저자: VincentDesiano · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥이 2월 9일 14800 저항을 돌파하며 상승 추세일이 나타났고, 엔비디아가 260달러 핵심 저항을 돌파하면서 불 플래그 돌파 매매(콜옵션 13계약, 약 $1,300 수익)를 실행했다. 다만 최근 이런 지속 상승 셋업은 드물고 실패 돌파가 더 잦아 과신하면 안 된다고 강조했다. 방어적 손절·빠른 탈출 원칙을 함께 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Today we're gonna go ahead and break down a trade setup that I took yesterday on NVIDIA. This trade setup I haven't been able to find for a very long time in the price action we've been seeing in this market. As you guys know, the continuation moves have been very difficult to find, and yesterday we finally got some continuation on NVIDIA after it broke above a very key $260 resistance.
There was a really strong bull flag breakout intraday. I scaled into this trade because I found the setup I believed in, one that looked very strong for continuation, and it finally worked out. However, I definitely feel the trade I'm going to show you today is an anomaly in this market. I don't see these setups as often as I wish, and as I once did. These bull flag breakouts with very strong continuation have been extremely hard to find, so this is an anomaly-type trade that I definitely don't want to get my hopes up on. I don't want to get aggressive on these setups even though it worked yesterday with NVIDIA, because I haven't been seeing it work out as much as I'd like.
So I'm going to show you this NVIDIA trade, why I got in, why I scaled into it, and why I thought it looked good. But I also want to make sure that I myself and you guys understand the difficulty in this market right now, and how the setups we once saw, these beautiful bull flag breakouts with very strong continuation, are a bit of a rarity right now.
Let's jump into this trade. If you enjoy the video, make sure to press the bell below so you know every time I post.
Before we jump into the NVIDIA trade, I want to preface why we got some strength yesterday and why NVIDIA had continuation, and that comes down to the Nasdaq. If we jump into the Nasdaq chart, yesterday was Wednesday, and we got a very nice move on the Nasdaq. Here are the last two weeks of the Nasdaq. Yesterday we finally got a break out of the previous resistance around 14,800, and we had a day that trended to the upside. We haven't seen a day that trended up for the majority of the session in a very long time. Usually we get very large intraday moves and very choppy price action. Maybe it pushes higher, but the continuation just isn't there.
Yesterday, on the five-minute chart, we can see it was a very nice uptrending market. When we get uptrending markets like that, it makes it so much easier to find trade setups. These are the days I want to focus on trading, the days when trading becomes a little easier and gives you a bit more of an edge, rather than trying to trade days that look like this, very choppy days with very large intraday volatility swings. Those days are very difficult, and I try to stay away from them as best I can. But when I see a day like yesterday on the Nasdaq, those are the days I try to take opportunity.
I think this is somewhat of an anomaly-type trade because we haven't been seeing these kinds of days in the overall market. We haven't been seeing uptrends or downtrends that stay consistent all day. What we've mostly been seeing is a morning dip, followed by an afternoon spike, followed by an afternoon dip, all over the place, and very difficult to trust anything for an extended period. With that said, we got that Nasdaq strength yesterday, and that's why NVIDIA set up a very nice setup for me.
Here's NVIDIA's five-minute chart, with the EMAs and after-hours grayed out, so we can see exactly what happened. NVIDIA had a fantastic day. Why did it get a lot of upside? It broke over a very key $260 level, right here. On the four-hour chart, $260 was a major breakout zone. It was a previous high that we broke above, and when we saw that action we got a lot of upside support, and we also got support from the overall Nasdaq.
Yesterday NVIDIA was a dream. These are the days I miss on NVIDIA, the days we were used to in 2021, when we'd get beautiful upside and could make very nice trades off continuation. These days are becoming few and far between, and you have to know that and play defense. We got the big move early in the morning, and I didn't catch it. I didn't trust it, because we've seen what's happened in this market. It's very hard to trust those early moves, and very hard to know whether continuation will come. We got the continuation yesterday, and after seeing the move all the way up from around $256 to around $263, I gained some confidence to take a flag breakout trade once I saw both the Nasdaq and NVIDIA had actual continuation behind them.
Here's the trade. It was about a $1,300 winner. Let me zoom in so you can see where I got in. My first entry was around $1203, right around here. I'll switch to the one-minute chart so you can see the entries better, then go back to the five-minute.
I started getting in right here, around the $1203 candle, as we crept back above the 9 EMA and held this little retest level on NVIDIA. You can see a previous-high retest where we held the $261 level. I really liked how we held that previous high. I saw us start to hold up and begin building a flag pattern. There's your flag, and there's your hold. So at $1203, I got in with five contracts, added five more at $1204, and three more at $1207. I was adding to this play because I was looking to catch an actual bull flag breakout, which is like a unicorn these days, and we actually got it.
On 13 contracts I started scaling out at about a dollar per contract, from $12.16 through $12.20. $12.16 was this candle, and $12.20 was this one. I added five more contracts at $12.21, right here, when I started to see us flag again. I'd already been up nicely on the trade, so I added back and looked for another flag breakout. These are the kinds of flag breakouts I'm used to in this market. At $12.21 I added five contracts as I tried to get another breakout, but look at what happened on that breakout: we got a push, and then an instant stall. When I saw that stall, I got out almost as fast as I got in, losing one cent on the contract at $12.22. I ended up scaling all out at $12.22, for about a dollar per contract on 13 contracts. It was about a $1,300 winner.
If I go back to the five-minute chart, you'll see how clean this looked: the flag breakout, back to the 9 EMA, back to the retest level, and it worked. This is a trade I love to take, but I haven't been finding them as recently or as often as I'd like. Nice breakout continuation, a good options trade, very nice premium increases on the move. I was able to capitalize on this flag breakout.
I also want to show you what the chart looked like before the move happened. Around 12:06 I posted this chart in the chat. Right here, a little flag breakout formed right before the move started, around 12 o'clock. I posted it in the chat to see if it would start working. Around 12:10, that's where the chart was when we got the breakout. When I saw that candle push above the flag pattern, it gave me the confidence that we actually had continuation. This is a setup that traditionally works very well, and I wanted to see if I could take advantage of it in this market. Even so, I was slightly concerned it would be another classic failed breakout. I managed my risk as best I could, but when I saw it push, I wanted to add, and that's why I ended up with such a large position. We really started to see that move.
So it's a really nice setup and an NVIDIA trade I'm very happy with: a beautiful five-minute flag breakout. I hope to see more of this in the market, but I wanted to share the trade with you today. If you see setups like this, very nice five-minute flags where the 9 EMA holds and the retest holds, it's definitely worth keeping an eye out for, especially if the Nasdaq looks strong and the SPY looks strong at the same time. These setups can be very lucrative if you get the continuation.
If you don't get the continuation, you want to be out as fast as you got in. If those candles start to fail, if you don't see that full-bodied green candle keep going higher, that's when you want to get out and move away, because a failure would be an ugly scenario. If you get the push through, and on the one-minute chart you see the push through right here and then this candle instantly fails, that's when you know we don't want to be in this. The flag breakout isn't working, and we're not getting the continuation. But when you see these one-minute green candles starting to push, getting some volume and strength, that's when you want to trust the move. If you see it fail, if you see that stuff, you don't want to be in it. And that is a failed breakout, which has been happening more often than not lately.
So I want to show you this trade, but I also want to warn you: if you're watching this video, be careful with these setups in this market. Make sure the Nasdaq is strong. Make sure you're getting a trending market before trusting something like this. See if you can find these intraday, see if they work out, maybe don't take them and just see what happens. Do some backtesting on this little flag breakout. I'm sure a lot of you already know this setup, but I wanted to share this one because it was a beautiful setup and it actually worked out. Hopefully we see more of it in the future.
Thank you for watching. If you enjoyed the video, make sure to subscribe and press the bell below so you're alerted every time I post. If you want to come to the pre-market live streams, we had a ton of people in there today, about 2,200, which is double what we usually have. Make sure to press like, subscribe, and the bell, and I hope to see you in the next one. Peace.
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