저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 금리 인하만으로는 사람들의 외출을 늘리기 어려우며, 시장 회복의 관건은 금리보다 코로나19 감염 추이다. 코로나19 충격과 Fed의 대응: 미국 경제의 펀더멘털은 여전히 강하지만 코로나19가 진화하는 리스크를 낳고 있다. 금리 인하는 소비자 심리나 자산효과에는 도움이 될 수 있으나, 사람들이 외출하게 만드는 근본 해결책은 아니다. 수요 충격 우려: 소비자가 집에 머무르고 주택 활동이 멈추면 수요 충격이 될 수 있으며, 이는 Fed가 금리 인하로 대응하는 상황이다. 모기지 금리는 아직 과거 수준보다 높다는 점이 언급됐다. 금리 인하 논쟁: 비판론은 Fed가 대통령의 압박에 굴복했다는 시각과 여력을 아껴야 한다는 시각으로 나뉜다. 연구 결과에 따르면 제로금리에 가까워질수록 탄환이 있을 때 일찍, 강하게 대응하는 편이 낫다는 주장이 있다. 스티브(출연자)는 이 관점을 옹호하며, 공급 차질과 소비 위축 가능성 때문에 Fed가 위협으로 보고 있다고 설명했다. 시장 기대치: 3월 회의 전 이례적으로 회의 외 인하 가능성이 거론된다. 시장은 3월 말 계약 기준 50bp 인하 확률을 약 60%, 25bp 인하 확률을 30~40%로 반영했다. 7월 전 100bp 인하, 추가 양적완화, 제로금리 가능성(JP모건 언급)도 논의됐다. 주시 지표: 금리보다 감염자 수 추이가 기업·학교·정부의 셧다운 규모를 결정하므로 가장 중요하다. 주가 상승 중에도 소비재 사재기 등 실물 변화를 살펴야 하며, 캐터필러 등 Dow 종목이 시장을 흔들 수 있으나 공포 외에 실질 영향은 제한적일 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 금리 인하 효과는 제한적이고 감염 지표가 핵심이라는 쪽으로 보인다.
다듬은 글
the fundamentals of the US economy remains strong however the corona virus poses evolving risks well look if the Federal Reserve was also able to make people go out that would be something that matters this is what does this it moves the stock market so maybe people feel better or there's a bit of a wealth effect but this is a lot scoop crisis it's terrific the J's on board he can do everything you can but in the end why go out I guess they're trying to preempt a so more market pain which you say they can do that at least they're doing that right now we'll see that last and - you know if what if this really is a demand shock like if consumers stay home if housing activity completely stops and we don't know where it's going but that is the problem that is something that the Fed responds to with lower rate we know mortgage rates are actually still above where they were when the tenure was it - okay we also know that the problem is if you've got something that allowed you to get out of the hospital we had a back seat anything then you won't need this rate cut but the more important thing is is that we need people to be able to stay at work you know there's a lot of people been working on but there's another group of people if they worked at home it's deadly and I want to see what the I want to see what the claims are yeah Steve Steve you still with us what about the critics or a certain I would assume to say well this cuts their ability to really respond if the economy tanks and we have a recession and those who also say given the president's relentless badgering of the Fed that they are knuckling under to his desires I'll take the latter one the Fed is not going to respond to that as you know David they've been trying to sort of put blinders on and do their job as they think they ought to do it I think they wish that the president wouldn't do what it's doing I think that this act comes irrespective of the president's wishes here on the first question I understand that point of view I think it's a legitimate point of view I will offer you the other side David which is that the research done since the financial crisis suggests that as you get closer to zero when and if you have bullets to shoot you ought to do it earlier and more forcefully if there is going to be some downturn related to the coronavirus in the economy that has the potential to last not just a temporary downturn that the Fed ought to address it earlier and more forcefully that's what the research says and David I don't know how to counter the other side of the argument which is perfectly legitimate that you ought to hold on to it I think at some point you make a judgment call that what's happening now what's happened in China the supply and shortage that's going to developer that's already developing the possibility that you have consumers not going out and spending and reducing their spending levels is one that the Federal Reserve thinks represents a serious threat to the US economy hey Steve there's a Fed meeting coming up and I think you know a lot of the guests on CNBC expected this move to happen then so what are we two weeks away so I think that's the surprising element that had happened outside of a meeting what what is he gonna do at the meeting well if things get worse than expected you might imagine adding another quarter point I did I have been showing those probability charts that showed there was something like I want to call it a 60% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the way that's not actually for the meeting it's for the end of the contract at the end of the month of March so it can happen anytime it doesn't really pinpoint when it happens and some 30 or 40 percent probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and I suppose what's just happened now Sarah is the debate in the market has become one of zero or 25 at the March meeting I there's also been times throughout these last especially just call them 10 days of tumult in the markets that the market has priced in a full percentage point rate cut as as soon as July that whole hundred basis points or later on into the fall so that's another part of the debate is how much more the Federal Reserve is going to do I think it's also probably not crazy to start talking about whether or not additional quantitative easing is out there we have also talked in the last couple days about some speculation JP Morgan among them that rates could eventually go to zero as a result of this crisis I think the numbers to watch and I'm kind of echoing Jim Cramer I believe on this are not necessarily the economic numbers that we will watch those I think there the infection numbers I think those are the one that going to term it and also critically yep the infection numbers will determine the actions that are taken by businesses by schools by governments as to how much of a shutdown there is to the economy totally I mean look at the stocks are really going up as their session stops people are saying you know what I'm making determination the feds really worried then I should be worried so let's go by the soft goods let's go by consumer packaged goods let's go by the things that people hoard they're not going and starting to take caterpillar but can't blow us up a little bit because it's in the Dow but you know this isn't necessary going to produce anything other than I think some degree of fear because we need to see the yes the infection numbers of the biological that's the biological uh contract that's what we need to worry about you
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