June was a market bottom, the second half of 2022 will be strong, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

요약 보기

결론: 2022년 6월이 시장 바닥이었고 하반기는 상당히 좋을 것이라는 낙관론. 주장: 연준의 긴축 기대가 과도하며, 주택 등 선행 가격지표는 이미 하락 중이라 인플레이션이 꺾이고 있다고 봄. 공식 통계는 주거비 반영이 늦어 실제 가격 둔화를 놓친다고 지적. 근거: NAHB 주택시장지수가 역사상 코로나 초기(2020년 3~4월) 이후 최대 낙폭 기록. 부동산 중개인 현장에서도 가격 둔화 확인. 주거비는 핵심 물가지수의 약 40%. 통화정책: 연준이 2020~2021년 과도한 부양을 했다고 비판하나, 2022년에는 통화량 증가가 거의 멈춰 긴축이 이미 충분히 진행됨. 중립금리는 약 1.5%로 보며 현재 연방기금금리 2.5%는 이미 중립 이상이라 5%까지 올리면 장단기 금리 역전과 경기침체가 확실시된다고 주장. 시장 전망: 6월 저점이 유지된다는 입장이나, 연준이 75bp 등 공격적 인상을 지속하면 경기침체로 이어질 수 있다고 조건부 경고. 연착륙 가능성은 '확실하지 않지만' 점점 낙관적으로 보고 있음. 반대 의견: 빌 더들리 전 뉴욕 연은 총재는 주식시장이 잘못 판단하고 있으며 연준이 긴축을 더 해야 한다고 주장. 진행자는 연준과 맞서는 것은 어렵다고 언급. 리스크: 연준이 긴축을 과도하게 가져갈 경우 경기침체 위험. 통화량 축소의 과도한 지속도 우려 요인으로 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. we had bill deadly the former the former fed official bill dudley from the new york fed um he was on yesterday saying that he thinks the equity market has it wrong that the fed is going to have to do a lot more tightening you're going to take the other side of that um it's a tricky thing to fight the fed it is but uh yeah i'm gonna take the other side of that i think that we will have maybe a hundred basis points uh left i mean perhaps 50 25 um i think you look at forward-looking sensitive prices they are not going up only the only thing that's going up is going to be wages uh in in certain sectors um take a take a look at the housing industry which is was a major major inflationary force in the last two years the nahb index which was reported just a few days ago i just looked at it it has had the biggest drop in six months in its history oh only during the pandemic year uh a month of march 2020 to april 2020 did we have a bigger drop if you go on the ground with real estate brokers they say prices are softened um everywhere and and and remember housing is 40 of the core index now will you see that in the official statistics no because of the way the government does the official statistics they put it in very lag so you're going to say housing prices continue to rise rise rise there but on the ground they're not on the ground the sensitive commodities the real prices are not rising and i think if the fed takes a look at that they will not have to go more aggressively so i think the market has it right here i think with the june is going to be a bottom uh and i think the second half of the year is going to be quite good so basically you think it's time to declare a mission accomplished i would say well you know i don't forgive the fed for overdoing stimulus uh providing the government with all the money that they wanted which is way too much in 20 20 21 um but if you take a look at the money supply which is what i do you know very often uh they brought that to a screeching halt i mean we've had virtually no increase in money in 2022 and uh you know my feeling is you know i actually voiced as if they continued this tight they would produce a recession if they begin to loosen a little bit i mean not loose in terms of rates because that's built in but not keep that money supply the biggest slow down that we have ever seen begin to raise it a little bit i think we might get that soft landing that everyone else thought was impossible not a sure thing uh but i'm becoming more optimistic about that what do you think the odds are jeremy that the fed is listening and would go along with what you're suggesting um i hope they listen to everybody and and i really hope that they realize uh you know again their past mistakes the money to uh loose and now they say we don't want to make it just too tight you know one has to realize you know that the so-called natural rate of interest uh you know people like larry summers who said oh you know we have to go way above two and a half percent we have to go to four five six my studies have shown that really uh interest rates have fallen in the last 20 years around the world and we're already above neutral uh in terms of that so if we go to five percent we're going to absolutely have a very inverted curve and definitely guarantee a recession so they have to become uh they have to be cognizant that they're two and a half percent which is their long-term fed funds rate under a two percent inflation forward scenario is really too high it should really be about one and a half percent we're about out of time but very quickly you think that we have bottomed that the june low was the bottom for the market unless the fed puts us into a recession yes unless the fed you know keeps on saying oh my goodness oh you know we're getting cpi's that are just too high continue to grace continue to raise again we need some raising i'm not saying stop now but if they take a very aggressive 75 50 50 to you know movement up to four or four and a half five percent i think they're gonna they're they're gonna be sorry that they've been so tight