저자: CraigYates · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 2021년 대폭락 경고를 인용하며 버블 붕괴 가능성을 강조하지만, 핵심 메시지는 시장 하락 시에도 장기 투자를 유지하라는 것이다. 버리의 경고 배경: 버리는 2008년 금융위기를 예측해 유명해졌고, 2021년 6월 트위터에 '모든 버블의 어머니'라는 글을 올렸다가 4일 뒤 삭제했다고 소개됨. 영상은 그를 '카산드라'에 비유하며 예언해도 믿지 않는다는 이미지를 강조. 2008년 위기 경위: 서브프라임 대출 확대, 부실 대출의 AAA 포장·매각, 보험(CDS) 헤지가 맞물려 붕괴했다고 설명. 파생상품을 '베팅에 대한 베팅'으로 묘사. 현재 위험 수치(영상 제시, 근사치): 전 세계 주식시가총액 약 89.5조 달러, 파생상품 시장 600~1000조 달러, 부동산 270조 달러, 전 세계 부채 281조 달러, 총 부 360조 달러, 암호화폐 시총 약 1.5조 달러. 워런 버핏의 2016년 파생상품 경고 인용, 기업부채·CMBS 등 기업 부채 포장 위험 언급. 코로나 대응 유동성 확대로 자산가격이 사상 최고 수준이라 진단하고, 모기지 유예 종료(6/30) 이후 디폴트 가능성 제기. 금리 리스크: 인플레이션 상승 시 금리 인상이 불가피하고, 이는 소비 심리 위축→고용·임금 감소→경기 둔화의 악순환을 낳을 수 있다고 설명. 역사적 데이터: 한국 코스피 1995~2020년 기준, 2000년 닷컴 버블 붕괴(약 -30%)와 2008년 위기(약 -40%) 이후 3년간 주가가 크게 회복했다고 제시. 1995년 100만 원 투자 후 25년 보유 시 약 1857만 원, 최고 상승 3개월을 놓치면 수익 31% 감소, 6개월 50%, 9개월 60% 이상, 12개월 72% 감소라고 주장. 출연자 전망: 시장 조정은 불가피하며 누군가는 맞힐 것이나 예측은 어렵다. 장기 투자 유지, 비상자금 확보, 부채 상환, 생활 검소화, 분산투자 5가지 조언 제시. 구체적 종목 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
what's up guys it's craig yates here today we're talking about finance but actually more specifically we are going to be talking about if we are in a bubble and if a bubble is about to come and hit us in the face some of you might remember michael barry from that famous movie the big shorts if you don't you'll probably remember margot robbie teaching us about finance in a bubble bath well michael barry has just come out on twitter and said we are in for the mother of all bubbles and then four days later he deleted it from twitter so what is going on he predicted the massive 2008 global financial crisis he's now said we are about to have one of the biggest cryptocurrency and stock bubbles ever that's going to destroy all retail investors so stay tuned but before you do that and before we get into the details around it make sure to smash that like button and stay to the end now the interesting thing about twitter is that on michael barry's twitter profile his name is cassandra and if you know anything about greek mythology you'll know cassandra was famous for predicting so many events that took place but no one ever believed her and michael barry thinks he's the same he has this ordained power that he knows what's going to happen in the future but no one actually believes him so if we look at it cassandra was loved by the god apollo who promised her the power of prophecy if she would comply with his desires cassandra accepted the proposal received the gift and then refused the god her favors apollo revenged himself by ordaining that her prophecies should never be believed she accurately predicted such events as the fall of troy and the death of agamenta but her warnings rinse unheated so let's start all the way back in 2008 where michael barry first predicted the global financial crisis so what happened well the subprime lending crash took place so what does that mean there were a whole lot of individuals who wouldn't ordinarily qualify for a loan or in american terms a mortgage that were given mortgages so they couldn't qualify for them they were given a mortgage and they went on to go buy another house another house another house when they shouldn't have been able to qualify in the first place banks then decided hey what we can do is we can make more money here we can take these loans and we can wrap them together and go and label them aaa investments which is really unsecured toxic debt and sell them onto other banks and other institutions and then what they did was they went and took out insurance in case those banks defaulted and the individuals couldn't pay their mortgage and what happened that's exactly what happened very clever people michael barry being one of them realized what was going to happen and bets against it he became famous for that but there's something that's still in the system today because some people say 2008 never went away we're still in the 2008 crisis and the 2008 crisis is still to hit us even harder than what it did in 2008 if you remember selena gomez speaking about what a derivative is a derivative is really a bet on a bet if you think about it it's almost a bits on a bit on a bench kind of like inception where when one small thing starts to unravel it snowballs and it gets bigger and bigger and bigger and the worry is that right now in 2021 we potentially in the mother of a storm of what's about to unravel so where does all the risk actually lie so as markets move up and things get priced higher and higher the risk becomes higher and higher so if we look at the whole world stock market at the moment the value sits around 89.5 trillion u.s dollars that's the value of the entire stock market but the interesting thing when you look at the derivatives market the derivatives market is sitting at 600 to a thousand trillion us dollars a thousand trillion dollars is the derivative market of what its market capitalization is at the moment so much higher than the stock price when we look at things like the real estate market real estate is sitting at a market cap of 270 trillion dollars when we look at the whole of debt throughout the entire world debt markets are sitting at 281 trillion dollars the total world wealth right now at the moment is sitting at 360 trillion dollars and people say cryptocurrency has gone up a lot cryptocurrency is sitting at a market cap of 1.5 trillion dollars so compare all of that to what the derivative market is at the moment how big it is and what happens if it starts to unravel just a little bit the knock on effect in america that old saying when america sneezes the rest of the world catches the cold so why is this important to know in 2016 warren buffett k martini said the derivative market will crash and burn at some stage because of the risk associated to it not only did the 2008 crash take place because of derivatives and what they were doing to retail investors since then the reason why they say we aren't out of the 2008 crash is because they've been doing something very very similar but with corporates with corporate debt and with corporate investments if we look at something called cmbs they're packaging corporate debt together which is bigger than the individual retail investor and the worry is right now we've gone through covert which all they did was kick the can down the road so no one actually felt the pain in america they injected so much money into the economy so people had money to go out and spend now on the 30th of june mortgage forbearances are coming to an end so people will once again start to default on mortgages and loans and that could very easily unravel from a derivative point of view and hurt absolutely everyone when we look at a healthy economy when things are working well consumers have a lot of confidence when consumers have a lot of confidence what are they going to do they love spending money so they go out and spend money which is great they put more money back into the economy so businesses have more productivity when they've got more productivity what do they then go and do they go and hire more people so our unemployment rates go down they hire more people and they give them higher wages more wages leads on to more confidence more confidence more spending and that economic cycle just goes on and on and on and we find ourselves in a better economy where things are going smoothly and things are going well and that's what's happened in america because the government has gone and given individuals free money they've gone and given them this money and they've gone spending the price of property in america is at an all-time high the price of rent in america is at an all-time high the price of the stock market is at all-time high the price of cryptocurrency uh until a couple of days ago was at an all-time high so things are very very high at the moment and when things are higher the risk of a dropping becomes higher and higher and that is why so many people are predicting above it so will the bubble actually take place the big risk in america right now is if inflation starts to go up and inflation is going up because what happens when inflation goes up the government needs to control it because if inflation is going up they need to look after their exchange rate how do they look after the exchange rate they have to go and increase interest rates interest rates are all time low that's why more and more people can go buy houses at the moment interest rates are low and what's going to happen when people have gone and bought fancy houses fancy cars put themselves in a lot of credit card debt and interest rates start to go up they're going to find it harder and harder to survive that is what the big worry is at the moment because what happens when interest rates go up that's going to hurt customer confidence when customer confidence gets hurt they're not going to spend a lot of money if they stop spending people are not going to be able to employ more people it's going to have an effect on the employment trades it's going to reduce wages and that negative economic cycle happens all over again and we move from a positive growing economy to a negative slowing down economy where the economy is under pressure so the risks are there right now will this happen people predict bubbles and bubbles will always burst at some stage recessions aren't necessarily a bad thing and they've taken place and they've happened but when will it happen and what impact will it have on you should you take all your money out of your investments now should you stay invested what should you do well we're going to cover that in the next couple of minutes so let's have a look right here at home what happened on our jsc from 1995 up to 2020.
so let's cover 25 years because we saw two big market corrections one was the 2000.com crash which might be very very similar to where we find ourselves right now with regards to cryptocurrency and the other one what we've been speaking about the whole time the 2008 financial crash well in 2000 when the market crashed and the bubble burst markets dropped 30 percent in one year how difficult is it to emotionally stay invested in a market when the floor has dropped from underneath your feeds and the market's just going down if you had the courage to stay invested the next year markets went up 43 percent and the year after that it grew another 46 and after that another 36 percent so the three years after that market crash and that bubble burst the market flew so those that were courageous to stay invested actually ended up making more money well in 2008 the bubble burst and the market corrected even more so not thirty percent this time but forty percent the market dropped forty percent well you can tell me what happened to three years after that market correction yes the market went up the next three consecutive years 48 26 and 24 so as long as you stayed invested for the next three years you would have made your money back and you would have made more so even if we go into a market correction and the bubble burst right now what do you think the best thing is to do because it's going to be very difficult to stay invested when the floor is getting wiped from underneath you and everyone is freaking out because those people that predicted the bubble might be correct and it might come because it will correct at some stage what are you going to do so let's take that example and let's say you invested 100 grand back in 1995 and you left it for the 25 year period up until march of 2020 your 100 rank would have been worth 1 857 rand so over those 25 years as long as you've stayed invested you have got through the 2000 bubble that crashed and the 2008 bubble that crashed and you stayed invested you would have made a lot of money now emotionally it might have been tough to stay invested because if you turned on the tv and you had watched any news or you read the newspaper or even if you checked your twitter account you might have wanted to exit the investment and it's the courage investor who stays invested for the right reasons that makes money now let's say over that year period if you exited your investment for whatever reason for three months but not just any three months the best performing three months over that 25 year period what would that have done to your investment that huge growth that you had over those 25 years your investment would have been 31 lower if you were out of the market for the best three months and we don't know when those best three months are going to be i don't know why buffer doesn't know no one knows how are you going to know now what happens if you are out of the market for the best six months if you were out for the best six months over 25 years your investment would have been worth 50 percent less and what about nine months well it would have been more than 60 percent less and what about a whole year over 25 years you're out for whatever reason you're still on the sidelines for 12 months your investment would be 72 less now that's one out of 25 years no one's going to be able to predict that i'm not going to be able to do it you're not going to be able to no one's going to be able to do it so if we go into a market correction a bubble that bursts all these people that are predicting it if that happens what do you need to do you've heard it right here on my youtube channel you have to have the courage to stay invested because market corrections are part of life it's going to happen one person is going to get it correct and then they're probably going to make a movie about it maybe it's michael barry maybe it's someone else that we haven't even heard of because people are predicting bubbles all the time at some stage they will burst but from a financial planning point of view you have to stay invested so that's my p to you whatever you do make sure you stay invested and if that means you need to speak to a financial advisor or you need someone else to be accountable for there's a reason why great sports people have coaches is because they know they're too close to the problem they're too emotionally invested that if it's up to them they're not going to think properly and they're going to do the wrong thing and we do that so after when it comes to our money that is why you need someone to help you out that you can't rely on your own emotions because you're going to turn the tv and then you're going to start selling everything because the world is coming to an end so here are five quick little tips that anyone can do if a bubble were to burst or just to survive any recession of any sorts number one make sure that you have a safety net at some stage you're going to need that rainy day account that comes handy so make sure to have a safety net number two make sure to draw up a budget and start paying off debt debt is bad make sure to start paying it off number three start to scale down your lifestyle and be a little bit more frugal very important not so easy especially with instagram your neighbors your friends and those famous joneses then number four make sure to diversify your investments don't put all your eggs in one basket we've spoken about that previously on another video about bitcoin if you haven't go and watch that don't put all your eggs in one basket make sure to diversify and then the most important one number five stay invested never try and time the market stay invested you will thank me in later years to come if you follow these five tips it will get you through any bubble that bursts any marker recession if you haven't yet smash that like button subscribe to my channel lots more financial tips education and entertainment coming soon until next time i'm out of here um
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