The global economy is subject to more violent and frequent shocks, says Mohamed El-Erian

요약 보기

이란 사태로 인한 유가 충격이 시장 기본 시나리오(일시적·가역적 충격, 80% 확률)와 달리 실제로는 약 50% 수준으로 더 위험하며, 세계 경제는 충격이 잦아지고 격해지는 구조. 공급망은 스위치처럼 즉시 재가동되지 않아 수주~수개월 걸리며, 경기 성장률은 약 0.5%p 낮고 인플레이션은 약 1%p 높아질 것으로 전망. 유럽 중앙은행은 금리 인상 가능성, 미 연준은 동결 후 관망 예상. 정치적 이유로 트럼프가 물러설 가능성은 있으나 이스라엘·이란 설득이 필요하다고 지적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Joining us is Mohamed El-Erian at the table. The Warren current professor at the practice of lso chief economic advisor at Allianz. Good morning to you. We're all trying to make sense of what's going on in Iran, the price of oil, what it ultimately means to the economy, and what it ultimately means to the price of stocks.

02. What do you think? So, start with what the what the market thinks. The market thinks that this will be a temporary and reversible shock. Because after all, we threw everything at the US economy last year, and the economy proved incredibly resilient. So, this will be the play once again. Okay. However, this time around we are this is coming on top of a few things that are adding up.

03. An uncertain labor market, affordability concerns, you have three distinct sources of financial fragility, and you have inflation that it was already heading up, which limits policy flexibility. So, I see the sort of central scenario that's an 80% probability in markets about 50%. The bigger question

04. You see an 80% scenario in markets at 50%. What does that mean? that's the the baseline right now in markets of a temporary and reversible reversible shock. it's 80%? Is it 80%? But, you're saying you think it's actually 50%? Correct. And there's a bigger question that we see, which is we got to understand that this global economy is subject to more violent and more frequent shocks.

05. And there's a really good reason for that. We've lost the unifying themes. So, we just have to be ready for a lot of volatility this year. And so, when you think about this 80%, you think the market's at 80% in terms of this being resolved in two or three weeks from now in a in a good place. Correct.

06. And your 50% basis is based upon what? It's based simply that while the market nets things out, the economy compounds them. Mhm. So, if you put one shock after another after another, you lose financial resilience, you lose human resilience, and your ability to bounce back is less. And we uh have thrown a lot at this economy in the last 12 months.

07. And right now, between the labor market, between the inflation dynamics, and between what's happening in the financial markets, there's reasons to be less Do you think there's any chance that things get worse, meaningfully worse in the Middle East? Meaning, uh China looks at this and says, "Oh my goodness, we we can't have this anymore." And and somehow they try to intervene or get involved in some way that we haven't even thought about yet.

08. So, you had Jared on earlier today, and I was listening carefully to him because I have a lot of respect for how he thinks about these issues. I think the point he made made about un- asymmetrical wars have an unpredictable element to them that you have to take seriously. And that is what why the tail, the left tail, is so big here, because there is this element of unpredictability.

09. Okay, but let me throw in a different political like a domestic political issue, which is this president has been very cognizant, to his credit, of what's going on in our economy here. And so, there's part of me that wonders whether he could look at what's happening and say, "You know what? I I wanted to do this for two or three weeks or four weeks.

10. I still There's still stuff I want to do on the ground, but you know what? I I I can't have it this way, and politically it's going to be bad for me. It's going to be bad for Republicans. We're going to the midterms. I can't have oil prices at these numbers." And then he steps away. What do you think the chances are that that happens?

11. That's certainly possible, but he also needs to convince two other parties to step away, Israel and Iran, and they have different agendas at this point. So, that's that's point number one. Second, he's already aware of this because he said over the over the weekend the higher oil price is a price that's worth paying.

12. However, it compounds the affordability issues. So, he's going to keep an eye on that. The one thing I would stress is we've got to stop thinking that oil supplies and and and supply chains are like an on-off switch. You can't turn it back on. If the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar stop production, it would take weeks to resume production.

13. Part of the reason they're stopping production is they are so they're filled to the brim. They have nowhere else to store this. They've reduced production. They haven't stopped it yet. But it would be Look, if if you can get the ships moving again, you can start kind of quickly unloading some of that stuff that's been building up in the in the meantime.

14. If you can get the ships moving again, if you can get new ships coming in, Your point is what what's the time frame for when this is like oh boy, this is It is weeks and months. It's not days. I mean, there's this assumption in the market it is days. And we seem to have forgotten the lesson of COVID is when you impose a sudden stop on supply chains, things are in the wrong place when you want to start them again.

15. The The end for COVID when we had these problems was that um economies cratered. Do you expect that to be the case this time around if Are you expecting an economic downturn to the point of recession based on what we've seen happen? No, I'm expecting that GDP growth will be about half a percent lower than would have been otherwise.

16. I'm expecting inflation will be a percent higher, and I'm expecting those central banks in Europe that have a single mandate are going to be hiking rates. And that's what the market also expects right now. What do you think the US Federal Reserve is going to do as a result? I think they will just stay unchanged and wait and see.

17. No one wants to repeat the mistake of the 2021 transitory inflation call. No one wants to repeat that mistake. A percentage point higher in inflation? Than it would have been otherwise, yes. That's over three That's like Yeah, three to three and a half percent. Three and a half percent. For how long?

18. Transitory? Um I don't like that word because that word encourages all sorts of of bad behaviors. Um I think that if you look at the average for the year, we will be about 3% for the year.