저자: AndrewPaulo · 외국인
요약 보기
SK하이닉스 나스닥 상장으로 단기 주가 급등 가능성이 있고, 장기적으로 마이크론과 SK하이닉스 모두 수익을 낼 것이므로 마이크론을 팔기보다 둘 다 매수를 고려하라는 주장. 근거로 상장 후 기관 수요 집중(25개 계좌가 IPO 물량 2/3 매수), 낮은 선행 PER(SK 약 5.5배, 마이크론 약 6.7배), HBM 점유율 SK 58% vs 마이크론 21%, 분기 영업이익률 72% 등을 제시. 리스크로 엔비디아 물량 집중과 공급선 다변화 우려를 언급.
다듬은 글
Okay guys, with SK Hynix set to go listed on the Nasdaq in the US, a lot of people are thinking SK Hynix will skyrocket and it could potentially be time to sell Micron stock. Let's talk about that in this video. Check out these headlines guys. How SK Hynix US listing will help close the gap with Micron stock.
Before we jump into it guys, as always, please like and subscribe. I always like to point out I do have a $2 million net worth, about $900,000 in stocks, $300,000 in cash that I looking to invest some into Micron and SK Hynix stock. Just want to let you guys know I know a thing or two about investing, right?
But let's take take a quick look. And let's talk about the plan here for SK Hynix. Now, essentially what they think, and for those of you that don't want to stick around, I'm going to give you the bottom line. I'm planning on buying both. I'm I'm planning on buying Micron and SK Hynix. Personally, what I think's going to happen, and I'll tell you why in this video if you guys want to stick around.
I think SK Hynix will pop in the coming days and weeks, but I think in the long term both stocks are going to print money for investors. And stick around, I'm going to tell you exactly why. Now, essentially the concept here, and really what most people think the reason is SK Hynix, which of course makes memory chips as well just like Micron.
Remember, there's only three companies that really make these memory chips, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. And crazy enough, between those three companies they basically have 100% of the global market, which is completely crazy. And SK Hynix actually has, I believe it's uh like 52% somewhere around there, like 58.
It's I think it's 58 actually. It's insane. But essentially the thought process here is they're listing the stock on the US stock exchange really to increase demand for the stock itself, which there is precedent showing that the stock price goes up because of this. And essentially, what that means is, you know, we all know the US is the place to invest in stocks, not only in US companies, but when you have companies from other countries that are doing extremely well, if they list on the US, that's where investors are, right?
So, that's where they get more demand for their stock. So, there is strong precedent for this strategy. Now, foreign companies, particularly those in the tech and semiconductor semiconductor sectors, often cross-list on US exchanges. The goal is to access deeper pools of US capital, attract more US-based institutional investors, and eliminate foreign valuation discounts.
I also want to point out that there is a precedent for this. Taiwan Semiconductor, they is the most noticeable notable example. They utilized a massive American depository receipt, which is the same process that SK is using to list on the Nasdaq currently, because US investors demand premium valuations for AI-linked infrastructure.
Taiwan Semiconductor eventually achieved a significantly higher price-to-earnings multiple than it commanded in Taiwan. And for those of you who don't know, most of you do know what a PE ratio is, price-to-earnings, right? So, what multiple are you paying for each dollar of earnings on that stock? Now, currently, they have an extremely low PE.
I think it's somewhere around 5.5. If you look here, now, surprisingly, Micron is only trading at about a 6.7. So, they're at a I'm sorry, forward PE, right? You know, the anticipated earnings in the next 12 months, taken into account with the current share price, they're only trading at a 5.5 and a 6.7 forward PE multiple, respectively.
These are both insanely low, and it's why I think both companies are going to continue to do well in the long term. Remember, guys, there's only three companies doing this, right? There's only three major companies globally selling these memory chips that are needed for the AI data center build-out.
Now, I want to separate two things. There's the supply There's the demand for the stock itself, and there's the demand for the memory chips, right? And this is why I think in the short term the price will pop on SK because the demand should theoretically go up once they list on the Nasdaq. And this is proving to most likely be true because only 25 accounts purchased about 2/3 of the IPO offering of SK Hynix.
Think about that, guys. Only 25 accounts were able to purchase 2/3 of all the shares that are going to be listed on the Nasdaq. And really what that points to is these are institutional funds buying these shares. These are hedge funds. These are wealth management firms, the biggest ones on the planet.
And you know, these giant firms, you know, they're they are clownish, right? They can sell, you know, at the bottom just like anybody else. But in the short term, you know, they're most likely acquiring these shares because their investors want access to memory investing, right? And currently in the US, the only major play they've had is Micron.
So, institutions are buying up these shares. And really what that means is there's not a ton of shares out there for retail, right? When you think about 2/3 of the shares going to institutions, it's only about a third left that retail could buy. Because of that, there's going to be a low supply of the stock, in my opinion, relative to supply.
So, we're probably likely to see a short-term pop in the price of SK. Now again, in the long term, I do expect both companies to do well. So, a lot of people are saying, "Hey, should we sell Micron to buy SK?" And there's a lot of speculation that a lot of these institutions are doing this, that they're going to sell Micron to then redeploy it into SK and diversify.
It's possible that will happen to an extent. Of course, it's possible that some fund managers will will take a look at this and say, "You know what? We have all of our customers, all of our clients as far as memory investments, 100% in Micron. We want to diversify a little bit, almost like a little ETF with a couple of different stocks.
So, we're going to sell some to buy SK." Again, I think that could be a short-term catalyst for SK popping. In the short-term, could potentially have maybe a small impact on Micron. But, I do expect generally this to be a positive thing for memory stocks across the board and relatively near in the near future, maybe in the coming weeks and months, I expect both stocks to do really, really well.
Really quickly, guys, just to point out what an ADR even is. Essentially, what this is is an American depositary receipt. And this company, SK Hynix, is a South Korean company. And essentially, they print a handful of shares and they give those shares to a US bank that is located in Asia. This bank acts as the vault and issues ADRs to US investors based on those stored Korean shares.
So, essentially, that bank holds the short holds the shares. They're located in Korea, but it's a US bank, so investors can feel comfortable knowing that those shares do in fact belong to them. And essentially, one share on the US Nasdaq will be I'm sorry, 10 shares on the Nasdaq will be one share in Korea.
So, that's really how it works really at a basic level. Now, what I want to point out about SK is their biggest strength is their biggest risk. Now, SK Hynix is estimated to supply between 50 and 70% of Nvidia's total HBMs, which are the high bandwidth memory orders. Now, when you think about that, obviously, Nvidia is the biggest player in this AI build-out space, that AI infrastructure economy.
Now, when you're the biggest supplier for memory chips to Nvidia, you're the big dog in the space, right? You're printing money. You are printing money. Now, at the same time, because a large proportion of your income, your revenue is coming from one customer being Nvidia, you know, if if Nvidia even signals that they're looking to diversify and get more of their memory chips from other suppliers, specifically this would most likely be Micron and Samsung, even just the signal of that could bring the price crashing down on SK Hynix.
Now, do I think that'll happen? I really don't, honestly. I mean, Micron could nibble into this dynamic here and maybe get some some more of that share, but I don't think there's going to be a massive crash in this, you know, relationship between SK and Nvidia, because SK is the leader for a reason.
They have IP on extremely extremely performance memory chips, specifically these high-bandwidth memory chips that are extremely difficult to create. And again, a lot of people think they make them better than Micron. I'm not an expert in that field, but I do know they have a strong relationship. Just pointing that out, that technically there is a risk, you know, that speculation could lead to a sell-off in that case.
Now, as far as a head-to-head comparison, guys, let's take a quick look comparing SK to Micron. Now, SK Hynix controls roughly 58% of the global HBM market, easily dwarfing Micron's 21% share. SK Hynix pioneered the HBM tech, making it a primary supplier for top AI accelerators like Nvidia itself. Now, that's insane, guys.
58% of the global HBM market share. Again, these HBMs are the memory chips used in AI data centers, and they have 58% market share. Now, you can look at that two ways. You can look at Micron and say, "Look, Micron's got 21% SK has 58% you know, Micron has a bigger upside, right? Even if they just go to 30%, maybe SK Hynix drops down to 50%, in the high 40s, SK still dominant, but the growth opportunity is with Micron, right?
That's why personally I'm thinking about diversifying, putting some in SK, some in Micron. Both companies have a They essentially have a like an not a monopoly, but I think you call it an oligopoly, where you have a few small companies dominating the space. [snorts] Obviously, a little more upside there, but SK currently dominating that space.
Now, margins and profitability, because of its dominance in the premium HBM space, SK Hynix earns a higher margin with operating margins approaching 75-plus percent compared to Micron. However, SK Hynix can be a little volatile, given that it has been only traded in South Korea. Now, product strategy and contracts.
Micron did make huge news the last few weeks, signaling that they had 16 long-term contracts, essentially locking in this demand for years to come. These are five-year contracts with floors on pricing. The cyclical dynamic looks like it's not going to happen for at least the next few years. So, demand is relatively locked into a large extent.
We haven't heard news of SK doing the same thing, but obviously, with, you know, Nvidia taking up a huge portion of its supply, there's not a ton left for other companies, but I would not be surprised to see SK following suit and doing the same thing. But as of now, we have not had news of this. So, just currently, that is an edge that Micron has over SK.
Now, of course, supply is still extremely low. So, with that being said, SK should take advantage of this dynamic currently, just like Micron did, and lock in these long-term contracts. They still haven't, but that could be a massive catalyst for SK in the near future, as well. And of course, as we said, Micron is already listed on the US stock exchanges with SK Hynix set to, as of making this video, launch on the Nasdaq tomorrow.
Of course, that should increase demand for SK stock as well. Now, what's the bull case for SK Hynix? We've talked about the bull case, guys, in a lot of ways. Let's summarize this again and maybe point out some other um bull case scenarios here. The bull case centers on its unmatched HBM monopoly, a deliberate valuation arbitrage play, like we said, being listed on the Nasdaq, and massive capital backing for its US expansion.
All of these things put together, guys, coupled with its amazing financials. Check this out. Total revenue for Q1 2026 of SK Hynix, total revenue 35 billion, up 200% year-over-year. Operating profit 25.4 billion in Q1 2026 with a record-high operating margin of 72% net income of 27.3 billion again in Q1 2026.
Cash and cash equivalents 54.3 trillion. Sorry, I'm sorry, that's in the Korean denomination, putting the company in a massive net cash positive of 35 trillion uh Korean uh dollars, you could say. Market cap skyrocketed to over 1.3 trillion, which I believe is in the ballpark of Micron as well. So, financials obviously strong, just like Micron.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments, guys. Those are my thoughts. I don't think personally it's time to sell Micron. Personally, I think it's time to consider buying both. I think they're both going to do really well in the mid to long term. I do think there's a chance SK could outperform in the short term given everything we outlined in this video.
But, let me know your thoughts on that, guys. Do you agree with what I'm saying? Do you disagree? If so, tell me why. Are you guys considering buying these stocks? What's your bull case? Let me know your thoughts. And as always, guys, please like and subscribe. And if you're interested in learning how I built my wealth, again, guys, I have a $2 billion net worth, $900,000 in stocks, 300 in cash looking to deploy into stocks as well.
If you want to join my private Patreon group, I'll be showing you guys exactly which stocks I'm buying, which stocks I'm bullish on, and we'll have a little group chat in there where we can talk stocks, talk Micron, talk SK as well. So, with that said, guys, thank you so much for watching, and I'll see you on the next video.
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