mean, we have previous violent market corrections, and we're at the same level.
So the Concorde is also telling me, and look at these prices. It seems to me that they are an opportunity, guys. Two Sigma Men 5%, meaning it moved too far away from its 21-period moving average in this case. So everything I see in the QQQ wouldn't justify it continuing to fall. Now, if it were to surpass the 20% drop, which is part of the probability of what could happen—I don't think so, but it could happen—if it loses 20%, it stops being a correction and becomes a Bear Market, and that Bear Market could take us all the way to the blue line, and even if it reaches it without breaking it, we would still be in an upward trend that started in 2009.
I mean, this is crazy! Isn't it crazy to think that the entire index, the stock market, could still fall another 20%, and that would still be a trend? Long-term bullish, I mean, totally crazy. But for those of us who are more short-term, 20% is the limit, and as long as you don't lose 20%, these drops and the limit, as you're seeing from the indicators side, well, I think they're buying opportunities.
So, well, it's just an observation, and it's my view, not the truth. Always remember that, well, I'm buying, folks. I mean, I've already gone shopping, I'm burning through the liquidity I have from bonds, and I'm taking, I can't even tell you how much I 'm taking. I think I only have 5% liquidity left.
I mean, I had almost 60% liquidity before this take-off, this violent correction, started. I mean, last week I already started taking little by little, on Friday I took more heavily with the Netflix drop, and today I kept taking. I mean, today I burned through about 20% of my liquidity, and I have five left, which I said, well, I'll leave it just in case, to see if it keeps going down a little more tomorrow before the Fed meeting, we'll see what happens.
No, but it's already done. The market's bouncing quite a bit, huh? Look what it's doing. So, this is the QQQ, how was it? Let's say I dedicated a lot of time to Goku, so I'll go a little faster with the Big Tech. We have Apple recognizing the 150 EMA, and from there it bounces back. It's still in a short- term uptrend with an RCI near oversold, the MACD also in an interesting support zone, and a Concorde below the sea, or rather, a negative Sigma.
I mean, all signs that indicate these are interesting prices to enter Apple. Yes, with high risk, obviously, as you know. Amazon is near this blue line, which has to do with this support. It has to do with... let's go back a little further, let's do it from a weekly perspective so you can see it better.
It has to do with this support here, that support there, the one I was marking, and now it's in that zone, that is, it's in a dynamic support that started in 2008. You see if that support isn't interesting, which doesn't mean it won't break it, but it's in an interesting zone that, on top of that...
We have an RCI at 19.50, I mean, this is crazy, it's in a support zone, and a Concorde is way below sea level. I think these are really good buy prices, huh? Amazon is always high risk, huh? Because the market trend is clearly downward, and it's a knife falling point-first. Facebook is holding here, the 0618 Fibonacci retracement level had been broken, but now it's recovered.
And we have an RCI that, well, hasn't reached oversold territory yet, but it's there. And a MACD that's there, and a Concorde in the middle of the sea, so these are also interesting buy prices for Facebook at this point. Yes, I mean, really very, very interesting. Google is the same. Clear downward trend, below all the moving averages, I mean, it's falling apart, however, we have it in this support zone at 2431, it reached it, bounced before, we have it kind of in the middle of the sea, huh?
I mean, hey, there's no support here. Where are you? Well, we'd have to see what happens, maybe some Fibonacci retracement appears floating around somewhere, maybe hidden. We're in the middle of nowhere with Google. But we have a negative double Sigma, meaning it's very far from its 21-period moving average.
We have an oversold RCI, a MACD also in support territory, with the moving averages very low and the COR below sea level. Forget it, these are Google prices, which is like a country, a stock. Eternally bullish, it's for taking Microsoft. Well, look at the case that left a tremendous recovery, truly tremendous.
Microsoft, which is also below all the moving averages, meaning it's bearish. Basically, the balance sheet is coming. This is balance sheet season, right? Let's see what happens with those balance sheets: RCI in oversold territory, MACD in support territory, COR below sea level, and a negative double Sigma.
Give me, give me, I'm taking a truckload of Microsoft. I took a ton of Microsoft, give it to me, it pays good dividends anyway. I'll leave it in the dividend portfolio. That's something to always keep in mind. Let's move on to the bonuses: Mercado Libre, which is still bearish and recognized the value I've been telling you about, the 960.
It still has A little more and it wants to go down. But these prices are already good prices with a negative two Sigma, with a good RCI that can still go down. The MCD is also good, and Concord isn't in the sea, it's still good. Mercado Libre, while it might be tempting, could also go down a little more, I mean, it's not on sale.
It's nice, it's cheap. Yes, but I do n't know if it's on sale. Globant is another very interesting bonus here. How it recognizes this support at 21469 has to do with this support zone here. There's a lot of interaction in that zone, it recognizes it, it bounces. And we have a distance to the 21-period moving average of 14, with a two Sigma of -330, meaning very far from the 21-period moving average, which means it could bounce and could go up.
The RCI is almost oversold, the MCD is quite low, but well, it could go down a little more. The moving averages are quite low, and Concord is in the sea. I also find this stock super attractive at these prices with extremely high risk, we already know that. Netflix, well, you're getting a real beating, Andy, stop the...
Yeah, folks, I bought here before the balance sheet to see how it would perform because it was already taking a beating. I took a 25% hit, okay, triple. What position did I have? TR and something like that, and I reduced it to 10% of my portfolio in Netflix. Of course, the -25% left me with -9, more or less.
And today I took another hit, another one, another one. Let's say it's bouncing a little now. I don't plan to put more than 10% in the same position in my portfolio anymore; it seems excessive. I'm waiting for the rebound to start selling and getting out. But well, let's see what happens. No, it 's up 40% to the 21-period moving average.
Only up to the 21-period moving average. Well, let's see what happens. Hopefully, the market will help with RCI, which I've never seen in any stock in my history since I started investing, at 962. Crazy, folks, crazy. We have a MACD that's also... Look where the 46-period moving average is! And a Concord...
Look, look at these mechaz! These volumes for sale are tremendous, tremendous. Well, Netflix, you know, in my case I'm not going to sell it at these prices, not even if you paid me. I'm not selling it to you at these prices. But anyway, buying more? I'm not buying more. Now, if you have n't bought Netflix yet, I think these prices are great for getting in.
Envy, another one that's bouncing here, the 2087.25, which has to do with this high zone here. It hadn't reached here, it stopped there, then interacted a little and then left. No, uh, that support isn't very solid, but it's a support that at least recognized itself today. Below all the moving averages, we have a 21-period up to the 21-period moving average, two negative Sigmas.
So it's not usually that far away. RC in oversold territory, a GCD quite low, and a Concor in the sea. So, the truth is, it's also a buy, without a doubt. In fact, I'm doing it. And finally, Tesla, which recognized the 200-day EMA, I've also been buying Tesla there at the 200-day EMA with an RCI that could drop a little more, be careful.
Magd, which is quite low, is interesting. A Concor is almost at sea, meaning Tesla is also with extremely high risk, obviously. These are very attractive prices to buy. So, what I 'm seeing from both the US market and the Big Tech stocks is that, technically speaking, at least from my perspective, it shouldn't go much further.
Maybe it will go even lower, maybe I'm wrong, maybe it will break all these support levels and we'll enter a bear market. I mean, if it goes any lower, this will stop being a correction and become a bear market. I mean, forget it, the party's over. So, I don't see enough reasons for that to happen. I could be wrong, obviously, from my perspective, and in fact, that's what I'm doing.
It's not for you to follow me, it's not for buying, these aren't buy recommendations. What I'm telling you is simply what I'm doing: buying at these prices. Yes, buying at these prices, for me they are bargain prices, without a doubt. And we're waiting for the rebound, which hopefully will happen today before the market closes.
It's only 3:25, or if not, why not tomorrow, or maybe there will be We have to wait until the Fed speaks on Wednesday, and then we'll have other news, another perspective. Besides, financial statements will be released this week. So today at 6 PM is the financial statement party; we'll see how they're coming along.
Well, that's all for today's video. I hope you liked it. If so, and this is your first time watching, subscribe to the channel, hit the bell icon, like, and comment on the video— that helps me a lot, too, obviously. And folks, see you tomorrow on the live stream at 2:30 PM. Don't forget, bye! Bye, anlos, the sense is anlos, é is anlos, eres an el
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