원문 보기
Inflation, or kind of the house views, inflation is going to be persistently higher. Many, many businesses can do very well in a world of 3 percent inflation. And the kind of companies shut down, we're going into what looks like a highly probable government shutdown, we're going to have a data shutdown, right?
All these little government agencies that put out data that the Federal Reserve relies on to decide whether to, you know, adjust interest rates, they're going to lose access to that data. So we're going to have this sort of like, kind of dark period. Uh, we have Probably the worst technical environment in our lifetimes for supply of bonds versus buyer bonds, right?
We have China selling. We have Russia, to the extent they own U. S. securities and more, selling. We have Saudi Arabia selling. What's the financial equivalent of a grand slam in baseball? It's Bill Ackman's legendary moves in the market. The powerhouse behind Pershing Square Capital isn't spooked by inflation.
He might just be crafting a strategy around it. Let's get a deeper dive. Meet Bill Ackman, the financial maestro who dances with billions as if they're just notes on a page. Handling 18 billion. Just another day at the office. Meanwhile, I get dizzy balancing my grocery budget. I declare bankruptcy!
Basically, you're not being paid enough to enter into a 30 year contract with the U. S. government at a fixed price. You know, 4. 7 or wherever it is now. Um, it doesn't make sense in a world where we think structural inflation is north of 3%. For the, for the very long term, you know, we went through this very unusual period with extremely low interest rates, um, you know, where everything just got cheaper and the, you know, the, you know, since the financial crisis, you know, the effort of the federal reserve was to make sure we didn't have deflation, the aspirational goals to get to 2 percent inflation and then the pandemic and, you know, trillions of fiscal stimulus, the psychological stimulus of being free to and to roam after being locked up.
You know, all of these factors coming at once kind of lit inflation and we still have this massive deficit spending. We still have infrastructure spending there and the government selling literally hundreds of billions of dollars of securities, uh, bills. And, and, and at some point they're going to have to sell more and more of the longer instruments.
And if you look at the balance sheet of the federal reserve, it's. It's, it's an imprudent balance sheet. When Bill raises an eyebrow at inflation, you know something's up. U. S. debt is sitting pretty at 34 trillion dollars. If you're thinking of a nationwide bake sale to chip in, trust me, we'd need a lot of cupcakes.
Future predictions? A jaw dropping 70 trillion dollars, the government's wallet seems to be leaking, but there's more to the story. Before we go any further, here's a small request. Every time you hit that subscribe button, you're diving deeper into the world of cutting edge insights and hot takes. And about that like button, well, think of it this way.
I've pivoted my potential stock investments to pour my hard earned money into this channel exclusively for you, Token Nation. So, when you hit like, it's more than just approval for the content. You're backing an investor who's ventured into the realm of spreading the godspell of investing. Let's call it a mutual investment, shall we?
Each like pushes this channel a notch higher on the YouTube Stock Exchange. Help us soar. Give us that virtual high five. Okay, back to the video. While we're stressing about our next credit card payment, Uncle Sam's annual budget sees a quarter of four trillion dollars going just for interest. Imagine blowing your weekend getaway fund on gas alone, but they have a secret weapon, printing more bucks.
And Bill? He's pointing out the silver lining. The negative equity market. How could you have a positive view of stocks if you think that that's the outcome for bonds? Yields. Because if you own high quality, uh, key is owning businesses that have pricing power. Businesses that can do well in a world of, and by the way, many businesses can do well in a world of 3 percent inflation.
The key is, it's hard to manage a business in a world where inflation is volatile. Or inflation is 8 percent or, you know, the kind of crazy numbers. Um, but many, many businesses can do very well in a world of 3 percent inflation. And the kind of companies we own, they're very much like royalties. You know, so we own Universal Music, which is a royalty on listening to music.
There's music playing out there. Universal's getting a fraction of a penny for every song, uh, you know, that's being streamed. Um, you know, Google. Google's a royalty. If you will, on people advertising, you know, on the web, right? Or on YouTube. Restaurant brands is a royalty on people eating at Burger King or any of their various concepts.
Hilton is a, I continue, you know, royalty on people staying in hotels and, and, uh, eating and drinking and going to events. The beauty of these kinds of businesses is, you know, actually inflation is ultimately their friend. Right, as long as they can keep their costs, as long as their costs don't inflate as quickly as their, as their revenues.
And I think the nature of those, so, so I, I feel comfortable owning those kinds of, uh, businesses, even if inflation remains high. And I need a little investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which, uh, I think together represent a little, maybe a little over 1 percent of the portfolio. But the rest of the port, those are really options on a recent, ultimate, uh, kind of, uh, government taking them out of conservatorship.
The balance of the portfolio, great businesses we think do well. in really any economic, political, or macro environment. Uh, and then we opportunistically hedge risks. And, uh, the two risks we've been concerned about really over the last, you know, it's a year and a half, energy prices, uh, and kind of the, the longer part of the curve, uh, the treasury curve becoming, uh, you know, rates moving up.
Ready for a nugget of wisdom, Ackman style? Inflation might be the big bad wolf for some, but for savvy investors, it's the golden goose. So, which stocks shine in inflationary times? Ever hear of royalty centric businesses? Think royalties, think passive income, like getting a cut every time your catchphrase becomes a trend.
In this arena, Google and Universal Music wear the crown. Their melody? Ka ching. Monopoly like brands also deserve a mention. They're the rock stars of their sectors. NVIDIA is the tech world's lead guitarist, with chips that sound borderline futuristic. And hey, let's give a shout out to ChatGPT. Bill's insider tip?
Bet on businesses that travel light. They're the backpackers of the corporate realm. Chipotle's an ace example. They're all about that flawless burrito roll. Letting franchisees handle the property game became a different kind of investment. I would have been happy to have that as a, you know, maybe even a 2, 5 percent position, 3 percent position portfolio.
But that's not what we do. We don't collect 30 things. We put 3 percent of our capital we own. And we have 22 percent 25 percent of our capital in Universal Music. We have, uh, whatever, 60, 70 percent of our capital in, in Google, you know, these are businesses. We feel very comfortable. We can sleep at night at a very high confidence level, what they look like over a long period of time.
If a business doesn't meet those threshold characteristics or something about the business changes where we. You know, misunderstood the predictability of the business. We're happy to sell and find something else to do. And basically we took the Netflix losses, but the capital, if you will, and we invested in Google and it was a good decision and we're able to make a bigger investment in a company, have more confidence.
Investing isn't much different from dating. Know when to swipe right and when to bail. Consider Netflix, their 60 percent tumble in 2022 felt like a plot twist. Nobody saw coming with giants like Disney plus and HBO max elbowing in. The streaming wars are heating up. As for Netflix's gaming attempt, jury's still out.
Quick question, do you think that Netflix gaming has a chance? Comment below. And, oh, see those two videos popping up on your screen? We've packed it with financial goodness that's worth every second of your time. Think of it as the dessert after a hearty meal, indulgent and oh so satisfying. Click and dive in.
Comments 0