저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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부채한도 협상 교착으로 시장이 단기 조정 중이며, 디폴트 시 경기침체 우려가 있어 방어주 중심 접근을 권함. [시장 상황] - 시장이 부채한도 우려로 하락 중(S&P -0.17%, 나스닥 +0.18%, 대형 기술주만 강세) - 연준 금리인상은 당분간 없을 가능성, 그러나 부채한도 협상이 주요 하방 리스크 - 2011년 부채한도 위기 때 약 한 달 반 동안 주가가 고점 대비 약 10% 하락한 전례 언급 [방어 섹터·종목] - 제약: 일라이 릴리(마운자로 출시, 비만·당뇨 치료제, 알츠하이머 후보 언급)를 '매수' 권유, 머크 언급 - 소비재: P&G, 코카콜라, 펩시코(스낵 수요 강조), 콜게이트, 몬델리즈, 허쉬 언급 - 패스트푸드: 맥도날드, 양 브랜즈, 레스토랑브랜즈, 치폴레, 웬디스 언급 - AI: 엔비디아, 마이크로소프트, 알파벳, 메타 언급, 조정 시 매수 관점 [개별 질의응답] - 화장품 소매(울타뷰티 추정): 최근 약세에도 장기 보유 권고 - Devon Energy: 75달러 부근 일부 익절, 나머지 보유 유지, 추가 매수 비권고, 석유주는 부채한도 이후 재검토 - 미국 지역은행(Huntington, KeyCorp, Fifth Third): 규제 비용 우려로 부채한도 위기 해소 전까지 비추천 [리스크·조건] - 디폴트 시 경기침체 가능성, 포트폴리오 방어 위해 2011년 유형 종목 선호 - 조정 후 반등 타이밍을 기다릴 것을 권고 [출연자 전망] - 바이든·매카시 협상에서 백악관이 양보할 가능성 언급, 결국 타협 예상 - 협상 타결 후 시장은 주도주 중심으로 상승 기대
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they have money Starts Now hey I'm Kramer welcome to Mad Money welcome to Great America I'll be one of my friends I'm just trying to help you save somt's mighty hard to keep your bat on your shoulders on day like today Market sells off now sinking 222 points SP declining 0.17 NASDAQ actually inching up 0.18 because of a stock yeah just a handful of those big tech stocks normally when the market throws a sale I tell you to do some buying even now I'm tempted because it looks like the Federal Reserve May finally be out of the picture thanks to the recent economic data we've been getting I think it's cool enough that they might not need to hit us with any more rate hikes anytime soon but I can't enjoy spying in the week this year because of the debt ceiling fight based on the last debt ceiling crisis this Market could have a lot more downside before we get a deal and that's assuming we get a deal at all maybe the government ends up defaulting on its obligations that's very much on the table despite protestations from both sides of the aisle then it'll never happen right now with the economy slowing and tax receipts coming up short we might bump up against the limit by the end of the month on the one side you have President Biden who's been unwilling to negotiate in any subsequent form on the other side you have speaker McCarthy who's giving the appearance of being willing to negotiate but his suggestions have very little chance of leading to any meaningful compromise in the end I think the White House will have to Blink because the two sides frankly aren't evenly matched President Biden is running for re-election next year he can't afford to let a default happen or even a recession sparked by fears of the Fall because presidents don't get reelected when the economy sours but speaker McCarthy well he doesn't publicly said he doesn't want to fall he's not going to lose his job if he lets it happen if anything is caucus might actually reward him for it at the very least he'll have an easier time with the hard right portion of his party that's given him so much trouble we don't really know what will happen but as a stock guy not a politics guy I I just want to compromise I don't care what's in it as long as the government can keep paying his bills and you can make money owning stocks fortunately as I've been mentioned before we have a clear analog and that's the debt ceiling crisis of 2011.
when we almost defaulted so assuming we follow a similar trajectory of what groups did best and what groups did worse during the months-long torture it was a whole month and a half basically of the first debt ceiling crisis that caused the 90 to climb from Peak to 12th what worked back then well perhaps that can work now first as you might have guessed we can buy the stocks of literally any drug company because even though Medicare bills could be on the line wall Street's a lot more worried that a government default will trigger a recession not a bunch of unpaid bills to say Merck which was one of the standout performers in the last crisis yet the pharmaceutical stocks were the first to bottom in 2011 and that was after the sovereign debt downgrade by the standard reports that was an insult to the injury of the debt deal something which was every bit as Savage as the actual negotiations who fits the bill this time around well at this moment it's Eli Lilly which is which is on the cusp of the largest drug launch in ages I'm talking about munjaro which is Lily's revolutionary diabetes drug that doubles as a weight loss treatment we've got a huge obesity problem here in America as you can assume the sales will be off the charts that's why literally such a large position for my travel trust as investing club members have known for ages on top of everything else the same drugs being studied for cholesterol blood pressure and heavy drinking none of which are in this numbers nor is the potential of Louise Alzheimer's drug candidate which when you've got two possible home runs the debt ceiling debacle can't derail your story second to bottom in 2011 were the consumer product stocks now you're everything in Procter again which helped very well during the decline of 2011.
or how about can view that set recently spun off consumer health business from jnj more on that one later Coca-Cola stays strong but this time around the star of the show is PepsiCo because snackies become far more ingrained in our lifestyle than it was in 2011. PepsiCo like Lily is a fabulous performer if you want food then you want modelies or Hershey two amazing performers mod releases questioned with cookies but nothing's working as well as candy maker Hershey all these stocks share one major characteristic Beyond consistent demand and that's a decline in costs resulting from the end of supply chain problems from covid and lower commodity prices and yes cheaper transport now what I'd also consider Colgate as a possibility it's a sleeping giant that awoke that last quarter it seems poised for a nice run one of these should definitely be on your shopping list I'm trying to figure out which one might be best for the travel trust when we convene for our club meeting next week I'm not sure which one to pick yet stay tuned next to bottom in 2011 was fast food as McDonald's was a total store just a star back then if that was perhaps because Wall Street assume people would trade down on Mickey D's the golden arches pretty much had the feel to itself back then still worth considering along with young Brands restaurant Brands and chipotle I like what I heard from Wendy's yesterday too I hope you did finally Mission critical Tech work back then Tech that facilitated the internet's growth yeah I guess some things don't change this time it's worth looking at the ones that can help you mine big data for your own advantage that's right artificial intelligence can make a company do far more with less less people less money you need a consultant to do it though and right now those Consultants are Microsoft and alphabet now Nvidia and that platforms are benefiting too each does a different thing you need Nvidia cards to run such complicated software alphabet Microsoft are integrating AI into the rest of their commercial products metas using AI to get around Apple's privacy restrictions and once again deliver targeted ads to you boy the advertising just love that over the coming weeks and months I'll explain how they use artificial intelligence to help their clients what matters is that you need one of their icons one of these icons of AI in your portfolio please wait for the market white pullback from the debt ceiling Fiasco before you pull the trigger considering that the president just pushed back a key debt ceiling meeting to next week I'm going to I expect you're getting a bearish opportunity to do some bike everything else didn't make the cutter took too long to bounce back in 2011.
that's because both the consumer and Enterprise conserve cash spending less for fear that they need it you husband your cash when you think you'll be a recession right and that's what people fought in 2011 until the all clear standard during that period you did nothing but lose money you know every day in almost every other category so the bottom line be careful and use the parameters I've laid out that way even if we get a default that triggers a recession or Wall Street believes that we're going to get one your portfolio can still come out relatively whole no sense in leading you astray though the debt debacle and the downgrade of the U.S debt by a ratings agency did a ton of damage to stocks we're only trying to pick which ones went down the least because everything performed poorly let's go to a meal in New York a meal hi Jim hope you're doing well I am I hope you are the same good thank you long time listener second time caller and a club member oh thank you for joining us I think a stock in retail cosmetic and Beauty sector I brought this a couple years ago you've spoken about it highly over the past several years it's reported about three months ago a very nice quarter and the price action was very nice on the stock I added some more to my Holdings because I thought it would be a good stock to have in a possible recessionary environment and then for the past months the stock has been going uh down uh pretty rapidly about 10 percent although it had a nice balance today because of an upgrade from an analyst some of the cosmetic companies Cody and else has been doing very well the stock I'm talking about is also there's not much it's easy for me I've been recommending all the if you recall my Mary Joan took over many years ago I started recommending it and then Dave Kimball came in they are doing a terrific job by the way I recommend people go if you don't want to go to Ulta Beauty I do love their stores go to a Target you you can see a lot of great products there you see what Ulta beauty is doing they are really making it so that a lot of Cosmetics that used to be very expensive are inexpensive let's go to Mike in Illinois Mike Jimmy chill today a long time first time thank you what's going on hey I'd like to give a big Booyah to my son Hunter out there my question to you is about Devin energy I bought in when we talked about this about two years ago I rode the train all the way up to 75 passed out some profit been holding the rest just wondering should I buy a hold no I don't want you to buy more I mean Rick monkey was on the show he did a terrific job and Devin is a good company we made a lot of money for it uh for the club however the oil stocks are right now in retreat they did not do well in the period that was like this in 2011 with the debt ceiling let's wait till we get past the debt ceiling issue and then revisit the oils let's go to Kyle in Illinois please Kyle hey Jim Kyle from Chicago how are you I'm doing fine Kyle thanks for calling what's going on well I'm in Chicago but you know when I spent 20 years in Columbus Ohio and there's a little Bank there called H what we call h-man and it's still my bank today and you go north and it's key Corp and you go south and it's Fifth Third Bank from the Great Lakes to the Ohio region I bought all three yesterday and then I woke up today and they're all down because of a little Bank in Beverly Hills California am I early I'm buying all these three Midwest Banks uh I've been thinking of the h space Huntington Bank shares they've been on the show Mr Steiner is terrific uh I don't recommend any of the regional Banks until we get through this crisis the reason I don't is because we keep getting hit by things like for instance the FDIC is proposing much larger fees so now we say oh geez we got to cut numbers on these I mean we're in a world of this group and I like to stay out of that address but thank you for the call look the debt ceiling is a real overhang right now so tread lightly and stick with the winners that could lead the market higher once we get a resolution we're mayor tonight as I mentioned the debt ceiling crisis does have the market on edge but what are the Tactical sealant I'm going off the charts to find out then the turbulent economy put the IPO Market on pars but it got a shot in the arm last week with Jonathan Johnson's spin open and newcoming public I'll tell you if it's worth considering I know many of you are thinking about it and earlier this week I told you the travel Leisure was one of the sectors showing signs of strength amid the uncertainty so could boating fit into the investing thesis I'm getting a read on the space with the CEO of Brunswick thank you
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